Drought and the future of rural communities: Opportunities and challenges for climate change adaptation in regional Victoria,Australia

Australia's vulnerability to climate variability and change has been highlighted by the recent drought (i.e. the Big Dry or Millennium Drought), and also recent flooding across much of eastern Australia during 2011 and 2012. There is also the possibility that the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts may increase due to anthropogenic climate change, stressing the need for robust drought adaptation strategies. This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of drought, past and present drought adaptation measures, and the future adaptation strategies required to deal with projected impacts of climate change. The qualitative analysis presented records the actual experiences of drought and other climatic extremes and helps advance knowledge of how best to respond and adapt to such conditions, and how this might vary between different locations, sectors and communities. It was found that more effort is needed to address the changing environment and climate, by shifting from notions of ‘drought-as-crisis’ towards acknowledging the variable availability of water and that multi-year droughts should not be unexpected, and may even become more frequent. Action should also be taken to revalue the farming enterprise as critical to our environmental, economic and cultural well-being and there was also strong consensus that the value of water should be recognised in a more meaningful way (i.e. not just in economic terms). Finally, across the diverse stakeholders involved in the research, one point was consistently reiterated: that ‘it's not just drought’. Exacerbating the issues of climate impacts on water security and supply is the complexity of the agriculture industry, global economics (in particular global markets and the recent/ongoing global financial crisis), and demographic changes (decreasing and ageing populations) which are currently occurring across most rural communities. The social and economic issues facing rural communities are not just a product of drought or climate change – to understand them as such would underestimate the extent of the problems and inhibit the ability to coordinate the holistic, cross-agency approach needed for successful climate change adaptation in rural communities.     

“You can't see them from sitting here”: Evaluating beach user understanding of a rip current warning sign

Rip current warning signs complement lifeguards and flags on many beaches globally to alert beach users to the danger of rip currents and to inform beach users about how to identify and avoid rip currents. Although rip current warning signs, such as the sign distributed by the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are an important part of any beach safety program, their effectiveness is unknown. Moreover, we do not know how beach users respond to or perceive the rip-current warnings represented graphically and textually. Here we report on a spatially and temporally randomized survey of 392 beach users from three heavily frequented public beaches in Texas (Galveston, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi) at the height of the summer beach season in 2012. Beach users were asked to respond to the rip current warning sign developed in 2003–2004 by the U.S. Rip Current Task Force. Nearly half of respondents did not notice any warning sign when approaching the beach. When prompted by enumerators with the Task Force sign, 44.5% of beach users found the sign was “helpful” or “very helpful” to their ability to identify a rip current. However, more than half of beach users had difficulty translating the rip current image into a feature observable while standing or sitting on the shore. Many beach users will respond to a warning sign showing the rip current from the perspective of place, rather than the aerial view representing the ocean as space. This realization guides our specific suggestions for improving the current NOAA warning signs.     

Spatial distribution of unconventional gas wells and human populations in the Marcellus Shale in the United States: Vulnerability analysis

Modern forms of drilling and extraction have recently led to a boom in oil and gas production in the U.S. and stimulated a controversy around its economic benefits and environmental and human health impacts. Using an environmental justice paradigm this study applies Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis to determine whether certain vulnerable human populations are unequally exposed to pollution from unconventional gas wells in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Several GIS-based approaches were used to identify exposed areas, and a t-test was used to find statistically significant differences between rural populations living close to wells and rural populations living farther away. Sociodemographic indicators include age (children and the elderly), poverty level, education level, and race at the census tract level. Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) technique was applied to find spatial clusters where both high well density and high proportions of vulnerable populations occur. The results demonstrate that the environmental injustice occurs in areas with unconventional wells in Pennsylvania with respect to the poor population. There are also localized clusters of vulnerable populations in exposed areas in all three states: Pennsylvania (for poverty and elderly population), West Virginia (for poverty, elderly population, and education level) and Ohio (for children).     

Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature

This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.     

Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Abstract

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policymaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales.     

Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences

A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS).The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average ‘specific loss’ for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0–1).From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 10⁶ Euros.     

Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km²) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m²) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.     

A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.     

Analysis of damage data of low-rise buildings subjected to a shallow Mw6.3 earthquake

In May 2008 a shallow M_w6.3 earthquake struck South Iceland with an epicentre close to two small towns. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected. The recorded maximum PGA was 0.88 g. A great deal of damage occurred, but there was no loss of life. In Iceland all buildings are registered in a detailed official database and insurance against natural disasters is obligatory. As the repair costs for every affected building had to be assessed for insurance purposes this provided an unusual opportunity to review structural performance across the whole population of buildings in the affected area. The estimated repair cost was classified in a number of subcategories covering structural and non-structural damage for five different residential building typologies. Study of these buildings showed that non-structural damage dominated the overall damage. The main monetary damage was cosmetic damage of partition walls and flooring. The structural systems performed quite well and no buildings collapsed.     

Evaluation of CPT-based Liquefaction Procedures at Regional Scale

The liquefaction database describing the response of the Christchurch area in the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) provides a unique basis for evaluating the regional application of various liquefaction analysis procedures, from liquefaction triggering analyses through to liquefaction vulnerability parameters. This database was used to compare the Robertson and Wride [17], Moss et al. [15] and Idriss and Boulanger [7] liquefaction triggering procedures as well as evaluate the impact of the 2014 versus 2008 Cone Penetration Test (CPT)-based liquefaction triggering procedure by Idriss and Boulanger on four liquefaction vulnerability parameters (S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN), the correlation of those parameters with observed liquefaction-induced damage patterns in the CES, and the mapping of expected damage levels for 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions in Christchurch. The effects on S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN were small relative to other sources of variability for the majority of the affected areas, particularly where liquefaction was clearly severe or clearly not. Nonetheless, considering the separation of the land damage populations as well as consistency between the events, the the IB-2008 liquefaction triggering procedures appears to give a slightly better fit to the mapped liquefaction-induced land damage for the regional prediction of liquefaction vulnerability for the Christchurch soils. The Boulanger and Idriss [1] triggering procedure produces improved agreement between the liquefaction vulnerability parameters and observations of damage for: areas south of the Central Business District (CBD) where there tends to be higher soil Fines Content (FC), and localized areas that experienced liquefaction during the smaller Magnitude (M) earthquake events. Implementation of the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure for mapping of expected liquefaction-induced damage at 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions is shown to require use of representative Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)-M values consistent with the de-aggregation of the seismic hazard. Use of equivalent magnitude-scaled PGA-M7.5 pairs, where the equivalency relates to previously published MSF relationships, with the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure is shown to be unconservative for certain situations.