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131.
本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析,指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西-北西西向压应力作用下,以水平剪切错动为主。同时,采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析,预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。 相似文献
132.
133.
用西北五省(区)135个代表站1960—1990年的年、季平均气温资料,进行模糊聚类分区。在0.001信度水平下,年平均气温可以分为四个大区,分别是:新疆北部区、西北主区、柴达木盆地和长江黄河上游区。由此,建立了四个区的全年和冬、夏季气温代表序列,并对近几十年的西北五省(区)气温变化进行了初步分析。 相似文献
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135.
P. J. Fraser M. A. K. Khalil R. A. Rasmussen L. P. Steele 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1984,1(2):125-135
Results of more than 800 new measurements of methane (CH4) concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere (34–41° S, 130–150° E) are reported. These were obtained between September 1980 and March 1983 from the surface at Cape Grim, Tasmania, through the middle (3.5–5.5 km) to the upper troposphere (7–10 km). The concentration of CH4 increased throughout the entire troposphere over the measurement period, adding further support to the view that CH4 concentrations are currently increasing on a global scale. For data averaged vertically through the troposphere the rate of increase found was 20 ppbv/yr or 1.3%/yr at December 1981. In the surface CH4 data a seasonal cycle with a peak to peak amplitude of approximately 28 ppbv is seen, with the minimum concentration occurring in March and the maximum in September–October. A cycle with the same phase as that seen at the surface, but with a significantly decreased amplitude, is apparent in the mid troposphere but no cycle is detected in the upper tropospheric data. The phase and amplitude of the cycle are qualitatively in agreement with the concept that the major sink for methane is oxidation by hydroxyl radicals. Also presented is evidence of a positive vertical gradient in methane, with a suggestion that the magnitude of this gradient has changed over the period of measurements. 相似文献
136.
The global distribution of methane in the troposphere 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
L. P. Steele P. J. Fraser R. A. Rasmussen M. A. K. Khalil T. J. Conway A. J. Crawford R. H. Gammon K. A. Masarie K. W. Thoning 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1987,5(2):125-171
Methane has been measured in air samples collected at approximately weekly intervals at 23 globally distributed sites in the NOAA/GMCC cooperative flask sampling network. Sites range in latitude from 90° S to 76° N, and at most of these we report 2 years of data beginning in early 1983. All measurements have been made by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector at the NOAA/GMCC laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. All air samples have been referenced to a single secondary standard of methane-in-air, ensuring a high degree of internal consistency in the data. The precision of measurements is estimated from replicate determinations on each sample as 0.2%. The latitudinal distribution of methane and the seasonal variation of this distribution in the marine boundary layer has been defined in great detail, including a remarkable uniformity in background levels of methane in the Southern Hemisphere. We report for the first time the observation of a complete seasonal cycle of methane at the South Pole. A significant vertical gradient is observed between a sea level and a high altitude site in Hawaii. Globally averaged background concentrations in the marine boundary layer have been calculated for the 2 year-period May 1983–April 1985 inclusive, from which we find an average increase of 12.8 ppb per year, or 0.78% per year when referenced to the globally averaged concentration (1625 ppb) at the mid-point of this period. We present evidence that there has been a slowing down in the methane growth rate.Presented at the Conference on the Scientific Application of Baseline Observations of Atmospheric Composition (SABOAC), Aspendale, Australia, 7–9 November 1984. 相似文献
137.
本选用中国冰川目录数据库中的青藏高原内陆水系冰川粒雪线、中值高度和地理坐标资料,利用计算机绘图方法,绘制出冰川粒支线、中值高度在空间的变化趋势,以便全面认识该地区的冰川发育特征。 相似文献
138.
本文论述了1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震对中国地震大趋势所产生的可能影响。作者认为,这次地震应属于中国大陆板内地震,它可能标志着中国大陆及边邻地区7级以上地震从本世纪以来第五活动期(起始于1988年)的相对平静时段转入活跃时段并可能步入高潮。它打破了近十年来中国大陆7级地震只分布于青藏块体的格局,但并不意味着本期主体活动区(青藏块体及边邻)的改变;同时,这次地震标志着东南沿海地区进入新的地震活跃幕;台湾地区7级地震活动也将增强。 相似文献
139.
从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件,把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测GM(1,1)中,建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区(带)的震级序列,在等维情况下,对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣,讨论了影响预测结果的因素,最后给出了不同目标震级下各区(带)的预测值。 相似文献
140.
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN LAHORE AND MIANWALI OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES 下载免费PDF全文
Surface air temperatures recorded over the past three decades at the weather stations located in Lahore (anindustrialized and densely populated city) and Mianwali (a small and sparsely populated city) were analyzed in order tostudy their climatic trend.Lahore,where meteorological data are recorded at two weather stations (city station and air-port station) indicates a cooling trend,of about 0.5℃ per record period of 1953—1992,for the airport station (31°31′N,74°24′E) and a slight warming trend,of about 0.2℃,for the city station (31°33′N,74°20′E) for the record period of 1950—1992.The Mianwali weather station (32°33′N,71°31′E) also shows a slight cooling trend,of about 0.4℃ per recordperiod of 1959—1992.The climatic variability at these stations was studied by computing seasonal and annual tempera-ture anomalies.The results are explained in terms of the local environmental conditions. 相似文献