Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

风急流对吕宋海峡黑潮路径变异的影响及其动力机制

为研究风急流对吕宋海峡处黑潮路径的影响,本文使用1.5层约化重力浅水模式,设置了与吕宋海峡跨度相接近的缺口宽度,考虑西边界流在西边界缺口处当处于迟滞过程的临界状态时,其路径受风急流影响的动力机制,并初步探讨了在实际海陆边界条件下,实际风急流对黑潮路径的影响。结果显示,理想情况下,当西边界流处在由入侵流态到跨隙流态转变的临界状态时,西风、南风以及西南风风急流可以激发西边界流由入侵流态转变为跨隙流态。当西边界流处在由跨隙流态向入侵流态转变的临界状态时,北风、东风以及东北风风急流可以激发西边界流由跨隙流态转变为入侵流态,并且在风急流消失后西边界流不能再恢复到初始流态。实际情况下,冬季风急流有利于黑潮入侵南海,夏季风急流有利于黑潮跨越吕宋海峡,这和理想情况下的模拟结果以及实际观测结果相一致,这对进一步研究南海北部的上层环流以及南海的质量、能量输送有重要意义。     

蒸发波导环境下风浪对电磁波传播影响的数值模拟研究

蒸发波导是一种特殊的大气波导,在其中传播的电磁波信号会被陷获在近海大气层中,实现超视距传播。受海表面温度、湿度、风速、微波频率等因素的影响,海洋蒸发波导环境中的微波传播特性起伏变化很大,规律十分复杂。以往的工作主要通过计算这些气象因素对蒸发波导条件下大气折射率剖面的影响来分析它们对路径损失的作用,其结果与实验数据仍有较大差异。本文在一定的蒸发波导条件下,利用一维分形海面模型产生海面"地形",将其作为抛物方程电磁波传播模型的边界条件进行计算,得到相应的路径损失,并与传统计算方法进行对比,分析了不同蒸发波导高度、不同频率及不同接收天线高度时的数值模拟情况,可为舰艇通信系统或者雷达系统的设计提供相应的依据。     

Spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of impervious surface evaporation in the Baiyangdian catchment from 1980 to 2020

Evaporation from impervious surfaces plays a vital role in the catchment water cycle. Exploring the spatiotemporal variation patterns and influencing mechanisms of impervious surface evaporation at the catchment scale can improve the understanding and evaluation of the evaporation process. This study downloaded 0.5 m resolution images of the Baiyangdian catchment (BYD) from Google Earth and used deep learning to identify impervious surfaces. This was used to revise impervious surfaces of the China land cover dataset in 1985 and 1990–2020. Potential evaporation (PET) from three types of impervious surfaces (roofs, ground affected or not affected by the building height) was calculated by modifying the parameters of the Penman–Monteith equation, and daily precipitation and water-storage capacity of impervious surfaces were taken into account to estimate impervious surface evaporation (E). The results showed that E values of the three types of impervious surfaces were between 72.1 and 178.2 mm/year and all exhibited the spatial distribution of high in the northwest and low in the southeast of the BYD in 1980–2020. Compared with that in 1980, in 2020, the cumulative evaporation (EAP) increased by 134.4%. The ratio of EAP to cumulative precipitation ranged from 3.0% to 6.9%, increasing significantly in a fluctuating manner. The increments in precipitation days and impervious surface area played a major role in the increase of EAP, and the decrease in precipitation was the fundamental reason for the increase in the proportion of impervious surface evaporation and water resource pressure in the BYD. Excluding the continuous evaporation from the remaining water can likely lead to underestimating the impervious surface evaporation. This study provides an efficient and reasonable novel approach for calculating impervious surface evaporation in long series and large-scale catchments.     

新疆塔额盆地各气象要素对水面蒸发影响的敏感性分析

水面蒸发敏感因素的判断,对于干旱区水资源的规划与利用具有重要指导意义。文章以新疆塔额盆地内的塔城市气象站1981—2010年资料为例,采用敏感系数法对研究区多年月均水面蒸发影响因素进行敏感性分析,并与关联分析法分析的结果对比。结果表明：在塔额盆地内,温度与水汽压二因素对水面蒸发影响最为敏感;基于敏感系数法的敏感因素研究结果与关联分析的结果基本一致,尤其在主要影响因子的判定上。     

1960年以来新疆地区蒸发皿蒸发与实际蒸发之间的关系

利用中国新疆地区1960-2005 年109 个设有蒸发皿蒸发观测的常规气象站资料, 并结 合不同驱动场和不同陆面模式的模拟结果, 对蒸发皿蒸发及模拟的实际蒸发的年、各个季节 的变化及其它们的相互联系进行了详细的分析和讨论。结果发现, 在过去的46 年里, 年蒸发 皿蒸发总体上都表现为明显的下降趋势, 而实际蒸发在总体上显著上升, 与蒸发皿蒸发的变 化趋势相反。在80 年代中后期, 蒸发皿蒸发、实际蒸发和降水的转折点(1986 年) 一致, 进 一步说就是无论在转折点的前后, 降水增加的转折性变化与模拟的实际蒸发的转折性增加变 化一致, 而与蒸发皿蒸发减小的转折性变化相反, 这表明, 在新疆地区, 蒸发皿蒸发和实际 蒸散之间具有相反的变化关系, 这支持Brutsaert and Parlange 提出的蒸发皿蒸发和实际蒸散 之间具有互补相关关系(变化趋势相反) 的理论。分析气温、降水、湿度、云量和日照时数等 环境变量的变化趋势发现： 降水、云量等表征大气中水分特征的变量表现为明显的上升趋势, 这也间接的证明了蒸发皿蒸发和实际蒸散之间存在相反的关系, 而与各个环境变量之间相关 系数的分析则表明, 气温日较差、风速、低云量和降水是与蒸发皿蒸发和实际蒸发关系最紧 密的环境因子, 它们的变化可能是导致蒸发皿蒸发和蒸散量变化的原因。     

基于灰色关联分析与RBF神经网络的水面蒸发量预测

利用灰色关联度法分析了影响水面蒸发量的主要气象因素,并通过RBF神经网络建立了水面蒸发量的经验预测模型.计算结果表明,所建立的模型简单易行,精度较高,可以应用于生产实践中.     

膨胀土收缩开裂特性研究

在干燥环境中,由于蒸发失水,膨胀土发生收缩,表面容易产生纵横交错的裂隙网络(龟裂)。龟裂的产生会极大弱化土体的工程性质,并导致各种工程问题。随着极端干旱气候的频发,膨胀土龟裂问题将会越来越多,越来越显著。开展龟裂研究对揭示龟裂现象的本质规律和指导膨胀土地区的工程实践有重要意义。龟裂的形成和发展是一个动态的过程,与土中水分的蒸发速率、应力状态、收缩特性等直接相关:龟裂形成时水分蒸发处于常速率阶段; 吸力和抗拉强度是制约龟裂形成的两个关键力学参数,当土体中的吸力引起的张拉应力超过土体的抗拉强度时,龟裂便会产生; 龟裂是孔隙发生收缩的直观表现。总体上,力的作用和收缩空间是土体龟裂形成的两个必要条件。此外,膨胀土龟裂具有非常复杂的发生发展过程,受土质学、土力学、土结构、试验条件和方法等许多因素的影响。龟裂定量分析是龟裂研究的重要内容之一,能为龟裂机理研究及相关理论模型的建立提供必要参数。计算机图形处理技术具有效率高、操作性强、精度高等优点,为龟裂定量分析提供了强有力的工具。目前关于土体龟裂研究还存在许多不足之处,在今后的工作中,应该重视龟裂形成和发展过程的动态特征,围绕与土体龟裂相关的水-土作用关系、力学机制、收缩变形机制、大尺度现场试验和三维观测分析技术等方面开展更多的针对性研究,综合考虑龟裂形成过程中的土质学、土力学和土结构因素,结合宏观现象与微观分析,建立土体龟裂的理论体系。     

中国区域蒸发潜力不均性发展趋势及其气候成因分析

气象台站20 cm蒸发皿观测资料自然正交分解显示,1980~2000年中国区域气温显著增加期间,长江中游至河套、东北等区域地表年蒸发潜力呈增加趋势;相反在长江以南、东部和西南等地区年蒸发潜力呈下降趋势.辐射观测资料分析结果表明,自20世纪70年代中国区域太阳入射能整体呈下降趋势,因此对于蒸发潜力增加的地区,太阳辐射产生的热力作用并不是决定蒸发潜力发展趋势的唯一原因.通过对大气风动力和干燥力等因子的分析证实,大气动力作用是造成中国区域地表蒸发潜力空间不均性分布的主要原因.同时1980~2000年NOAA-AVHRR遥感数据分析结果也表明,地表覆盖类型的变换以及植被覆盖率的下降,引发的地表热力作用和地表物理性质变化,是造成蒸发潜力空间分布不均性加大的另一项重要原因.     

长河坝—黄金坪水库区域地震台网监测能力分析

位于四川省甘孜藏族自治州康定市内大渡河干流的长河坝—黄金坪水电站,为大渡河流域开发中,以长河坝、大岗山、瀑布沟等形成主要梯级格局开发方案中,"三库22级"水电站中的第10和11级电站,其地震监测台网也采用梯级设计方式,长河坝—黄金坪上下游水库地震监测台网统一设计、建设及监测,共享同一地震监测能力。通过对监测设备的技术指标、台基地噪声水平和震级—频度对数关系的分析,结果表明,长河坝—黄金坪水库区域地震固定台站建成后,地震监测能力达到并优于设计的理论监测能力,地震监测震级达到下限为M_L 0.5的设计要求。