黑潮流域海温适应性观测敏感区诊断方法研究

敏感区诊断是适应性观测的关键问题,集合变换卡尔曼方法(EnsembleTransformKalmanFilter,ETKF)是目前主要的诊断方法之一。将集合变换卡尔曼方法应用于海洋环境适应性观测,根据ROMS海洋模式数据构建海表温度集合预报,以黑潮流域宫古海峡附近海域为验证区进行敏感区诊断计算,分析不同间隔时间条件下敏感区分布情况,结合模拟系统观测试验验证在敏感区进行适应性观测对预报质量的提升效果。结果表明,在诊断所得敏感区内添加观测能够提升预报质量;随时间间隔增大,敏感区向上游区域平移且预报质量提升效果减小;与在验证区整体添加观测相比,敏感区观测对预报质量提升效果基本相同并且观测成本明显减少。     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.     

我国资源利用现状及节约机制框架的构建

对于资源的态度无非"开源"、"节流"2种,"开源"由于其较高的成本和有限性使得"节流"逐渐受到人们的重视.资源的可持续性是一个长期困扰人类的全球性问题,尤其对我国这样的人多地少、资源匮乏的国度而言,更是关系到生存与发展的迫在眉睫的问题.在分析了我国能源、水、土地、矿产等资源利用特点及供求矛盾的基础上,提出了对我国建设资源节约型社会的关键是有效地激励与约束机制的观点,并且构建了从法律法规、政策、经济、监督等角度建立约束机制,从产权、经济和声誉的角度建立激励机制的思路.     

Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.     

A comprehensive approach to drought and desertification in Northern Nigeria

Drought has been a recurring feature of the arid and semi-arid areas of Nigeria. This paper reviews the extent, severity, and consequences of drought and desertification in Nigeria with particular emphasis on the northern part of the country. The haphazard manner in which these environmental hazards have been tackled is examined and a systematic approach for the formulation of a national policy is proposed. It is recommended that a detailed formulation and implementation of the proposed policy plan is imperative to mitigate the often devastating impacts of drought and desertification in the very prone areas of Nigeria. Until such is done, some areas of Nigeria will always be vulnerable to the whims of an inevitable climatic hazard of drought and associated land degradation in the form of desertification.     

Agricultural policy reforms and sustainable land management: a New Zealand case study

This paper examines the link between poverty and land management within the context of New Zealand's almost total removal of subsidies to agriculture since 1984. The impact of these policy changes is explored through the findings from a detailed study of sixteen farms in the North Island hill country. Stress is identified as a primary link between social damage and environmental degradation. This link reinforces the impact of other linkages expressed in reduced production, lower stocking rates, and reduced capital inputs. Deregulation is claimed to be good. This paper shows that in certain circumstances this is not so.     

Brazilian health regions and scales: A geographical perspective

Abstract:  This paper offers a geographical perspective on the way in which health regions have been defined and established in São Paulo as part of overall Brazilian health policy. To accomplish this, I first situate the Brazilian case in the international debate over the regionalization of health services. Second, I examine health regionalization in the case of São Paulo and show how the process is dynamic and complex, involving geographical scales that go well beyond the administrative boundaries of Brazilian municipalities.     

A comparison of single‐run pushover analysis techniques for seismic assessment of bridges

Traditional pushover analysis is performed subjecting the structure to monotonically increasing lateral forces with invariant distribution until a target displacement is reached; both the force distribution and target displacement are hence based on the assumption that the response is controlled by a fundamental mode, that remains unchanged throughout. However, such invariant force distributions cannot account for the redistribution of inertia forces caused by structural yielding and the associated changes in the vibration properties, including the increase of higher‐mode participation. In order to overcome such drawbacks, but still keep the simplicity of using single‐run pushover analysis, as opposed to multiple‐analyses schemes, adaptive pushover techniques have recently been proposed. In order to investigate the effectiveness of such new pushover schemes in assessing bridges subjected to seismic action, so far object of only limited scrutiny, an analytical parametric study, conducted on a suite of continuous multi‐span bridges, is carried out. The study seems to show that, with respect to conventional pushover methods, these novel single‐run approaches can lead to the attainment of improved predictions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于启发式图搜索的遥感影像道路半自动提取

启发式图搜索法用于线状目标识别的原理是：用图结构表示边缘点和边缘段，根据启发函数计算顶点权值，在图的路径上建立相应的代价函数，通过在图中搜索对应的最小代价的通道以找到最优路径。图搜索法是一种全局最优方法，它在受噪声影响较大时效果仍然较好。文中使用了启发式图搜索法（A*算法）实现了道路的半自动跟踪。它的基本思路是：首先利用自适应平滑滤波算子进行道路信息增强，然后对传统的道路数学模型进行了进一步的扩展，突出了对道路几何特性和辐射特性的描述，并依此构建图搜索的代价函数，实现了基于启发式图搜索法A*算法的道路半自动跟踪。经实验证明，该方法进行遥感影像的道路半自动提取效果较好。