过去气候演化的阶段性和突变

地球系统的历史信息是评估全球变化的一项重要因素。前些年，过去气候研究中发现了气候的突然变化的现象，突变证据大多出现在冰期，或由冰期向间冰期的过渡时期，并认为这是冰盖的成冰与溶解过程造成海水铅直运动的结果。近些年，过去气候研究还发现在间冰期中也出现突变。我国的历史文献、冰芯和沉积的高分辨率的古气候恢复工作发现近２０００年来中国气候明显存在着突变事件。因此，这给我们带来了新的问题，即间冰期气候的稳定性问题。如果气候突变的证据增多，那意味着气候系统很可能按两种方式运行     

子波变换在全球气候多时间尺度变化分析中的应用

用墨西哥帽子波变换分析南，北半球及全球气候变化的多时间尺度结构，突变点，结果表明，气候变化在不同时尺度下具有不同的冷结构和突变点，南、北半球气候变化有较大差异。说明子波变换方法是气候变化研究的有力工具。     

云南省五月雨量转折突变的研究

本文应用时间序列转折突点的检测方法，对云南省18个代表站1951年至1999年5月雨量的年际和年代际转折突变进行了初步研究，结果表明，云南5月降水不存在明显的年际转折突变，但存在明显的年代际转折突变；云南大部分地区5月雨量在50年代发生了少雨转折突变，60年代发生了多雨转折突变，70年代发生了少雨转折突变；80年代以后云南大部分地区5月雨量又发生一次多雨转折突变。     

High-frequency climatic oscillations recorded in a Holocene coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

A detailed study of the Goniopora reef profile at Dengloujiao, Xuwen County, Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea suggests that a series of high-frequency, large-amplitude and abrupt cold events occurred during the Holocene Hypsithermal, an unusual phenomenon termed “Leizhou Events” in this paper. This period (corresponding to ¹⁴C age of 6.2-6.7 kaBP or calendar age of 6.7-7.2 kaBP), when the climatic conditions were ideal for coral reefs to develop, can be divided into at least nine stages. Each stage (or called a “climate optimum”), lasting about 20 to 50 a, was terminated by an abrupt cold nap and (or) a sea-level lowering event in winter, leading to widespread emergence and death of the Goniopora corals, and growth discontinuities on the coral surface. Such a cyclic process resulted in the creation of a >4m thick Goniopora reef flat. During this period, the crust subsided periodically but the sea level was rising. The reef profile provides valuable archives for the study of decadal-scale mid-Holocene climatic oscillations in the tropical area of South China. Our results provide new evidence for high-frequency climate instability in the Holocene Hypsithermal, and challenge the traditional understanding of Holocene climate.     

滑动平均差检测法的提出及验证

时间序列突变点的检测研究是当前气候变化问题的关键环节,其方法和成果也较多,传统的检测方法因统计量结构不合理、假设条件不符合实际以及受主观因素影响等,结果常常缺乏可信度。本文提出一种新的时间序列突变点的检测方法——滑动平均差检测法,将该方法分别用理想时间序列和实际观测序列进行应用检验,并与现有常用的4种突变检验方法比较,发现滑动平均差法具有：① 结构简单、物理意义明确;② 检测突变点更精确;③ 能同时检测出所有突变点的突变位置和其突变强度3个明显的优势。综合利用滑动平均差检测法和传统的4种方法,对黄河流域几个重点水文控制站实测输沙量资料进行突变分析,结果表明：黄河上游输沙量在1986年发生突变,黄河中游输沙量在1979年和1996年发生突变,华县站和潼关站输沙量在1979年、1996年和2003年发生突变,造成输沙量突变的主要因素为水利工程建设和大规模水土保持措施等人类活动。     

孟加拉国农业利用强度增加、土地利用/覆盖变化和土地退化

在实地采访、地块土地利用/覆盖调查和1 260个土样的收集和实验室分析等野外工作的基础上,对比分析了1984—1985年和2003—2004年265个家户的人口、农业系统、土地利用和土壤质量数据,研究了孟加拉国6个村庄农业诱导强度增强对土地和土壤质量的影响。1984—2004年家户和土质数据的百分比变化用来构建诱导强度增强模型和土地退化模型中的统计变量和土地退化指标。结果表明：研究区种植强度和土地生产力的增加主要是由于低压泵灌溉的普及,化肥和杀虫剂的使用以及水稻、蔬菜和虾生产的多元化高产。诱导强度增强模型可以解释研究区81%的种植强度增量和73%的土地生产力增量。人口压力和市场驱动也诱发了农业利用强度的增加;环境约束起到了一定制约作用;低压泵灌溉等应对干旱的技术也对农业增产有一定贡献。然而动力耕作机、低压泵灌溉和化学物质的持续利用再加上除草性水稻、蔬菜和虾的频繁耕作和养殖已经导致土壤结构、质地和化学属性的退化,生产力也有所降低。利用强度越大的土地退化现象越严重,生产力下降得也更多。土地的不断退化将有可能会引发孟加拉国的马尔萨斯危机。     

1981-2017年西藏“一江两河”流域5cm地温及其界限温度时空变化特征

利用西藏“一江两河”流域9个气象站点1981-2017年逐日5 cm地温资料,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了该流域5 cm地温及其界限温度的时空分布、突变特征,并探讨了地温变化率与经纬度、海拔高度之间的关系。结果表明：“一江两河”流域年、季平均5 cm地温总体呈自西向东递增分布,并随海拔升高而降低。1981-2017年流域月平均5 cm地温均呈显著升高趋势,升温率为0.23~0.98 ℃/10a,以4月最大,7月最小。年平均5 cm地温以0.58 ℃/10a的速率显著升高,各季地温也都趋于上升,其中春季升温率最大,夏季最小。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃表现为初日提早、终日推迟、持续日数延长、积温增加的年际变化趋势。同样,≥ 14 ℃界限温度也有类似的变化,但变幅比≥ 12 ℃的要大。在10年际变化尺度上,流域年、季平均5 cm地温表现为逐年代际升高的变化特征。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃和≥ 14 ℃界限温度在21世纪前10年呈初日提早、持续日数延长和积温偏多的态势。M-K检验显示,除夏季外,其他三季平均5 cm地温均发生了气候突变,其中春季和秋季的突变点分别出现在2004年和2005年,而冬季发生在1997年;年平均5 cm地温在2003年出现了突变。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃初日的突变点在2004年,终日发生突变时间较晚,为2014年;持续日数突变点较早,在1997年;积温在2005年发生了突变。而5 cm地温≥ 14 ℃界限温度的突变点发生在2004年前后。相对于气温的变化,5 cm地温的升温幅度更大,突变时间较晚。     

Quantifying annual land-cover change and vegetation greenness variation in a coastal ecosystem using dense time-series Landsat data

Land-cover change may affect water and carbon cycles when transitioning from one land-cover category to another (land-cover conversion, LCC) or when the characteristics of the land-cover type are altered without changing its overall category (land-cover modification, LCM). Given the increasing availability of time-series remotely sensed data for earth monitoring, there has been increased recognition of the importance of accounting for both LCC and LCM to study annual land-cover changes. In this study, we integrated 1,513 time-series Landsat images and a change-updating method to identify annual LCC and LCM during 1986–2015 in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province, China. The purpose was to quantify their contributions to land-cover changes and impacts on the amount of vegetation. The results show that LCC and LCM can be successfully distinguished with an overall accuracy of 90.0%. LCM accounted for 22% and 40.5% of the detected land-cover changes in reclaimed and inland areas, respectively, during 1986–2015. In the reclaimed area, LCC occurred mostly in muddy tidal flats, construction land, aquaculture ponds, and freshwater herbaceous land, whereas LCM occurred mostly in freshwater herbaceous land, Spartina alterniflora, and muddy tidal flats. In the inland area, both LCC and LCM were concentrated in forest and dryland. Overall, LCC had a mean magnitude of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) change similar to that of LCM. However, LCC had a positive effect and LCM had a negative effect on NDVI change in the reclaimed area. Both LCC and LCM in the inland area had negative impacts on vegetation greenness, but LCC resulted in larger NDVI change magnitude. Impacts of LCC and LCM on vegetation greenness were quantified for each land-cover type. This study provided a methodological framework to take both LCC and LCM into account when analyzing land-cover changes and quantified their effects on coastal ecosystem vegetation.     

Assessing the optimal preprocessing steps of MODIS time series to map cropping systems in Mato Grosso,Brazil

The adoption of new cropping practices such as integrated Crop-Livestock systems (iCL) aims at improving the land use sustainability of the agricultural sector in the Brazilian Amazon. The emergence of such integrated systems, based on crop and pasture rotations over and within years, challenges the remote sensing community who needs to implement accurate and efficient methods to process satellite image time series (SITS) in order to come up with a monitoring protocol. These methods generally include a SITS preprocessing step which can be time consuming. The aim of this study is to assess the importance of preprocessing operations such as temporal smoothing and computation of phenological metrics on the mapping of main cropping systems (i.e. pasture, single cropping, double cropping and iCL), with a special emphasis on the iCL class. The study area is located in the state of Mato Grosso, an important producer of agriculture commodities located in the Southern Brazilian Amazon. SITS were composed of a set of 16-day composites of MODIS Vegetation Indices (MOD13Q1 product) covering a one year period between 2014 and 2015. Two widely used classifiers, i.e. Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), were tested using five data sets issued from a same SITS but with different preprocessing levels: (i) raw NDVI; (ii) raw NDVI + raw EVI; (iii) smoothed NDVI; (iv) NDVI-derived phenometrics; (v) raw NDVI + phenometrics. Both RF and SVM classification results showed that the “raw NDVI + raw EVI” data set achieved the highest performance (RF OA = 0.96, RF Kappa = 0.94, SVM OA = 0.95, SVM Kappa = 0.93), followed closely by the “raw NDVI” and the “raw NDVI + phenometrics” datasets. The “NDVI-derived phenometrics” alone achieved the lowest accuracies (RF OA = 0.58 and SVM OA = 0.66). Considering that the implementation of preprocessing steps is computationally expensive and does not provide significant gains in terms of classification accuracy, we recommend to use raw vegetation indices for mapping cropping practices in Mato Grosso, including the integrated Crop-Livestock systems.     

Holocene abrupt climate shifts and mid-Holocene drought intervals recorded in Barkol Lake of Northern Xinjiang of China

Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sediment core taken from Barkol Lake in the northern Xinjiang of Northwest China was analyzed at 1 cm interval for grain-size distribution. Abrupt climate shifts revealed by the grain-size proxy occurred at ca 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, 5.6, 8.0 cal kyr B.E, which were well correlated to both the abrupt shifts recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean （NAO） and the Holocene sea surface temperature （SST） cooling events in the Arabian Ocean. The correlation indicated that the climatic changes in the extreme arid Northwest China were associated with the NAO, probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds probably modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high- pressure system （winter monsoon）, and played an important role in climate change of Northwest China. Moreover, an evident drought interval during the middle Holocene was also revealed by grain-size proxy.