Stokes和Hotine积分离散求和的快速算法

提出了一种用于Stokes积分和Hotine积分直接离散求和的快速算法。该算法将积分核表达为计算点纬度、流动点纬度和两点间经度差的函数,充分利用核函数的对称性,相同纬度的所有计算点只需计算一组核函数,计算次数远少于普通离散求和。基于EGM2008地球重力位模型的模拟实验表明,快速算法的计算效率远高于普通算法,有效解决了离散求和计算速度太慢的数值问题,且保留了球面积分的特性,可取代一维FFT用于计算Stokes积分和Hotine积分。     

春季沙尘对关中地区PM2.5 浓度影响的多尺度模拟研究

“一带一路”建设让古代丝绸之路的起点——西安成为世界焦点，西安的空气质量也是政府和公众关注的焦点。以2017年5月我国北方的一次强沙尘过程为例，首次利用中国科学院大气物理研究所气溶胶和大气化学模式系统IAP-AACM（Aerosol and Atmospheric Chemistry Model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics）模拟关中地区细颗粒物（PM_2.5）的时空分布，并结合地面逐小时PM_2.5观测数据对沙尘气溶胶和PM_2.5模拟的关系进行深入探究。结果表明:加入沙尘组分对模拟关中地区PM_2.5时空变化特征作用显著，相关性可提升0.4～0.6，并且可以很好地再现强沙尘时段PM_2.5浓度骤增的过程；在强沙尘时段和一般时段，沙尘组分对PM_2.5的贡献分别为60%～80%和10%～30%；0.11°×0.11°高分辨率模拟有助于提升模式捕捉污染物时空变化的能力。     

The Oscillation between Tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific:Evidence and Possible Impact on Winter Climate in China

This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China’s winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.     

Improvement of Earth orientation parameters estimate with Chang’E-1 ΔVLBI observations

Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are essential for the interconnection of different reference systems involved in Chang’E-1 (CE-1) lunar exploration, such as the Earth fixed reference system, celestial reference system and dynamical reference system. To improve the accuracy of predicted EOP values and to reduce their influence on the accuracy of CE-1 orbital parameters, a relativistic mathematical model of differential VLBI (ΔVLBI) time delay observations for the CE-1 transfer orbit is derived in this paper, which is generated by differencing CE-1 time delay observations with a simulated radio source's time delay observations. The CE-1 orbital parameters and EOP are simultaneously estimated with least squares adjustment using the measured time delay observations of the CE-1 transfer orbit. The results show that the accuracy of the CE-1 orbit and EOP estimates is improved by the CE-1 ΔVLBI observations with optimal orbital arc length and the win-win approach is able to improve the accuracy of both the CE-1 orbital parameters and EOP estimates. The estimated CE-1 orbital accuracy can achieve a few hundred meters and the estimated EOP accuracies are better than their predicted values.     

Remote sensing application to estimate the volume of water in the form of snow on Mount Lebanon / Application de la télédétection à l’estimation du volume d’eau sous forme de neige sur le Mont Liban

Abstract

Abstract At least one-quarter of the Lebanese terrain is covered by snow annually, thus contributing integrally to feeding surface and subsurface water resources. However, only limited estimates of snow cover have been carried out and applied locally. The use of remote sensing has enhanced significantly the delineation of snow cover over the mountains. Several satellite images and sensors are used in this respect. In this study, SPOT-4 (1-km resolution) satellite images are used. They have the capability to acquire consecutive images every 10 days, thus monitoring the dynamic change of snow and its maximum coverage could be achieved. This was applied to Mount Lebanon for the years 2001–2002. The areas covered by snow were delineated, and then manipulated with the slope angle and altitudes in order to classify five major zones of snowmelt potential. The field investigation was carried out in each zone by measuring depths and snow/water ratio. A volume of around 1100 × 10⁶ m³ of water was derived from snowmelt over the given period. This is equivalent to a precipitation rate of about 425 mm in the region, revealing the considerable portion of water that is derived from snowmelt.     

Comparison of grey and phase-space rainfall forecasting models using a fuzzy decision method / Comparaison grâce à une méthode de décision floue des modèles gris et d’espace des phases pour la prévision de pluie

Abstract

Abstract This work applies a fuzzy decision method to compare the performance of the grey model with that of the phase-space model, in forecasting rainfall one to three hours ahead. Four indices and two statistical tests are used to evaluate objectively the performance of the forecasting models. However, a trade-off must be made in choosing a suitable model because various indices may lead to different judgements. Therefore, a fuzzy decision model was applied to solve this problem and to make the optimum decision. The results of fuzzy decision making demonstrate that the grey model outperforms the phase-space model for forecasting one hour ahead, but the phase-space model performs better for forecasting two or three hours ahead.     

Analysis of a large inter-basin water transfer system in India / Analyse d’un grand système de transfert d’eau inter-bassins en Inde

Abstract

Abstract Inter-basin transfer of water in India is a long-term option to correct the spatial and temporal mismatch of water availability and demand, largely owing to the monsoon climate. This paper is concerned with analysis and preliminary design of a large inter-basin water transfer system in peninsular India. The system covers four major basins and involves operation of 13 major structures. The study was carried out in three stages. First, the surface water deficit in each basin was estimated. Then the net deficit was worked out by considering the availability of groundwater. Finally, the link systems were planned to transfer the amount of water needed to meet the demands with desired reliability.     

Earthquake site effect modeling in the Granada basin using a 3-D indirect boundary element method

In this work, we develop the indirect boundary element method (IBEM) to simulate the seismic site response in a realistic, large-scale 3-D sedimentary basin. Most previous applications of boundary element method have used full-space Green’s functions for wave propagation between element points. We use half-space Green’s functions, which include the seismic wavefield interactions at the free surface and require only the boundary elements of the basin interface. In this way, the size of the matrix equation for solution in the IBEM can be reduced to approximately a quarter of that using full-space Green’s functions. The site response modeling of the Granada basin in southern Spain using the IBEM shows that the basin-induced scattering waves were identified as propagating back and forth inside the basin. The scattered waves also generate surface waves that are weakly propagated outside of the basin. The wave propagation inside and outside of the basin shows different patterns. We observe that the scattered wave is locally amplified, and its propagation direction deviates from that of the incident waves propagation direction. Therefore, the computed seismic response in the basin could provide us with good estimates of the seismic motion.     

卫星重力梯度恢复地球重力场的频谱分析

根据仪器功率谱密度和重力位系数阶方差的定义,本文建立了卫星重力梯度测量噪声功率谱密度与重力场模型的误差阶方差的直接对应关系,并基于此讨论了重力梯度测量精度、卫星轨道高度以及运行时间对地球重力场恢复精度的影响.相比于传统的基于最小二乘法评估卫星载荷噪声对地球重力场恢复精度的影响而言,本文提出的方法简单、直接,有助于快速设计和确定卫星重力测量计划的有关参数.     

Sécheresse et modification de la relation pluie–débit: cas du bassin versant de l’Oued Sebdou (Algérie Occidentale)

L’objectif de ce travail est d’étudier les variations temporelles hydrométéorologiques et d’identifier les tendances dans la relation pluie–débit du bassin versant de l’Oued Sebdou, un sous bassin de la Tafna, situé dans le Nord-Ouest algérien. A partir des données pluviométriques (1941–2012) et hydrométriques (1972–2012), des tests statistiques ont permis d’identifier les ruptures et évaluer les déficits hydrométéorologiques. Les résultats ont révélé une modification du régime des précipitations se traduisant nettement par une tendance à la baisse survenue au milieu des années 1970, soit une réduction de 25%. En outre, la réduction des écoulements durant une période de 40 ans dépasse 58% avec une rupture décelée au début des années 1980. L’identification des tendances dans la relation pluie–débit a été menée par l’application de l’approche des simulations croisées à partir du modèle GR2M sur plusieurs sous-périodes de cinq ans. Une non-stationnarité de la relation pluie–débit a été mise en évidence durant la période 1985–2004, ce qui indique une tendance à la baisse des lames d’eau mensuelles écoulées sur le bassin versant de l’Oued Sebdou.