预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Micro-spectroscopic investigations of highly heterogeneous waste repository materials

Assuring safe disposal and long-term storage of radioactive and toxic wastes corresponds to a primary environmental task of present societies. To improve any technical limitation, a mechanistic understanding of the processes governing the binding of heavy metals and radionuclides is required. In this study, the significance of synchrotron-based X-ray microprobes for elucidating the spatial distribution and the speciation of radionuclides in highly heterogeneous waste repository materials will be outlined. A case study on the uptake process of Co in cementitious engineered barrier materials exposed to microbial degradation will be presented.     

Statistical evaluation of methods for the calculation of static formation temperatures in geothermal and oil wells using an extension of the error propagation theory

The feasibility of using the more sophisticated weighted least-squares (WLS) model, as opposed to the traditional ordinary least-squares (OLS), in linear regressions of BHT data to estimate the static formation temperatures (SFT) was investigated. The most commonly used analytical methods (line-source; spherical and radial heat flow; and cylindrical heat source) were applied. Error propagation equations were derived to calculate errors in the time function of each method. These errors were combined with the BHT measurement errors to compute weighting factors for applying the WLS. Intercept uncertainties were estimated for all regressions using sets of synthetic and actual borehole logs taken from geothermal and oil applications. SFT computed with the spherical and radial heat flow method were generally greater than those from the other two methods.     

Petrofacies, provenance and diagenesis of the dhosa sandstone member (Chari Formation) at Ler, Kachchh sub-basin, Western India

The sandstones of the Dhosa Sandstone Member of Late Callovian and Early Oxfordian age exposed at Ler have been analyzed for their petrofacies, provenance, tectonic setting and diagenetic history. These sandstones are fine to medium grained and poorly- to well sorted. The constituent mineral grains are subangular to subrounded. These sandstones were derived from a mixed provenance including granites, granite–gneisses, low- and high-grade metamorphic and some basic rocks of the Aravalli Range and Nagarparkar Massif. The petrofacies analysis reveals that these sandstones belong to the continental block-, recycled orogen- and rifted continental margin tectonic regime.The imprints of early and deep burial diagenesis of these sandstones include different stages of compaction, cementation, change in crystal boundaries, cement–cement boundaries, chertification and neomorphism. The sequence of cementation includes precipitation of calcite and its subsequent replacement by Fe calcite and silica cements. The typical intermediate burial (2–3 km depth) diagenetic signatures of these sandstones are reflected in the formation of suture and straight-line boundaries, and triple junctions with straight-line boundaries. The depositional environment, relatively low-energy environment that was below storm wave base but subjected to gentle currents, of the Dhosa Sandstone Member controlled the early diagenesis, which in turn influenced the burial diagenesis of these sandstones.     

Stratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of a Quaternary sequence along the Dong Nai River, southern Vietnam

The pre-Holocene Cenozoic sequence outcrops in the terrestrial part of the eastern margin of the Mekong Basin. However, the stratigraphy of the sequence is still unclear. Its detailed stratigraphy and chronology were therefore studied along the Dong Nai River, southern Vietnam, and the lithofacies and the relations among the formations were investigated from the outcrops. The ages of the deposits were determined by using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating.The Ba Mieu Formation was deposited about 176±52 ka during marine isotope stage (MIS) 7–6. The Thu Duc Formation was deposited about 97±27 ka during MIS 5. Both the Ba Mieu and Thu Duc formations are composed of fluvial and tidally influenced coastal deposits. The newly proposed Nhon Trach Formation was originally an eolian (blanket) deposit, but it has been partly reworked by fluvial processes. The Nhon Trach Formation was deposited about 10.9±4.7 ka, in the last part of the Pleistocene to the beginning of the Holocene. The OSL ages for the Ba Mieu, Thu Duc, and Nhon Trach formations are younger than the ages previously assigned to these formations.     

The first record of dinosaurs in the Dalmatian part (Croatia) of the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform (ADCP)

The first discovery of dinosaur footprints on the Dalmatian part of the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform (ADCP) is reported. They constitute the geologically youngest record of footprints on the ADCP. The trackbearing layer was formed in the intertidal environment and represents the final stage of a shallowing-upward cycle. Just below it, a heavy dinoturbated limestone layer can be observed. Microfacies analysis, incorporating evidence from benthic foraminifera and algae, indicates a Late Turonian–Early Coniacian age. The overall morphology and size of the footprints points to sauropod dinosaurs; they represent the largest forms recorded so far on the ADCP. This hints at a prolonged sauropod presence on the platform and to its Late Cretaceous connection to the continent rather than isolation.     

Geochemistry and Origin of Ananai Stratiform Manganese Deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, Central Shikoku, Japan

Abstract. Major and trace element contents are reported for Permian manganese ore and associated greenstone from the Ananai manganese deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, central Shikoku, Japan. The manganese deposit occurs between greenstone and red chert, or among red chert beds. Chemical compositions of manganese ore are characterized by enrichments in Mn, Ca, P, Co, Ni, Zn, Sr and Ba, and negative Ce and positive Eu anomalies relative to post-Archean average Australian Shale (PAAS). Geochemical features of the manganese ore are similar to those of modern submarine hydrother-mal manganese deposits from volcanic arc or hotspot setting. In addition, geochemical characteristics of the greenstone closely associated with the Ananai manganese deposit are analogous to those of with-in plate alkaline basalt (WPA). Consequently, the Ananai manganese deposit was most likely formed by hydrothermal activity related to hotspot volcanism in the Panthalassa Ocean during the Middle Permian. This is the first report documenting the terrestrially-exposed manganese deposit that was a submarine precipitate at hotspot.     

An investigation of upper mantle heterogeneity beneath the Archaean and Proterozoic crust of western Canada from Lithoprobe controlled-source seismic experiments

Observations of upper mantle reflectivity at numerous locations around the world have been linked to the presence of a heterogeneous distribution of rock types within a broad layer of the upper mantle. This phenomenon is observed in wide-angle reflection data from Lithoprobe's Alberta Basement Transect [the SAREX and Deep Probe experiments of 1995] and Trans-Hudson Orogen Transect [the THoRE experiment of 1993]. SAREX and Deep Probe image the Archaean lithosphere of the Hearne and Wyoming Provinces, whereas THoRE images the Archaean and Proterozoic lithosphere of the Trans-Hudson Orogen and neighbouring areas.Finite-difference synthetic seismograms are used to constrain the position and physical properties of the reflective layer. SAREX/Deep Probe modelling uses a 2-D visco-elastic finite-difference routine; THoRE modelling uses a pseudospectral algorithm. In both cases, the upper mantle is parameterized in terms of two media. One medium is the background matrix; the other is statistically distributed within the first as a series of elliptical bodies. Such a scheme is suitable for modelling: (1) variations in lithology (e.g., a peridotite matrix with eclogite lenses) or (2) variations in rheology (e.g., lenses of increased strain within a less strained background).The synthetic seismograms show that the properties of heterogeneities in the upper mantle do not change significantly between the two Lithoprobe transects. Beneath the Trans-Hudson Orogen in Saskatchewan, the layer is best modelled to lie at depths between 80 and 150 km. Based on observations from perpendicular profiles, anisotropy of the heterogeneities is inferred. Beneath the Precambrian domains of Alberta, 400 km to the west, upper mantle heterogeneities are modelled to occur between depths of 90 and 140 km. In both cases the heterogeneous bodies within the model have cross-sectional lengths of tens of kilometers, vertical thicknesses less than 1 km, and velocity contrasts from the background of − 0.3 to − 0.4 km/s. Based on consistency with complementary data and other results, the heterogeneous layer is inferred to be part of the continental lithosphere and may have formed through lateral flow or deformation within the upper mantle.     

Aftershocks series monitoring of the September 18, 2004 M = 4.6 earthquake at the western Pyrenees: A case of reservoir-triggered seismicity?

On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km², ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments.