Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran

Knowledge of the internal renewable water resources of a country is strategic information which is needed for long‐term planning of a nation's water and food security, among many other needs. New modelling tools allow this quantification with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we used the program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in combination with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI‐2) to calibrate and validate a hydrologic model of Iran based on river discharges and wheat yield, taking into consideration dam operations and irrigation practices. Uncertainty analyses were also performed to assess the model performance. The results were quite satisfactory for most of the rivers across the country. We quantified all components of the water balance including blue water flow (water yield plus deep aquifer recharge), green water flow (actual and potential evapotranspiration) and green water storage (soil moisture) at sub‐basin level with monthly time‐steps. The spatially aggregated water resources and simulated yield compared well with the existing data. The study period was 1990–2002 for calibration and 1980–1989 for validation. The results show that irrigation practices have a significant impact on the water balances of the provinces with irrigated agriculture. Concerning the staple food crop in the country, 55% of irrigated wheat and 57% of rain‐fed wheat are produced every year in water‐scarce regions. The vulnerable situation of water resources availability has serious implications for the country's food security, and the looming impact of climate change could only worsen the situation. This study provides a strong basis for further studies concerning the water and food security and the water resources management strategies in the country and a unified approach for the analysis of blue and green water in other arid and semi‐arid countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

关于黄海深部构造的地球物理认识

利用黄海海区重磁观测数据,以最新的地震层析成像和浅层反射地震探测结果作为约束,并利用小波分解、纹理特征图像处理等手段,对研究区进行了地球物理场特征分析、岩石物性总结、断裂信息提取和磁性基底埋深反演计算,同时对南黄海海域三条剖面进行了广义逆重磁数据拟合反演和地震P波速度成像.根据地球物理数据的各种处理结果,提出在南黄海西部存在一条串珠状地球物理线性构造带,并将这条NNW向断续延伸的构造带称之为南黄海西缘断裂带.该断裂带延伸长,断裂两侧前新生代地层差异较大,有可能是造成陆区和南黄海南部盆地区前新生代油气远景差异的原因之一.文中得到南黄海磁性基底埋藏分布具有“中间浅四周深”的分布特征,与地震层析成像结果相吻合.磁性基底的局部起伏和局部构造的边界断层共同控制了前新生代残留盆地的格架和残余厚度分布,反映出“区域控制局部,深层约束浅层”的规律.     

北黄海盆地烃渗漏蚀变带“磁亮点”的识别研究

北黄海盆地是我国近海海域尚未取得油气勘探突破的盆地之一.在海洋环境中应用海底油气藏的烃渗漏现象寻找油气有利区具有良好应用前景,为了给该区的含油气远景评价及下一步油气勘探缩小靶区提供地球物理依据,本文利用磁法这一经济、有效的油气渗漏异常地球物理判别手段,开展了识别海底烃渗漏引发磁异常的方法研究.给出一种根据“有导师”的模式识别技术,在充分利用磁异常多种数值特征及纹理特征的基础上,提取烃渗漏蚀变带磁异常的方法.通过已知约束信息（如见油井位等）的点、线、面三种基元及其邻近数据网格点组成基类,将其提取的模式或特征向量作为待识别异常匹配或学习的模板,利用加权欧氏距离函数计算待识别异常特征向量与模板向量之间的相似性,进行模式匹配,从而识别出与模板相似程度较高的异常.应用此方法圈定了北黄海盆地的烃渗漏“磁亮点”分布,从“磁亮点”异常区与中生代地层的分布以及地球化学异常（低层大气烃类检测和海底微生物异常）的对应情况来看,表明该识别方法是识别烃渗漏弱磁异常的一种有效手段.对研究区构造特征、磁异常及地球化学异常特征的综合分析表明,位于北黄海研究区东部和北部的“磁亮点”异常区可能是北黄海盆地较好的含油气远景区.     

应用核磁共振技术分析干盐湖地区地下卤水空间分布特征——以昆特依干盐湖为例

昆特依干盐湖位于柴达木盆地西北部,为特大型综合盐类矿床.大盐滩是昆特依干盐湖内最大的盐滩,地下赋存有一定量的卤水矿床,但该矿床的水文地质条件差,主要卤水矿层含水性弱,开采难度大.核磁共振找水方法作为当今世界上唯一的直接找水地球物理新方法,具有高分辨力、高效率、信息量丰富和解的唯一性等优点,本文运用该方法对昆特依干盐滩地区地下卤水空间分布特征进行研究,通过对核磁共振数据进行处理与反演,结合已有的地质与钻井资料,对测点进行综合地质-地球物理解释,获得以下认识:1)大盐滩0~130 m深度范围内,共存在3个卤水含水层,主要呈扁平状或漏斗状、近似层状展布,W1为晶间潜卤水层,渗透系数较大,颗粒较粗,单位体积含水量为0.4%~2.7%,W2和W3为晶间承压卤水层,渗透系数较小,颗粒较粗,单位体积含水量分别为0.2%~1.1%和0.1%~0.8%;2)大盐滩地区存在两个卤水富集区,分别为研究区西南部沉积盆地中心的Ⅰ号富卤区和盆地东北部的Ⅱ号富卤区;3)根据区域内卤水富集分布以及构造情况,划定大盐滩向斜沉积中心、大盐滩北侧F1~F8及遥F6断裂发育区和冷湖构造带为区域内主要的找矿找水远景区;4)GMR核磁共振系统在干盐滩地区理论探测深度为130 m,该系统不仅可以有效地探测自由水,而且可以依据束缚水的分布解译地下各类含水盐类矿物和含水黏土矿物的存在与分布.     

沙尘暴电效应的实验观测研究

利用国内大型风沙物理风洞实验模拟沙尘暴电现象,研究风沙起电机理,结果表 明,不同风速下不同沙粒会产生不同极性的电场强度和电位效应,风沙电随风速增大而增强 ,且随沙粒度增大而减小. 在沙漠区的16m,8m,4m和1m高度上观测到27次不同沙尘暴天气 过程的电场和风速随时间变化. 结果表明, 在晴天4个高度上的电场均为小正电场值,电场 随高度降低而减小,最大电场强度在5kV/m以下,日风速变化对各层电场起伏没有较大影响 . 有沙尘天气,各高度上的电场强度随风速变化而变化. 16m高度上电场均为负值,平均值 为 -20kV/m;中层8m 电场一般为较高正电场值,达到10～40kV/m,与16m高度上电场呈反相 关;下层1m 电场值变化一般很小,在1kV/m以下. 在强沙尘暴天气4个高度上的电场均为负 电值,电场值随高度降低而减小,16m高度上最大平均电场强度达到-200kV/m以上,瞬时值 超过 -2500kV/m,与晴天电场矢量相反.     

Remote and local forcing of a coastal lagoon: The Virginia Coast Reserve

The effects of local and remote wind forcing of water level heights in the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) are examined in order to determine the significant forces governing estuarine motions over subtidal time scales. Recent (1996–2008) data from tide and wind stations in the lagoon, a tide station to the north at Sandy Hook, NJ, and one offshore wind station at the Chesapeake Light Tower are examined. Sea surface height spectrum calculations reveal significant diurnal and semidiurnal tidal effects along with subtidal variations, but a suppressed inertial signal. Sea-surface heights (SSH) with 2–5 day periods at Wachapreague, VA are coherent with those at Sandy Hook and lag them in time, suggesting that southward-propagating continental shelf waves provide subtidal variability within the lagoon. The coherence between lagoon winds and sea surface height, as well as between winds and cross-lagoon sea height gradient, were significant at a relatively small number of frequency and wind direction combinations. The frequencies at which this wind forcing occurs are the tidal and subtidal bands present to the north, so that lagoon winds selectively augment existing SSH signals, but do not generate them. The impact of the wind direction is closely related to the geometry of the lagoon and bounding landmasses. The effect of wind stress is also constrained by geometry in affecting the cross-lagoon water height gradient. Water levels at subtidal frequencies are likely forced by a combination of local wind forcing, remote wind forcing and oceanic forcing modified by the complex topography of the lagoon, shelf, and barrier islands.     

Spatial interpolation of snow water equivalency using surface observations and remotely sensed images of snow‐covered area

As demand for water continues to escalate in the western Unites States, so does the need for accurate monitoring of the snowpack in mountainous areas. In this study, we describe a simple methodology for generating gridded‐estimates of snow water equivalency (SWE) using both surface observations of SWE and remotely sensed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA). Multiple regression was used to quantify the relationship between physiographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, clear‐sky solar radiation, etc.) and SWE as measured at a number of sites in a mountainous basin in south‐central Idaho (Big Wood River Basin). The elevation of the snowline, obtained from the SCA estimates, was used to constrain the predicted SWE values. The results from the analysis are encouraging and compare well to those found in previous studies, which often utilized more sophisticated spatial interpolation techniques. Cross‐validation results indicate that the spatial interpolation method produces accurate SWE estimates [mean R² = 0·82, mean mean absolute error (MAE) = 4·34 cm, mean root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5·29 cm]. The basin examined in this study is typical of many mid‐elevation mountainous basins throughout the western United States, in terms of the distribution of topographic variables, as well as the number and characteristics of sites at which the necessary ground data are available. Thus, there is high potential for this methodology to be successfully applied to other mountainous basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汉江中游鱼类资源现状

2003-2004年在汉江中游江段共监测654船次,统计渔获物6914.16 kg,生物学测定1682尾鱼,共采集鱼类78种,隶属18科58属.目前汉江中游渔获物组成和结构与20世纪70年代相比发生了较大变化,翘嘴红鲌、瓦氏黄颡鱼、鲶、鲢、黄尾鲴、大鳍蠖等在渔获物中比例已经很少;草鱼资源也明显下降;铜鱼、青鱼、蒙古红鲐、鳡、细鳞斜颌鲴、吻鮈、长吻鮠、拟尖头红鲌、鳙、鳜等在渔获物中已基本消失;而鲤、鲫、黄颡鱼、长春鳊、赤服鳟等中小型鱼类在渔获物中的比例却相对上升;渔获物中个体大的鱼减少,低龄鱼及幼鱼个体比重增加.与70年代资料相比,汉江中游鱼类资源已呈衰退趋势.     

如何开展老矿山后备资源的寻找与定位预测--工作程序与实例分析

在老矿山的深部与外围寻找新的可用资源,要求勘探者具备新的找矿思路、行之有效的深部探测手段与合理的工作程序、新的找矿思路来自于研究者的相关知识储备和创新能力,使其不墨守成规,用新的视角重新认识矿化规律和控矿要素。进而在老矿区优选出潜在的有利成矿区段．行之有效的深部探测手段以其高分辨的数字图像,不仅可以客观地反映深部地质结构的各种变化及矿化信息,以验证地质推测的可靠性,而且借助属地化的解释模型对矿区深部和外围开展真正意义的矿体定位预测、同时还可以大大降低工程验证的盲目性和巨大浪费．根据我们目前拥有的先进地球物理深部探测手段和大量老矿山找矿的经验与教训,逐渐形成了一套实用的工作程序。