Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation

It is now widely recognised that the most significant impacts of global warming are likely to be experienced through changes in the frequency of extreme events, including flooding. This paper reviews physical and empirical arguments which suggest that global warming may result in a more intense hydrological cycle, with an associated increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy precipitation. Results derived from enhanced-greenhouse experiments using global climate models (GCMs) are shown to be consistent with these physical and empirical arguments. Detailed analysis of output from three GCMs indicates the possibility of substantial increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme daily precipitation, with amplification of the effect as the return period increases. Moreover, return period analyses for locations in Australia, Europe, India, China and the USA indicate that the results are global in scope. Subsequent discussion of the limitations of GCMs for this sort of analysis highlights the need for caution when interpreting the precipitation results presented here. However, the consistency between physically-based expectations, empirical observations, and GCM results is considered sufficient for the GCM results to be taken seriously, at least in a qualitative sense, especially considering that the alternative seems to be reliance by planners on the fundamentally flawed concept of a stationary climate.     

微量元素及重矿物判别分析在西昆仑山前第三系划分对比中的应用

采用微量元素和重矿物判别分析方法解决百昆仑山前长期未解决的红色哑地层划分对比问题。微量元素和重矿物与沉积环境及物源性质密切相关。不同时期，不同水系（物源区）的沉积岩具有不同的重矿物和微量元素特征。在西昆仑山前初步建立了３条微量元素和重矿物标准剖面，每条剖面均建立了划分组段的微量元素和重矿物两套判别函数。用以解决地面或井下未知层位样品的判别归属问题，经地面和井下验证取得初步成效。     

Performance of the stereoscopic system of the HEGRA imaging air erenkov telescopes: Monte Carlo simulations and observations

Based on the Monte Carlo simulations we have studied the performance of the HEGRA system of imaging air erenkov telescopes (IACTs) in its present configuration of 4 IACTs as well as in its future final configuration of 5 IACTs. Here we present the results on the basic characteristics of the IACT system which are used in the standard data analysis procedure, i.e., the collection areas, the detection rates, the angular resolution, the energy resolution, and the γ/hadron-separation efficiency. By comparing several key Monte Carlo predictions with experimental results it is possible to check the accuracy of the simulations. The Monte Carlo results concerning hadron-nuclear showers are tested with the recorded cosmic ray events and the results concerning photon-induced showers are tested with a large data sample of γ-rays observed from BL Lac object Mkn 501 during its high flaring activity in 1997. Summarizing the simulations and current observations we give the basic recommendations of using the instrument and the major values of its sensitivity.     

2010-2018年天山北坡短时强降水环境参数特征及阈值初探

利用常规观测、自动站逐时雨量及EC细网格等资料，分析2010-2018年6-8月天山北坡71次短时强降水过程时空分布特点、温度对数压力图（T-lnP）形态及其关键物理参数等，并对其分类，通过集合箱线图分析各型物理参数特征，归纳总结预警阈值。结果表明：天山北坡短时强降水主要受低槽（涡）及其分裂短波影响，多发生在沿山、山地迎风坡、戈壁湖泊绿洲交界等地附近，6月出现最多，7月和8月相当，午后至夜间发生概率较大。T-lnP温湿廓线形态主要可分为整层湿（I型）、上干下湿（II型）、上湿下干（III型）和干绝热（IV型）等4型，其中IV型33次为最多，占总次数46.5%，其次是III型28次，占总次数38%，第三是I型8次，最少II型仅3次。在分析关键物理参数集合箱线图各区间值基础上，以25%百分位作为建议预警最低阈值，总结提炼关键物理参数阈值为T850 -500≥23℃，地面至700hPa露点温度平均值≥1.5℃，CAPE≥110 J?Kg-1，CIN≥30 J?Kg-1； 0～6km垂直风切变≥6.5 m?s-1，暖云层厚度≥1.1 km，K指数≥24.3℃，SI指数≥-1.3℃，抬升指数（LI）≥-3.9℃及A指数≥-9.8等，并给出各型组合物理参数。     

哈尔滨春季一次罕见重度霾天气成因分析

利用气象、环境、卫星遥感火点监测等资料，从环流形势、气象要素、污染物和污染传输特征等方面对哈尔滨2018年4月4日夜间至5日白天罕见重度霾天气成因进行分析。结果表明，此次重度霾天气首要污染物为PM2.5，污染最重时PM2.5浓度高达507μg?m-3，秸秆焚烧是污染物的主要来源，既有本地源又有外地源，利用HYSPLIT模型模拟出这次重度霾天气污染传输特征。重度霾时段，近地面风速小，为1.5m·s-1左右，最小为0.1m·s-1，风向呈弱气旋性辐合、湿度增大有利于形成霾。低层存在较强的贴地逆温，逆温层顶高度约为100m,逆温强度约为1.5℃/100m，不利于污染物在垂直方向上扩散。地面均压场和高空弱高压脊、暖锋锋区和暖平流为这次重度霾天气提供了有利的大气环流背景条件。     

泥沙吸附重金属污染物室内静态试验研究

从吸附反应动力学方程和质量守恒方程出发,导得室内静态试验中泥沙吸附量和水相重金属浓度随时间变化的计算公式,并得出泥沙平衡吸附量和水相平衡浓度随泥沙吸附特性、水相重金属离子初始浓度和泥沙浓度变化的计算公式。结合室内试验,认为泥沙浓度不影响吸附特性参数,如饱和吸附量b、吸附-解吸速率常数k及吸附速率系数k1.     

初夏昆明罕见大暴雨分析

１９８６年６月６－７日，云南昆明出现了１９５１年以来一次最大暴雨。天气学与诊断分析表明，初夏云南可产生单点局地大暴雨，量级与盛夏、秋季相当。５００ｈＰａ干冷槽东移，７００ｈＰａ双涡吸引旋转西移，地面弱冷空气诱发静止锋锋生，强垂直风切变，昆明上空出现正反环流圈是该次过程的主要特征，与低纬度原地区区域性大－暴雨特征不同。     

中国主要类型土壤若干重金属临界含量和环境容量的区域分异

本文通过8年研究结果,归纳、分析了中国的砖红壤、赤红壤、红壤、紫红土、黄棕壤、棕壤、黑土、褐色土、灰钙土等主要类型土壤中Cd、Cu、Pb、As的土壤临界含量和土壤环境容量分布特征,发现他们大多数或在相当大的程度上随土壤类型由南向北、由东向西的分布而分异,具有一定的地带性分异特征。Cd、Cu是由南到北、由东向西增大;而As则相反,由南到北、由东向西减小。     

某冶炼厂附近农田镉污染调查与对策

对遭受某铜矿冶炼厂镉污染的湖北省某镇约30km^2的农田土壤进行了调查,对土壤耕作层与亚耕层以及污染源(废气、废水和炉渣)中全量Cd和有效态Cd含量的系统测定结果表明：未受Cd污染、受轻度污染及受中度污染的土壤面积分别占3．6％,82．1％,14．3％;土壤中全量Cd及有效态Cd含量的分布规律均表现为西灌区＞东灌区＞灌间区;土壤耕作层与亚耕层中全量Cd含量的差异不大,而有效态Cd则主要富集于土壤耕作层中;受土壤pH值的影响,Cd在污染区土壤中的活化率低于远离冶炼厂未受污染的农田对照区。该镇农田的Cd污染主要来源于某铜矿冶炼厂的废气和废水,而炉渣的污染相对较小。运用生态方法治理该镇农田的Cd污染具有一定的可行性和适用性,值得研究利用。     

超稠油油藏转小井距蒸汽驱条件及时机

蒸汽驱是稠油油藏经过蒸汽吞吐开采后进一步提高原油采收率的主要热采阶段。但不是说任何时候转驱都可取得较好的效果。笔者系统研究了影响蒸汽驱开采效果的因素：原油粘度、油层有效厚度、纯总厚度比、起始含油饱和度和油层非均质性等,确定出适宜蒸汽驱开采的油藏条件。在分析稠油油藏加密吞吐后油藏条件变化的基础上．利用油藏工程数值模拟技术研究确定出超稠油油藏转小井距蒸汽驱的合理时机。