Prediction of groundwater inrush into coal mines from aquifers underlying the coal seams in China: vulnerability index method and its construction

Groundwater inrushes often occur in the coal mines of China. One of the water sources is the aquifers underlying the coal seams. Because such a water hazard is affected by many factors, data collected from various sources need to be evaluated to predict its occurrence. This paper introduces an innovative approach in which the water inrush risk is represented by the vulnerability index. This method combines the geographic information system and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network is used to estimate the weight of each factor. Unlike the traditional prediction method in which two controlling factors are often evaluated without regard to their relative importance, this new approach incorporates multi-factors and describes the non-linear dynamical processes.     

Climate (in)justice,vulnerability and livelihoods in the Caribbean: The case of the indigenous Caribs in northeastern St. Vincent

This paper examines climate justice from the perspective of three remote indigenous Carib communities located in northeastern St. Vincent, amidst their vulnerability to climatic hazards. The study contributes to the growing body of literature that explores the impacts climate-induced changes are having on Indigenous peoples through its explicit focus on this distinctive social group. The paper entails a detail case study of the particular ways the recent onset of two consecutive extreme weather events have impacted livelihood activities in these traditional farming villages. Primary data were collected in the aftermath of a severe drought that was followed by Hurricane Tomas in 2010, using a mixed method approach involving a questionnaire survey of 311 households, 70 unstructured interviews and 2 focus group sessions held in each of the three communities. The combined impact of these extreme weather events not only brought to light how exposed and sensitive these communities are to climatic hazards, but also illustrated some of the underlying issues driving vulnerability at the local scale that must be dealt with if climate justice is to be achieved. We argue that the factors driving vulnerability within these communities are partly a function of centuries of economic neglect and political marginalization and are also strongly related to the communities’ characteristically lower-socio economic status, geographic location, heavy reliance on land-based resources, coupled with a range of cognitive barriers that affect residents’ capacity to adapt to a changing and variable regional climate regime.     

Deriving vulnerability curves using Italian earthquake damage data

The concerted effort to collect earthquake damage data in Italy over the past 30 years has led to the development of an extensive database from which vulnerability predictions for the Italian building stock can be derived. A methodology to derive empirical vulnerability curves with the aforementioned data is presented herein and the resulting curves have been directly compared with mechanics-based vulnerability curves. However, it has been found that a valid comparison between the empirical and analytical vulnerability curves is not possible mainly due to a number of shortcomings in the database of surveyed buildings. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in deriving vulnerability curves from the current observed damage database is thus also presented.     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

近20年福建省沿海与内陆城市高温热浪脆弱性比较

高温热浪作为一种常见的气象灾害,对人们的生产、生活、健康产生很大的影响。为探索福建省沿海与内陆城市高温热浪脆弱差异性及其形成机制,本文构建了包含暴露性、敏感性、适应性3个维度的高温热浪脆弱性评估模型(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, VSD)。利用1994-2013年逐日极端高温数据和经济社会统计数据,分别对处于沿海和内陆的福州和南平市辖区进行高温热浪脆弱性及其3个维度(暴露性、敏感性、适应性)的评估与比较,并试图解释分析福州市辖区与南平市辖区高温热浪脆弱性的差异及其原因。结果显示：由于地理环境与社会经济系统的显著差异,近20年来,沿海地区高温热浪的脆弱性低于内陆地区,但随着经济发展导致的敏感性增加,前者不断攀升的脆弱性可能会超越后者;内陆地区的人类活动对环境的干扰程度相对较弱,其敏感性不断降低而适应性有所上升,使得其高温热浪的脆弱性不断降低。降低高温热浪脆弱性的关键在于同时增强区域适应性与降低敏感性,这对制定适应性措施具有积极的现实意义。     

Anatomy of a closing window: Vulnerability to changing seasonality in Interior Alaska

Alaska is among the fastest warming places on Earth, and the Interior region is warming the most statewide. Significant regional-scale ecosystem services disruptions are affecting Alaska Natives’ subsistence hunting and harvest success. The well-being of rural native communities is still highly dependent on access and ability to harvest wild foods such as salmon and moose (Alces alces gigas) among many others. Over the last decade communities in the Koyukuk-Middle Yukon (KMY) region of Interior Alaska report an inability to satisfy their needs for harvesting moose before the hunting season closes, citing warmer falls, changing precipitation and water levels, and the regulatory framework as primary causes. Through the integration of ethnographic methods to record indigenous observations and understanding of climate (IC) with analysis of meteorological data, we provide a comprehensive picture of vulnerability to recent warming trends in the Koyukuk-Middle Yukon region of Interior Alaska, one that captures more than statistical analysis of “norms” can provide. We will demonstrate how low exposure resulting in a small shift in seasonality has truly socially significant effects to people “on the ground” when community sensitivity is high because of the convergence of multiple social-ecological stressors. In this case, a seemingly small climatic exposure when combined with high social-ecological system sensitivity results in vulnerability to this climate change-related seasonality shift because of: (a) the effects on moose and the social-ecological dynamics of the system, and (b) the importance of this time of the year to meeting annual subsistence needs.     

The importance of social drivers in the resilient provision of ecosystem services

While a sustained flow of ecosystem services brings tangible benefits to humans, some ecosystem states and suites of services may be more desired by some people than others. Allocating or using the flow of services is loaded with asymmetries, complex power dynamics and political struggles between groups of people. We argue that the issues associated with such allocation and use questions are poorly integrated into the literatures of resilience, sustainability, and vulnerability. To illustrate this, we focus on three socially constructed factors that inhibit a fuller understanding about how to sustain the flow of ecosystem services: (1) rigidity/poverty traps; (2) power asymmetries; and (3) scientization of policy/politicization of science. These factors limit our ability to assess the sustainable flows of ecosystem services, and in particular to better understand the trade-offs and limits to aggregate human activity. We demonstrate that an improved understanding of the allocation trade-offs and limits to the flows of ecosystem services could result from more applied research that integrates the developing fields of deliberative democracy, pragmatic environmental philosophy, and legitimacy and rule compliance. Without the understanding that such integration would bring, researchers and policy makers risk underestimating the limits on flows of ecosystem services and how to accomplish their provision toward the greater collective - rather than individual - good.     

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.     

Social indicators of vulnerability for fishing communities in the Northern Gulf of California,Mexico: Implications for climate change

Marine fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. These fisheries and the communities that depend on them are highly vulnerable to climate change and other interacting anthropogenic threats. The cumulative and interacting effects of these stressors could potentially produce declines in fish production, which would significantly impact artisanal fishers. Assessing relative vulnerability of fishing communities to anthropogenic stressors is an important first step to identifying mitigation or adaptation strategies. This study assessed the vulnerability of 12 coastal communities in the Northern Gulf of California to disruptions in fishing activities from anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The Northern Gulf is a megadiverse area and a major source of fishery resources. Quantitative indicator indices based on secondary and primary data were developed to assess the three aspects of vulnerability: sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. The key components of vulnerability varied amongst communities. Vulnerability was higher in communities with higher fishing dependence and lower socioeconomic diversification. The approach presented here provides important insights into the type of policy actions that might be needed in different communities for adaptation and mitigation.