Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

大庆采油一厂GIS数据查询与维护模块的设计与实现

利用VB在GeoStar地理信息系统开发平台上进行二次开发,实现大庆油田采油一厂水泡子地理信息系统的3维数据查询与维护。介绍了系统的模块组成和功能,以及实现各项功能的关键技术。该系统灵活实用、功能较全,通过实际生产应用,反映出在地面水域地理信息数据计算与管理、直观显示等方面具有很好的实用价值。     

Damage identification method using harmonic excitation force considering both modelling and measurement errors

A method of structural damage identification using harmonic excitation force is presented. It considers the effects of both measurement and modelling errors in the baseline finite element model. Damage that accompanies changes in structural parameters can be estimated for a damaged structure from the change between measured vibration responses and ones calculated from the analytical model of the intact structure. In practice, modelling errors exist in the analytical model due to material and geometric uncertainties and a reduction in the degrees of freedom as well as measurement errors, making identification difficult. To surmount these problems, bootstrap hypothesis testing, which enables statistical judgment without information about these errors, was introduced. The method was validated by numerical simulation using a three‐dimensional frame structure and real vibration data for a three‐storey steel frame structure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

整体最小二乘的迭代解法

在引入整体最小二乘平差准则的基础上,推导了整体最小二乘的迭代解法;同时,引入多元函数隐函数求导的方法以确定未知参数对观测数据的线性信息,解决了整体最小二乘下的精度评定问题。给出了运用新的解法在拟合函数确定以及坐标转换参数确定等方面的应用实例,验证了新算法的可行性。     

基于能量原理的Park & Ang损伤模型简化计算方法

Park＆Ang损伤模型综合考虑了结构最大变形和累积滞回耗能的耦合作用,具有一定的先进性,被国内外研究者广泛采用;但由于该模型中参数的计算困难,尤其涉及结构滞回耗能的计算问题时,该模型的应用受到了一定的限制;文中从能量的关系入手,寻找出结构滞回耗能与结构最大位移的关系,利用该关系可方便求解出结构的滞回耗能,从而为该模型的计算提供了一种简便方法;最后,例题分析证明本文的方法简便可行,计算效率高。     

两种震级标度讨论

分析论述了我国在测报近震震级和面波震级业务中存在的种种问题，用现行起算函数测算的ML随震中距存在系统偏差，近场偏低，远场偏高；此函数系统建立的方法有不合理之处，它不适于DD-1仪。用现行公式测算的MS与国际上震级水平不一致，总体趋势偏高；在90(距离上震级零点严重失控；用单一水平向记录计算MS是个原则性差误。需要用新的起算函数系统代替R1(()计算ML; 需要用新的公式取代现行公式计算MS。     

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.     

用经验模型判断能力验证统计分析结果的合理性

能力验证是检测实验室识别与同行差异的一种途径,但中国合格评定国家认可委员会( CNAS)在组织能力验证时发现由于种种原因,有些实验室并不能秉承诚信的原则参加能力验证活动,导致统计分析结果“失真”.如何甄别这种情况,确保所有参加CNAS能力验证活动的实验室都获得公平的评价,这是CNAS亟待解决的问题.本文在用国内文献数据对经验模型进行修正的基础上,提出用上报数据目标标准偏差(或稳健标准偏差,sR)与基于经验模型的计算值之比(H值)是否小于0.5作为判据来审核上报数据统计分析结果的合理性.对13套能力验证数据分析表明:其中10套上报数据sR正常,3套数据存在问题.当目标标准偏差偏小,H＜0.5时,建议采用同样是稳健统计方法的迭代法代替四分位法来计算目标标准偏差(sR),或用经验模型计算结果代替实验值计算Z值.通过验证表明,借助Horwitz经验模型可以判断能力验证数据统计分析结果的合理性,并能有效地识别并防止由于某种原因导致对能力验证结果评价失效的情况.     

快速射电暴的数据统计

快速射电暴于2007年首次在脉冲星巡天的历史数据中被发现,是一种在射电波段观测到的具有色散量的单个强脉冲,其特征为持续时间仅为若干毫秒,峰值流量密度可达到央斯基量级。类似于射电脉冲星的单个脉冲,但其色散显著超过同一视线方向上银河系内星际介质的预期最大值。对截止2018年6月帕克斯望远镜、绿岸望远镜、阿雷西博射电望远镜、UTMOST望远镜和ASKAP望远镜已探测到的52例快速射电暴进行了观测量统计分析,根据模型扣除银河系星际介质导致的色散量后,快速射电暴平均色散量为584.5 pc·cm^-3,暗示着快速射电暴来自河外。通过最佳拟合估算红移幂律分布谱dN/dF_obs=4.14±1.30×F■sky^-1·day^-1。根据分析结果预计,FAST望远镜使用19波束接收机后,其多科学目标同时巡天在经过一年时间内能发现大约10个快速射电暴,将有效地扩大样本数量,为快速射电暴研究提供重要信息。