Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.     

A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China

This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past 20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Chlorophyll modulation of mixed layer thermodynamics in a mixed-layer isopycnal General Circulation Model — An example from Arabian Sea and equatorial Pacific

Western tropical Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and the equatorial Pacific are known as regions of intense bio-chemical-physical interactions: the Arabian Sea has the largest phytoplankton bloom with seasonal signal, while the equatorial Pacific bloom is perennial with quasi-permanent upwelling. Here, we studied three dimensional ocean thermodynamics comparing recent ocean observation with ocean general circulation model (OPYC) experiment combined with remotely sensed chlorophyll pigment concentrations from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS). Using solar radiation parameterization representing observations that a higher abundance of chlorophyll increases absorption of solar irradiance and heating rate in the upper ocean, we showed that the mixed layer thickness decreases more than they would be under clear water conditions. These changes in the model mixed layer were consistent with Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) observations during the 1994-1995 Arabian Sea experiment and epi-fluorescence microscopy (EFM) on samples collected during Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Study (EPOCS) in November, 1988. In the Arabian Sea, as the chlorophyll concentrations peak in October (3 mg/m³) after the summer plankton bloom induced by coastal upwelling, the chlorophyll induced biological heating enhanced the sea surface temperature (SST) by as much as 0.6‡C and sub-layer temperature decreases and sub-layer thickness increases. In the equatorial Pacific, modest concentrations of chlorophyll less than 0.3 mg/m³ is enough to introduce a meridional differential heating, which results in reducing the equatorial mixed layer thickness to more than 20 m. The anomalous meridional tilting of the mixed layer bottom enhances off equatorial westward geostrophic currents. Consequently, the equatorial undercurrent transports more water from west to east. We proposed that these numerical model experiments with use of satellite andin situ ocean observations are consistent under three dimensional ocean circulation theory combined with solar radiation transfer process.     

县市级政府决策信息系统的开发应用:专业GIS 软件SK set V4 .0功能介绍———以贵州沿河土家族自治县资源遥感信息系统为例

SK setV4.0是中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所GIS中心2001年4月开发成功的、具有自主板权的专业GIS平台软件。它集成了现今较为先进的组件、控件重用，面向对象编程等技术，并以美国Inprise公司的BorladnC^ Builder编译软件为开发平台，提供了全中文菜单环境，不仅具有基本信息和多图层查询、相关分析动态监测、多因子分析、图斑编辑、自动演示、系统维护等功能，而且还具有快速响应的工具条、友好的对话框和较强的纠错机制，很适合缺乏专业GIS人才的县市级政府管理部门使用。文中还以贵州省沿河县资源遥感信息系统为例，对SK setV4.0的功能和使用方法进行了具体的介绍。     

Anatomy of shelf deltas at the edge of a prograding Eocene shelf margin, Spitsbergen

Abstract Although shelf‐edge deltas are well‐imaged seismic features of Holocene and Pleistocene shelf margins, documented outcrop analogues of these important sand‐prone reservoirs are rare. The facies and stratigraphic architecture of an outcropping shelf‐edge delta system in the Eocene Battfjellet Formation, Spitsbergen, is presented here, as well as the implications of this delta system for the generation of sand‐prone, shelf‐margin clinoforms. The shelf‐edge deltas of the Battfjellet Formation on Litledalsfjellet and Høgsnyta produced a 3–5 × 15 km, shelf edge‐attached, slope apron (70 m of sandstones proximally, tapering to zero on the lower slope). The slope apron consists of distributary channel and mouth‐bar deposits in its shelf‐edge reaches, passing downslope to slope channels/chutes that fed turbiditic lobes and spillover sheets. In the transgressive phase of the slope apron, estuaries developed at the shelf edge, and these also produced minor lobes on the slope. The short‐headed mountainous rivers that drained the adjacent orogenic belt and fed the narrow shelf, and the shelf‐edge position of the discharging deltas, made an appropriate setting for the generation of hyperpycnal turbidity currents on the slope of the shelf margin. The abundance of organic matter and of coal fragments in the slope turbidites is consistent with this notion. Evidence that many of the slope turbidites were generated by sustained turbidity currents that waxed then waned includes the presence of scour surfaces and thick intervals of plane‐parallel laminae within turbidite beds in the slope channels, and thick spillover lobes with repetitive alternations of massive and flat‐laminated intervals. The examined shelf‐edge to slope system, now preserved mainly below the shelf break and dominated by sediment gravity‐flow deposits, has a threefold stratigraphic architecture: a lower, progradational part, in which the clinoforms have a slight downward‐directed trajectory; a thin aggradational zone; and an upper part in which clinoforms backstep up onto the shelf edge. A greatly increased density of erosional channels and chutes marks the regressive‐to‐transgressive turnaround within the slope apron, and this zone becomes an angular unconformity up near the shelf edge. This unconformity, with both subaerial and subaqueous components, is interpreted as a sequence boundary and developed by vigorous sand delivery and bypass across the shelf edge during the time interval of falling relative sea level. The studied shelf‐margin clinoforms accreted mostly during falling stage (sea level below the shelf edge), but the outer shelf later became estuarine as sea level became re‐established above the shelf edge.     

Rate of strike-slip motion on the Amanos Fault (Karasu Valley, southern Turkey) constrained by K–Ar dating and geochemical analysis of Quaternary basalts

The left-lateral Amanos Fault follows a 200-km-long and up to 2-km-high escarpment that bounds the eastern margin of the Amanos mountain range and the western margin of the Karasu Valley in southern Turkey, just east of the northeastern corner of the Mediterranean Sea. Regional kinematic models have reached diverse conclusions as to the role of this fault in accommodating relative motion between either the African and Arabian, Turkish and African, or Turkish and Arabian plates. Local studies have tried to estimate its slip rate by K–Ar dating Quaternary basalts that erupted within the Amanos Mountains, flowed across it into the Karasu Valley, and have since become offset. However, these studies have yielded a wide range of results, ranging from 0.3 to 15 mm a⁻¹, which do not allow the overall role and significance of this fault in accommodating crustal deformation to be determined. We have used the Cassignol K–Ar method to date nine Quaternary basalt samples from the vicinity of the southern part of the Amanos Fault. These basalts exhibit a diverse chemistry, which we interpret as a consequence varying degrees of partial melting of their source combined with variable crustal contamination. This dating allows us to constrain the Quaternary slip rate on the Amanos fault to 1.0 to 1.6 mm a⁻¹. The dramatic discrepancies between past estimates of this slip rate are partly due to technical difficulties in K–Ar dating of young basalts by isotope dilution. In addition, previous studies at the key locality of Hacılar have unwittingly dated different, chemically distinct, flow units of different ages that are juxtaposed. This low slip rate indicates that, at present, the Amanos Fault takes up a small proportion of the relative motion between the African and Arabian plates, which is transferred southward to the Dead Sea Fault Zone. It also provides strong evidence against the long-standing view that its slip continues offshore to the southwest along a hypothetical left-lateral fault zone located south of Cyprus.     

Structure and tectonic evolution of the Southern Eurasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

Multichannel seismic reflection data acquired by Marine Arctic Geological Expedition (MAGE) of Murmansk, Russia in 1990 provide the first view of the geological structure of the Arctic region between 77–80°N and 115–133°E, where the Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean adjoins the passive-transform continental margin of the Laptev Sea. South of 80°N, the oceanic basement of the Eurasia Basin and continental basement of the Laptev Sea outer margin are covered by 1.5 to 8 km of sediments. Two structural sequences are distinguished in the sedimentary cover within the Laptev Sea outer margin and at the continent/ocean crust transition: the lower rift sequence, including mostly Upper Cretaceous to Lower Paleocene deposits, and the upper post-rift sequence, consisting of Cenozoic sediments. In the adjoining Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean, the Cenozoic post-rift sequence consists of a few sedimentary successions deposited by several submarine fans. Based on the multichannel seismic reflection data, the structural pattern was determined and an isopach map of the sedimentary cover and tectonic zoning map were constructed. A location of the continent/ocean crust transition is tentatively defined. A buried continuation of the mid-ocean Gakkel Ridge is also detected. This study suggests that south of 78.5°N there was the cessation in the tectonic activity of the Gakkel Ridge Rift from 33–30 until 3–1 Ma and there was no sea-floor spreading in the southernmost part of the Eurasia Basin during the last 30–33 m.y. South of 78.5°N all oceanic crust of the Eurasia Basin near the continental margin of the Laptev Sea was formed from 56 to 33–30 Ma.     

Origin of the northern Indus Fan and Murray Ridge, Northern Arabian Sea: interpretation from seismic and magnetic imaging

The nature and origin of the sediments and crust of the Murray Ridge System and northern Indus Fan are discussed. The uppermost unit consists of Middle Miocene to recent channel–levee complexes typical of submarine fans. This unit is underlain by a second unit composed of hemipelagic to pelagic sediments deposited during the drift phase after the break-up of India–Seychelles–Africa. A predrift sequence of assumed Mesozoic age occurring only as observed above basement ridges is composed of highly consolidated rocks. Different types of the acoustic basement were detected, which reflection seismic pattern, magnetic anomalies and gravity field modeling indicate to be of continental character. The continental crust is extremely thinned in the northern Indus Fan, lacking a typical block-faulted structure. The Indian continent–ocean transition is marked on single MCS profiles by sequences of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDR). In the northwestern Arabian Sea, the Indian plate margin is characterized by several phases of volcanism and deformation revealed from interpretation of multichannel seismic profiles and magnetic anomalies. From this study, thinned continental crust spreads between the northern Murray Ridge System and India underneath the northern Indus Fan.     

Physical properties of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic rocks from the Sulu terrain, eastern central China: implications for the seismic structure at the Donghai (CCSD) drilling site

About 30 samples representing major lithologies of Sulu ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks were collected from surface exposures and exploration wells, and compressional (Vp) and shear wave (Vs) velocities and their directional dependence (anisotropy) were determined over a range of constant confining pressures up to 600 MPa and temperatures ranging from 20 to 600 °C. Samples range in composition from acidic to ultramafic. P- and S-wave velocities measured at 600 MPa vary from 5.08 to 8.64 km/s and 2.34 to 4.93 km/s, respectively. Densities are in the range from 2.60 to 3.68 g/cm³. To make a direct tie between seismic measurements (refraction and reflection) and subsurface lithologies, the experimental velocity data (corresponding to shallow depths) were used to calculate velocity profiles for the different lithologies and profiles of reflection coefficients at possible lithologic interfaces across the projected 5000-m Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CCSD) crustal segment. Comparison of calculated in situ velocities with respective intrinsic velocities suggests that the in situ velocities at shallow depths are lowered by an increased abundance of open microcracks. The strongly reflective zone beneath the Donghai drill site can be explained by the impedance contrasts between the different lithologies. Contacts between eclogite/peridotite and felsic rocks (gt-gneiss, granitic gneiss), in particular, may give rise to strong seismic reflections. In addition, shear-induced (lattice preferred orientation (LPO)-related) seismic anisotropy can increase reflectivity. For the explanation of the high velocity bodies (>6.4 km/s) around 1000 m and below 3200-m depth, large proportions of eclogite/peridotite (about 40 and 30 vol.%, respectively) are needed.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.