Estimation of rocking and torsion associated with surface waves extracted from recorded motions

By exploiting the capability of identifying and extracting surface waves existing in a seismic signal, we can proceed to estimate the angular displacement (rotation about the horizontal axis normal to the direction of propagation of the wave; rocking) associated with Rayleigh waves as well as the angular displacement (rotation about the vertical axis; torsion) associated with Love waves.For a harmonic Rayleigh (Love) wave, rocking (torsion) would be proportional to the harmonic vertical (transverse horizontal) velocity component and inversely proportional to the phase velocity corresponding to the particular frequency of the harmonic wave (a fact that was originally exploited by Newmark (1969) [15] to estimate torsional excitation). Evidently, a reliable estimate of the phase velocity (as a function of frequency) is necessary. As pointed out by Stockwell (2007) [17], because of its absolutely referenced phase information, the S-Transform can be employed in a cross-spectrum analysis in a local manner. Following this suggestion a very reliable estimate of the phase velocity may be obtained from the recordings at two nearby stations, after the dispersed waves have been identified and extracted. Synthesis of the abovementioned harmonic components can provide a reliable estimate of the rocking (torsional) motion induced by an (extracted) Rayleigh (Love) wave.We apply the proposed angular displacement estimation procedure for two well recorded data sets: (1) the strong motion data generated by an aftershock of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake and recorded over the Western Coastal Plain (WCP) of Taiwan, and (2) the strong motion data generated by the 2010 Darfield, New Zealand earthquake and recorded over the Canterbury basin. The former data set is dominated by basin-induced Rayleigh waves while the latter contains primarily Love waves.     

农田土壤水分和盐分的空间变异性及其协同克立格估值

通过对一块面积为1hm2麦田内的98个观测点取样分析,测定了两个时期的土壤水分和盐分含量。结果表明两个时期的土壤含水量均服从正态分布,底层盐分均服从对数正态分布,而表层的盐分分布具有不确定性。两个时期土壤水分和盐分的变异系数分别属于弱变异和中等变异强度。通过结构分析,发现两个时期的水分和盐分均在一定范围内存在空间相关性。对两个时期土壤水分和盐分空间分布的动态变化进行了比较,同时采用CoKriging方法进行估值,与Kriging法相比,其估计方差减少百分数最大达到了136.3%。     

非均质介质中重非水相污染物运移受泄漏速率影响数值分析

重非水相污染物(DNAPL)在地下介质中运移和分布受多种因素控制,包括DNAPL本身的物理化学性质,土的性质,泄漏条件等等。由于介质的非均质性,使得多相流运移行为更为复杂。基于地下水随机理论构建渗透率随机场,采用蒙特卡罗方法探讨泄漏速率对非均质饱和介质中DNAPL运移的影响。数值结果表明,在泄漏总量一定的情况下,泄漏速率越低,介质非均质性对DNAPL运移的影响程度越高。反之,DNAPL的渗漏速率越高,小尺度地层的非均质性影响越低。由于DNAPL运移过程中在垂直方向受重力的影响,污染羽在空间上的质心位置(一阶矩)以及展布范围(二阶矩)在垂直方向上的变异程度要高于水平方向。     

先验概率分布及似然函数模型的选择对边坡可靠度评价影响的定量评估

受工程勘察成本及试验场地限制,可获得的试验数据通常有限,基于有限的试验数据难以准确估计岩土参数统计特征和边坡可靠度。贝叶斯方法可以融合有限的场地信息降低对岩土参数不确定性的估计进而提高边坡可靠度水平。但是,目前的贝叶斯更新研究大多假定参数先验概率分布为正态、对数正态和均匀分布,似然函数为多维正态分布,这种做法的合理性有待进一步验证。总结了岩土工程贝叶斯分析常用的参数先验概率分布及似然函数模型,以一个不排水黏土边坡为例,采用自适应贝叶斯更新方法系统探讨了参数先验概率分布和似然函数对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新的影响。计算结果表明：参数先验概率分布对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新均有一定的影响,选用对数正态和极值I型分布作为先验概率分布推断的参数后验概率分布离散性较小。选用Beta分布和极值I型分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果分别偏于保守和危险,选用对数正态分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果居中。相比之下,似然函数的影响更加显著。与其他类型似然函数相比,由多维联合正态分布构建的似然函数可在降低对岩土参数不确定性估计的同时,获得与场地信息更为吻合的计算结果。另外,构建似然函数时不同位置处测量误差之间的自相关性对边坡后验失效概率也具有一定的影响。     

考虑参数空间变异性多层土坡系统可靠度分析

多层土坡在岩土工程实际中十分常见,不仅土体参数存在一定的空间变异性,而且土体框架呈现明显的层状分布特征,然而目前对考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡稳定可靠度研究的远远不够。提出了基于多重响应面边坡系统可靠度分析的蒙特卡洛模拟（MCS）方法,给出了计算流程图,系统地研究了考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡系统可靠度问题。结果表明,提出方法能够有效地分析考虑参数空间变异性低失效概率水平的多层土坡系统可靠度问题,并且具有较高的参数敏感性分析计算效率。     

沙坡头地区多年降水分布特征、趋势及其变率

应用Mann-Kendall秩统计法和回归分析法,检验时间序列上的年降水趋势;应用一阶自相关分析法,对沙坡头地区多年降水持续性特征进行统计分析。结果表明,5a滑动平均曲线所对应区间1967- 1972年以及1977- 1982年降水量大于多年平均值,而1983- 2000年降水量滑动平均值低于多年平均值的趋势明显。1955-1970年的分析时段内,降水量每连续递减两年后,将稍有回升,但总体上趋于下降。从滑动平均计算值来看,年降水分布存在时间序列上的非随机因素潜在振荡,5a滑动平均值突出了以年为时序单位的降水振荡模式。干旱时段的延长通常在多雨年之前或之后发生,尤其在1978年经历高峰降水以后,直至1985年,区内干旱时段的延长颇为显著。沙坡头地区降水分布特征表明该地区在干旱半干旱过渡带中更趋向于干旱化的特点。     

浑善达克沙地地区的气候变化特征

利用浑善达克沙地地区8个典型气象站近50a的气候资料,以及锡林郭勒盟南部1903-1975年旱涝等级指数数据,主要运用Excel分析了该区时空气候变化特征。近50a来,整个浑善达克沙地地区气温升高的趋势和全球变暖表现一致,而且气温升高更加显著。无论从100a尺度还是50a尺度上看,整个区域在不同的年代都存在有较大的干湿差异;然而降水量的变化趋势表现不同,在50a尺度上,整个区域降水量呈波动中微弱减少的态势,且存在区域差异。从气温、降水量、蒸发量以及平均相对湿度的变化情况看,都有趋势表明浑善达克沙地以朱日和为代表的西北部地区,较中部和东南部有明显暖干化趋势,将可能是未来生态环境更加脆弱的地区。整个区域自1970年以来,年平均风速在减小,但近40a来浑善达克沙地西部地区沙尘暴一直在发展;东部地区的沙尘暴在1980年以前呈增加的趋势,1980年以后则明显减少,但新近频繁发生的沙尘暴表明,东部地区沙尘暴的发展也应当引起关注。     

Spatial variability of soil moisture content and its relation to environmental indices in a semi-arid gully catchment of the Loess Plateau, China

The degree of spatial variability of soil moisture and the ability of environmental attributes to predict that variability were studied at the Da Nangou catchment (3·5 km²) in the semi-arid loess area of China. Soil moisture measurements were performed biweekly at five depths in the soil profile (0–5 cm, 10–15 cm, 20–25 cm, 40–45 cm and 70–75 cm) from May to October 1998 and from May to September 1999 using Delta-T theta probe. Results indicated that with increasing soil depth, the mean soil moisture content increases significantly for five layers and the coefficients of variation (CV) also increases with depth from 10–15 cm. It was observed that heavier rains and higher mean moisture contents are often associated with lower spatial variability (CV). Environmental attributes such as land use and topography play controlling roles in the spatial distribution of soil moisture content. However, the relative roles of these environmental indices vary with soil depth. The dominant controls on spatial variability of the time-averaged soil moisture changes from land use, aspect, relative elevation and hillslope position in the surface soil (0–5 cm) to relative elevation, hillslope position and aspect in the subsurface soil (10–15 cm, 20–25 cm), and to land use, relative elevation and slope gradient at larger depths (40–45 cm, 70–75 cm). The dynamic behavior of influences of different environmental indices on the layer-averaged soil moisture depends on several factors. In general, the correlation of soil moisture with slope gradient shows a more significant increase following a greater amount of antecedent precipitation (except for the extremely heavy storms), and declines afterwards. The relation of soil moisture with relative elevation and hillslope position exhibits an opposite trend. It was observed that the influence of land use corresponds to the difference in vegetative characteristics, with a stronger influence in June and August with a greater difference in vegetation. A significant influence of cos(aspect) was found during early spring and autumn with a rapid transient in solar irradiation. Finally, it was found that the sample size is adequate to estimate the catchment mean soil moisture at all five depths and on all 10 observations in 1999 (81 sites), while it is only enough for the upper soil layers (0–5 cm and 10–15 cm) in 1998 (26 sites).     

黄土丘陵小流域土壤水分的时空变异特征--半变异函数

结合地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）,利用地统计学方法研究了黄土丘陵沟ｈｅ区小流域土壤水分的空间结构特征及其季节变化规律。结果表明：土壤水分具有较高的分维数,表现出强烈和中等程度的空间自相关。①对平均土壤水分来说,其台值降低;而在极端干旱条件,土壤含水量接近凋萎系数,土壤水分的基台值高;温润季节,基台值降低;而在极端干旱条件下,土壤含水量接近萎系数,土壤水分变异程度降低。变程的季节变化在干旱季节数值高,湿润     

Year‐round estimation of soil moisture content using temporally variable soil hydraulic parameters

Soil moisture plays a key role in the hydrological cycle as it controls the flux of water between soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. This study is focused on a year‐round estimation of soil moisture in a forested mountain area using the bucket model approach. For this purpose, three different soil moisture models are utilised. The procedure is based on splitting the whole year into two complement periods (dormant and vegetation). Model parameters are allowed to vary between the two periods and also from year to year in the calibration procedure. Consequently, two sets of average model parameters corresponding to dormant and vegetation seasons are proposed. The process of splitting is strongly supported by the experimental data, and it enables us to variate saturated hydraulic conductivity and pore‐size characterisation. The use of the two different parameter sets significantly enhances the simulation of two (Teuling and Troch model and soil water balance model‐green–ampt [SWBM‐GA]) out of three models in the 6‐year period from 2009 to 2014. For these two models, the overall Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient increased from 0.64 to 0.79 and from 0.55 to 0.80. The third model (the Laio approach) proved to be insensitive to parameter changes due to its insufficient drainage prediction. The variability of the warm and cold parameter sets between particular years is more pronounced in the warm periods. The cold periods exhibited approximately similar character during all 6 years.