ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE EPIC CROP MODEL FOR USE IN THE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.     

Re-exposed basement landforms in the Disko region, West Greenland — disregarded data for estimation of glacial erosion and uplift modelling

Classifications of large-scale landscapes in Greenland have traditionally been based on type and intensity of glacial erosion, with the general idea that present landforms are mainly the result of erosion from ice sheets and glaciers. However, on southern Disko and in areas offshore in Disko Bugt, a basement surface has preserved remnants of weathered gneiss and pre-Paleocene landforms, recently exhumed from Paleocene basalt. Isolated hills and lineaments have been mapped in a digital terrain model and aerial photographs. Offshore have hills been mapped from seismic lines. The medium size bedrock forms on southern Disko as tors, clefts and roche moutonées have been studied in the field. Remnant saprolites were inventoried, sampled and analysed according to grain size and clay mineralogy. The basement surface retains saprolites up to 8 m thick in close relation to the cover rocks. The landforms in the basement rocks belong essentially to an etched surface only slightly remodelled by glacial erosion and, below the highest coastline, also by wave action. The outline of hills is governed by two lineament directions, ENE–WSW representing the schistocity of the gneiss and NW–SE fracture zones. These structures are thus interpreted to have been exploited by the deep weathering while the frequent N–S lineaments have not and thus might be younger. Main ice-flow has been from the NE and has resulted in plucking of SW facing lee sides, however the resulting bedrock forms are mainly controlled by structures and orientation of joints. The identification of re-exposed sub-Paleocene etch forms on Disko and the hills of similar size offshore, forming a hilly relief, have implications for identification of a hilly relief south of Disko Bugt, its relation to younger planation surfaces as well as for conclusions of uplift events.     

Use of fallout 137Cs for documenting the chronology of overbank sediments from the river Sava, Croatia, and interpreting their geochemical patterns

This paper attempts to determine the impact of former Pb-Zn-Ba mining activities in Slovenian drainage basin on overbank sediments of the Sava river (West Croatia). Among the four studied sequences (S7, S8, S9, S10), the most upstream profile S7 showed the most pronounced impact of ore mining. Mercury was enriched more than 100-fold; Pb and Zn had a strong positive correlation (r > 0.99). Two factor models clearly revealed the Pb-Ba-Hg association in the lower-lying carbonate (CA) population of all four profiles, but only in the overlying silicate (SI) population of profile S7. Factor analysis confirmed this association in the total sediment (90 samples) as well as separately in the CA (33 samples) and SI (57 samples) populations. Based on a comparison with an undisturbed soil profile, the vertical distribution of ¹³⁷Cs in profile S7 was interpreted to be the combination of caesium deposition caused by a flood in 1964 and by post-depositional redistribution.     

‘Boundary’ in Ancient Persian Tradition of Statehood

It is universally accepted that the need for defining precise lines of separation and points of contacts between states is the byproduct of the emergence of nation-states and ‘world economy’ in the 19th century Europe. Nevertheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that these modern notions are rooted in periods prior to the emergence in Europe of nation-states. There are indications that ancient civilizations were familiar with the notion of ‘state’ in connection with the concepts of territory and boundary. Ancient texts reveal that this basic principle existed in ancient Persian literature in respect of matters of state, territory, and boundary. Similarly, the likelihood exists that these Persian notions could have influenced Roman civilization. It is widely believed that a combination of ancient Greco-Roman and Persian civilizations is a major contributor to what culturally constitutes ‘West’. Later in the Sassanid period the inter-linked notions of state, territory, and boundary developed substantially, coming quite close to their contemporary forms. On the other hand, considering that ‘justice’ was the corner stone of ancient Persian Political philosophy, the idea that ancient Persian spatial arrangement might have contributed to the evolution of the concept of democracy in the West may not be too difficult to contemplate.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate indicators on continental‐scale potential groundwater recharge in Africa

In the last decades, human activity has been contributing to climate change that is closely associated with an increase in temperatures, increase in evaporation, intensification of extreme dry and wet rainfall events, and widespread melting of snow and ice. Understanding the intricate linkage between climate warming and the hydrological cycle is crucial for sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in a vulnerable continent like Africa. This study investigates the relationship between climate‐change drivers and potential groundwater recharge (PGR) patterns across Africa for a long‐term record (1960–2010). Water‐balance components were simulated by using the PCR‐GLOBWB model and were reproduced in both gridded maps and latitudinal trends that vary in space with minima on the Tropics and maxima around the Equator. Statistical correlations between temperature, storm occurrences, drought, and PGR were examined in six climatic regions of Africa. Surprisingly, different effects of climate‐change controls on PGR were detected as a function of latitude in the last three decades (1980–2010). Temporal trends observed in the Northern Hemisphere of Africa reveal that the increase in temperature is significantly correlated to the decline of PGR, especially in the Northern Equatorial Africa. The climate indicators considered in this study were unable to explain the alarming negative trend of PGR observed in the Sahelian region, even though the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values report a 15% drought stress. On the other hand, increases in temperature have not been detected in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa, where increasing frequency of storm occurrences determine a rise of PGR, particularly in southern Africa. Time analysis highlights a strong seasonality effect, while PGR is in‐phase with rainfall patterns in the summer (Northern Hemisphere) and winter (Southern Hemisphere) and out‐of‐phase during the fall season. This study helps to elucidate the mechanism of the processes influencing groundwater resources in six climatic zones of Africa, even though modelling results need to be validated more extensively with direct measurements in future studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow processes and sedimentation in unidirectionally migrating deep‐water channels: From a three‐dimensional seismic perspective

Three‐dimensional seismic data were used to infer how bottom currents control unidirectional channel migration. Bottom currents flowing towards the steep bank would deflect the upper part of sediment gravity flows at an orientation of 1° to 11° to the steep bank, yielding a helical flow circulation consisting of a faster near‐surface flow towards the steep bank and a slower basal return flow towards the gentle bank. This helical flow model is evidenced by the occurrence of bigger, muddier (suggested by low‐amplitude seismic reflections) lateral accretion deposits and gentle channel wall with downlap terminations on the gentle bank and by smaller, sandier (indicated by high‐amplitude seismic reflectors) channel fills and steep channel walls with truncation terminations on the steep bank. This helical flow circulation promotes asymmetrical depositional patterns with dipping accretion sets restricted to the gentle bank, which restricts the development of sinuosity and yields unidirectional channel migration. These results aid in obtaining a complete picture of flow processes and sedimentation in submarine channels.