内蒙古乡镇精细化预报模型及业务试验

文章利用县级台站天气实况插值生成乡镇天气实况资料库进而建立乡镇MOS预报方程的处理方法,建立了内蒙古1242个乡镇及一般风景点24小时天气要素精细化客观预报模型,并建成了业务化系统进行了业务试验运行。预报效果检验表明,这一方法是一种可行的精细化预报研制技术,其预报效果明显好于中央台精细预报指导产品,个别要素甚至略好于人工订正产品,完全可以应用于业务工作中。     

A study of track deflection associated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Sidr (2007) over the Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh

In this study, the dynamics of track deflection associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sidr (2007) are explored using a numerical weather prediction model. It is found that (a) the simulated track of Sidr is sensitive to flow, orographic, and model vertical structure that change the environmental steering flow leading to the track deflection. In particular, the track of TC Sidr is deflected northwestward for cases with lower domain height, horizontal domain covering only part of Himalaya mountains, and varying mountain heights; (b) the simulated track of TC Sidr, when compared with GFS reanalysis data, is mainly controlled by its deep-layer environmental steering flow as a point vortex; (c) the northwestward deflection with lower domain height is caused by an artificially larger high pressure at lower levels in the vicinity of the Himalayas, due to the upward propagation of wave energy being reflected by the upper domain boundary; (d) the significant northwestward deflection associated with the varying mountain height cases is due to the cyclone vortex being advected by the northeasterly monsoonal flow, which is blocked by the mountains in the corresponding cases with mountains; (e) the northeastward track deflection after the landfall of Sidr is explained by the addition of the frictional force.In summary, the model vertical domain height and the Himalaya mountain representation play key roles in influencing the accuracy of TC Sidr track simulation, compared with other factors, such as the vertical resolution, at least for TC Sidr.     

基于Web的713C天气雷达图即时共享系统

在713C天气雷达实时扫描资料定时存盘的基础上,713C天气雷达图即时共享系统利用.NET框架下新的图形接口技术GD I ,实现图形文件的格式转换和传输;在ASP.NET环境下,利用VB.NET开发语言,实现基于W eb服务器的雷达图像共享。     

接地电阻随季节及天气过程变化规律分析

为了解框架结构建筑物基础接地电阻的季节变化特征及天气过程对其变化的影响,分析了2010年广州从化气象局框架建筑物基础接地电阻和相关气象要素的自动气象站观测资料。从季节变化特征来看,框架结构接地电阻相对较为稳定,月平均值2月最大为0.78 Ω,9月份最小为0.57 Ω,全年变化最大值约为0.21 Ω。统计季节变化曲线和暴雨过程发现,接地体电阻与1.5 m土壤温度和1.0 m土壤含水量呈现明显的负相关,接地电阻减小值与暴雨的强度无明显的相关性。文中还对较长时间无降水的干旱过程进行了分析,结果表明：干旱时框架结构接地电阻值有明显的上升趋势,尤其在夏季,干旱对接地电阻影响较大。     

河西走廊东部一次霜冻天气过程成因及其对农业的影响

2016年5月15日清晨河西走廊东部发生区域性强霜冻天气,对农林业生产造成了2004年以来最为严重的灾害。本文利用实时MICAPS常规观测资料、物理量场和河西走廊东部区域内6个国家自动气象观测站和93个区域气象站观测资料,对这次冻害天气过程的天气学成因进行分析,在此基础上分析了霜冻对农业的影响。结果表明强冷空气爆发是造成冻害的直接原因;0 cm地面温度和气温≤0 ℃持续时间长,导致农林作物深度冻伤;前期气温偏高使得农林作物发育期提前,加之霜冻出现时间偏迟,农林作物抵抗冻害的能力明显下降,冻害影响加重;冻害发生后,温度急剧上升、湿度迅速减小,作物水分强烈蒸腾,作物细胞失去受损,导致受灾程度加重。     

Earthquake catalogues and modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between competing models

In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F _M (F _M generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F _M generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F _M in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F _M in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F _M generators. We show that a simple empirical F _M generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F _M ^X generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F _M ^X generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F _M ^X generator.     

夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷预测模型研究

利用2009-2010年湖北电网日用电负荷资料和气象资料,提出了基于电网负荷的分解算法,将电网日最大负荷分解为基础负荷与气象敏感负荷2个主要分量.其中,气象敏感负荷与气温、相对湿度及风速的综合气象敏感负荷条件指数相关.提出了基于权重指数的湖北省面平均气象敏感负荷条件指数的算法.利用相关比法,分析了湖北省气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的非线性关系.基于均方偏差最小原理和非线性最小二乘法,建立了夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的多项式预测关系模型.经2010年9月模型应用检验表明,预测平均误差低于6％.该模型可用于夏季湖北省电力专业气象服务工作.     

Uncertainty in marine weather routing

Weather routing methods are essential for planning routes for commercial shipping and recreational craft. This paper provides a methodology for quantifying the significance of numerical error and performance model uncertainty on the predictions returned from a weather routing algorithm. The numerical error of the routing algorithm is estimated by solving the optimum path over different discretizations of the environment. The uncertainty associated with the performance model is linearly varied in order to quantify its significance. The methodology is applied to a sailing craft routing problem: the prediction of the voyaging time for an ethnographic voyaging canoe across long distance voyages in Polynesia. We find that the average numerical error is an order of magnitude smaller than the performance model uncertainty. These results illustrate the significance of considering the influence of numerical error and performance uncertainty when performing a weather routing study.     

上海城市热岛的精细结构气候特征分析

对上海地区59个自动站2006—2013年逐时气温资料进行了本地化的质量控制,得到一套高分辨率气温数据集。将其与常规观测资料进行对比,发现两者反映的上海年平均及季节平均气温基本一致,说明经质量控制的加密资料是可信的。但其空间差异更为明显,表明高分辨气温数据在城市热环境精细空间分布研究中更具代表性和有效性。基于该数据集研究了上海的城市热岛空间分布。结果表明,加密观测数据可反映出城市热岛的精细结构气候特征:热岛分布由中心城区向四周及西南部扩展,尤其是出现了"多中心"结构特征,即除中心城区的热岛主中心外,在闵行北部和松江南部均出现了与快速城市化进程相联系的区域性副热岛中心;受大气环流季节转换和局地海陆风的影响,热岛位置在秋冬季偏东南方向,春夏季偏西北方向。上述精细化特征在常规资料中并不明显或无法体现。由此可见,经质量控制的加密气温数据在城市热岛的精细结构研究中更具优势。     

离心场中风力电机桩基复杂加载测试设备的研制

桩基础是近海风力发电中经常采用的基础形式,承受着包括低频风循环荷载在内的复杂荷载组合。为了采用离心模型试验来研究风机桩基础特性,研制了离心场中风机桩基础复杂加载测试设备。该套设备除了可以施加水平向和竖向静力荷载外,还实现了离心场中长时间低频率的水平循环加载,并能够实现多种荷载同时或者先后施加。通过一系列测试试验,验证了该套设备的有效性,满足离心模型试验中对模拟风机桩基础的复杂荷载要求。初步试验结果表明,桩顶水平位移随着水平荷载循环周数的增加而增大,但增长速率逐渐减小,至一定周数后,桩顶位移趋于稳定,土体变形主要集中在桩周一定区域内