晋陕蒙接壤地区岩溶地下水与黄河水环境同位素特征分析

本文通过晋陕蒙接壤地区岩溶地下水与黄河水环境同位素特征的分析、研究,得出由补给区→迳流区→排泄区,岩溶水氚值由高变低, 14C年龄具有由低逐渐升高的变化规律;利用同位素的高程效应,计算得到岩溶水补给区的补给高程为1500～1600m;利用氚值的衰变估算,岩溶地下水的运移速度为3. 8～2. 1km /a,反映出岩溶水由补给→排泄区由快到慢的运动过程。文中还利用黄河水与岩溶水的氚值,估算了黄河西岸岩溶水中有25%来自黄河水入渗,75%来自东部岩溶水的补给。     

黄河下游悬河稳定性因素分析

黄河悬河的形成是自然营力与人为因素综合作用的产物.悬河的稳定性关乎黄河下游广大人民的生命财产安全.从地学角度出发,论证了影响黄河悬河稳定性的因素:①地质构造控制机制;②河流地貌的影响;③河床质与土体结构;④流动力地质作用;⑤治理工程对悬河稳定性的影响.     

Pre‐ and post‐impoundment nitrogen in the lower Missouri River

Large water‐sample sets collected from 1899 through 1902, 1907, and in the early 1950s allow comparisons of pre‐impoundment and post‐impoundment (1969 through 2008) nitrogen concentrations in the lower Missouri River. Although urban wastes were not large enough to detectably increase annual loads of total nitrogen at the beginning of the 20^th century, carcass waste, stock‐yard manure, and untreated human wastes measurably increased ammonia and organic‐nitrogen concentrations during low flows. Average total‐nitrogen concentrations in both periods were about 2.5 mg/l, but much of the particulate‐organic nitrogen, which was the dominant form of nitrogen around 1900, has been replaced by nitrate. This change in speciation was caused by the nearly 80% decrease in suspended‐sediment concentrations that occurred after impoundment, modern agriculture, drainage of riparian wetlands, and sewage treatment. Nevertheless, bioavailable nitrogen has not been low enough to limit primary production in the Missouri River since the beginning of the 20^th century. Nitrate concentrations have increased more rapidly from 2000 through 2008 (5 to 12% per year), thus increasing bioavailable nitrogen delivered to the Mississippi River and affecting Gulf Coast hypoxia. The increase in nitrate concentrations with distance downstream is much greater during the post‐impoundment period. If strategies to decrease total‐nitrogen loads focus on particulate N, substantial decreases will be difficult because particulate nitrogen is now only 23% of total nitrogen in the Missouri River. A strategy aimed at decreasing particulates also could further exacerbate land loss along the Gulf of Mexico, which has been sediment starved since Missouri River impoundment. In contrast, strategies or benchmarks aimed at decreasing nitrate loads could substantially decrease nitrogen loadings because nitrates now constitute over half of the Missouri's nitrogen input to the Mississippi. Ongoing restoration and creation of wetlands along the Missouri River could be part of such a nitrate‐reduction strategy. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspended sediment and total dissolved solid yield patterns at the headwaters of Urumqi River,northwestern China: a comparison between glacial and non‐glacial catchments

In order to understand the differences in the suspended sediment and total dissolved solid (TDS) yield patterns between the glacial and non‐glacial catchments at the headwaters of Urumqi River, northwestern China, water samples were collected from a glacier catchment and an empty cirque catchment within the region, during three melting seasons from 2006 to 2008. These samples were analyzed to estimate suspended sediment and TDS concentrations, fluxes and erosion rates in the two adjoining catchments. There were remarked differences in suspended sediment and TDS yield patterns between the two catchments. Suspended sediment concentrations were controlled mainly by the sediment source, whereas TDS concentrations were primarily related to the hydrologic interaction with soil minerals. Generally, the glacial catchment had much higher suspended sediment and TDS yields, together with higher denudation rates, than the non‐glacial catchment. Overall, glacial catchment was mainly dominated by physical denudation process, whereas the non‐glacial catchment was jointly influenced by physical and chemical denudation processes. The observed differences in material delivery patterns were mainly controlled by the runoff source and the glacial processes. The melting periods of glacier and snow were typically the most important time for the suspended sediment and TDS yields. Meanwhile, episodic precipitation events could generate disproportionately large yields. Subglacial hydrology dynamics, glaciers pluck and grind processes could affect erodibility, and the large quantities of dust stored on the glacier surface provided additional sources for suspended sediment transport in the glacial catchment. These mechanisms imply that, in response to climate change, the catchment behaviour will be modified significantly in this region, in terms of material flux. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the relationship between historical land‐use change and water availability: the case of the lower Tarim River region in northwestern China

Natural ecosystems in the region of the lower Tarim River in northwestern China strongly deteriorated since the 1950s due to an expanding desertification. As a result, the downstream Tarim River reaches became permanently dry land. This historical evolution in land‐use change is typically the result of the anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems. On the basis of a spatially distributed hydrological catchment model bidirectionally linked with a fully hydrodynamic MIKE11 river model, land‐use changes characterized by historical changes in leaf area index (LAI) of vegetation, as well as the evolution of irrigated surface areas, can be causally related to changes in water resources (groundwater storage and surface water resources). An increased surface area of irrigated (agricultural) land, together with a majority of inefficient irrigation methods, did lead to a strong increase of water resources consumption of the farmlands located in the upper Tarim River area. Evidently, this evolution influenced available water resources downstream in the Tarim basin. As a result, farmland has been gradually relocated to the upstream regions. This has led to reduced flows from the upper Tarim stream, which subsequently accelerated the dropping of the groundwater level downstream in the basin. This study moreover demonstrates that land surface biomass changes (cumulative LAI) along the lower Tarim River are strongly related to the changes in groundwater storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.