Short-term shoreline changes due to cross-shore structures: a one-line numerical model

The proposed numerical model simulates the short-term temporal changes in shoreline position due to a structure interrupting the longshore sediment flux. The impacts of both the groin-type construction and underwater trench of arbitrary orientation relative to the shore are discussed. In order to estimate the sediment mass trapped by the structure, a submodel of the longshore sediment transport induced by a random wave field is developed. The contribution of the surface roller in momentum balance as well as in sediment suspension is included. The shoreline changes are computed from the equation deduced from the mass conservation. The perturbations in the longshore sediment discharge caused by a structure are assumed to concentrate within some boundary area of which the spatial scale is proportional to the structure's length until the latter is exceeded by the width of the sediment flux. It is shown in particular that the total effect of a long trench (channel) and a pier in its nearshore part results in general shoreline recession except for the vicinity of a pier. The model is tested against the laboratory data of Baidei et al. (1994) and applied to the Baidara Bay coast (Kara Sea) where a pipeline would be designed.     

Bragg resonant reflection of carrier waves composing wave groups

Numerical analyses for the Bragg resonant reflection of carrier waves associated long waves due to sinusoidally varying seabeds are performed by using a set of coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Boussinesq equations. The Boussinesq equations are firstly approximated with the Fourier decomposition. The coupled governing equations are then derived and used to simulate evolution of both short and long wave components. It is also found that wave groups are generated by two carrier waves with slightly different frequencies. The wave energy of the initial wave components is transferred to other harmonic components during propagation over a long distance. Evolution and reflection of both short and long waves were largely affected by nonlinearity.     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Derived Wind Speed and Wave Parameters with Ocean Buoy Data in the North Indian Ocean

Results of comparison exercises carried out between the state-of-the-art TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived ocean surface wind speed and ocean wave parameters (significant wave height and wave period) and those measured by a set of ocean data buoys in the North Indian Ocean are presented in this article. Altimeter-derived significant wave height values exhibited rms deviation as small as ±0.3 m, and surface wind speed of ±1.6 m/s. These results are found consistent with those found for the Pacific Ocean. For estimation of ocean wave period, the spectral moments-based semiempirical approach, earlier applied on GEOSAT data, was extended to TOPEX/POSEIDON. For this purpose, distributions of first four years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and climatology over the North Indian Ocean were analyzed and a new set of coefficients generated for estimation of wave period. It is shown that wave periods thus estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON data (for the subsequent two years), when compared with independent data set of ocean data buoys deployed in the North Indian Ocean, exhibit improved accuracy (rms ~ ±1.4 nos) over those determined earlier with GEOSAT data.     

Third order contribution to the wave-making resistance of a ship at finite depth of water

This paper presents a potential based boundary element method for solving a nonlinear free surface flow problem for a ship moving with a uniform speed in finite depth of water. The free surface boundary condition is linearized by the systematic method of perturbation in terms of a small parameter up to third order. The surfaces are discretized into flat quadrilateral elements and the influence coefficients are calculated by Morino's analytical formula. Dawson's upstream finite difference operator is used in order to satisfy the radiation condition. The second order solution gives better result than the first or third order solution. So the present method with the second order solution can be adopted as a powerful tool for the hydrodynamic analysis of the thin ship in finite depth of water.     

The Aleutian Low, storm tracks, and winter climate variability in the Bering Sea

Previous studies have found inconsistent results regarding how wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea relate to variations in the North Pacific climate system. This problem is addressed through analysis of data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1950–2003. Composite patterns of sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights, storm tracks and surface air temperature are presented for four situations: periods of strong Aleutian Low, weak Aleutian Low, warm Bering Sea air temperatures, and cold Bering Sea air temperatures. Winter temperatures in the Bering Sea are only marginally related to the strength of the Aleutian Low, and are much more sensitive to the position of the Aleutian Low and to variations in storm tracks. In particular, relatively warm temperatures are associated with either an enhanced storm track off the coast of Siberia, and hence anomalous southerly low-level flow, or an enhanced storm track entering the eastern Bering Sea from the southeast. These latter storms do not systematically affect the mean meridional winds, but rather serve to transport mild air of maritime origin over the Bering Sea. The leading indices for the North Pacific, such as the NP and PNA, are more representative of the patterns of tropospheric circulation and storm track anomalies associated with the strength of the Aleutian Low than patterns associated with warm and cold wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea.     

Wave group statistics from numerical simulations of a random sea

Two commonly used methods of simulating random time series, given a target power spectrum, are discussed. Wave group statistics, such as the mean length of runs of high waves, produced by the different simulation schemes are compared. The target spectra used are obtained from ocean measurements, and cover a wide range of ocean conditions. For a sufficiently large number of spectral components, no significant differences are found in the wave group statistics produced by the two simulation techniques.     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。     

黑河流域水环境演变及其驱动机制研究进展

基于近几十年来诸多学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域水环境演变诸方面研究成果,综述了上游山区成水环境、中游绿洲用水环境和下游荒漠天然绿洲水成环境在不同时间尺度上的演变过程及其驱动机制。通过对各种古环境代用指标的对比研究表明：在大尺度上,流域上下游表现出阶段性的一致性水环境演变趋势;在小尺度上,则表现水环境演变的时空异质性。驱动机制方面,在空间上,流域上、中、下游水环境演变的气候变化和人类活动影响驱动作用各有侧重;在时间上,表现为不同尺度上气候变化与流域人类活动耦合作用的驱动机制。     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.