A Bayesian approach to the detection of gross errors based on posterior probability

Existing methods for gross error detection, based on the mean shift model or the variance inflation model, have hardly considered or taken advantage of the potential prior information on the unknown parameters. This paper puts forward a Bayesian approach for gross error detection when prior information on the unknown parameters is available. Firstly, based on the basic principle of Bayesian statistical inference, the Bayesian method—posterior probability method—for the detection of gross errors is established. Secondly, considering either non-informative priors or normal-gamma priors on the unknown parameters, the computational formula of the posterior probability is given for both the mean shift model and the variance inflation model, respectively, under the condition of unequal weight and independent observations. Finally, as an example, a triangulation network is computed and analyzed, which shows that the method given here is feasible.     

Lateral and subsurface flows impact arctic coastal plain lake water budgets

Arctic thaw lakes are an important source of water for aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. Many recent studies have observed changes in Arctic surface waters related to climate warming and permafrost thaw; however, explaining the trends and predicting future responses to warming is difficult without a stronger fundamental understanding of Arctic lake water budgets. By measuring and simulating surface and subsurface hydrologic fluxes, this work quantified the water budgets of three lakes with varying levels of seasonal drainage, and tested the hypothesis that lateral and subsurface flows are a major component of the post‐snowmelt water budgets. A water budget focused only on post‐snowmelt surface water fluxes (stream discharge, precipitation, and evaporation) could not close the budget for two of three lakes, even when uncertainty in input parameters was rigorously considered using a Monte Carlo approach. The water budgets indicated large, positive residuals, consistent with up to 70% of mid‐summer inflows entering lakes from lateral fluxes. Lateral inflows and outflows were simulated based on three processes; supra‐permafrost subsurface inflows from basin‐edge polygonal ground, and exchange between seasonally drained lakes and their drained margins through runoff and evapotranspiration. Measurements and simulations indicate that rapid subsurface flow through highly conductive flowpaths in the polygonal ground can explain the majority of the inflow. Drained lakes were hydrologically connected to marshy areas on the lake margins, receiving water from runoff following precipitation and losing up to 38% of lake efflux to drained margin evapotranspiration. Lateral fluxes can be a major part of Arctic thaw lake water budgets and a major control on summertime lake water levels. Incorporating these dynamics into models will improve our ability to predict lake volume changes, solute fluxes, and habitat availability in the changing Arctic. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Major ion variation and efflux related to discharge in a mafic piedmont province watershed

Major-ion variability related to discharge was analysed in a forested 187 km² mafic Piedmont Province watershed using statistical (both parametric and non-parametric), graphical (box-plots) and curve-fitting (log concentration-log discharge) techniques. Baseflow alkalinity and base cation concentrations show systematic temporal variations as a result of the influx of additional water that occurs during the late autumn to early spring. Regression analyses indicate that storm-related discharge and baseflow generated during periods of water surplus are characterized by similar dilution slopes. Mass balance estimates indicate that the additional water, which comprises storm/recession discharge and base-flow from late autumn to early spring, is between about 30 and 80% as concentrated as summer low-flow. The thick clay-rich soil mantle represents a key control on solute concentrations in that it stores water for periods of time sufficient for a high degree of water-mineral interaction to occur. Hence solute-discharge relationships (C = aQ^b, where b is typically < 0) are characterized by relatively low slope values and there is ample acid neutralizing capacity throughout the range of discharge. Owing to the predominance of amphibolite, solute efflux related to rock weathering from the Falling Creek watershed is much greater than other more felsic locations within the region. Statistical analyses (Mest and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test), along with accompanying box-plot representations, provide a useful method of describing systematic annual hydrochemical variation within streamflow. These methods are particularly effective for those instances in which a long-term data set exists, but is limited to relatively few sampling periods per year.     

The impact of storm events on solute exports from a glaciated forested watershed in western New York,USA

This study analysed the importance of precipitation events from May 2003 to April 2004 on surface water chemistry and solute export from a 696 ha glaciated forested watershed in western New York State, USA. The specific objectives of the study were to determine: (a) the temporal patterns of solutes within individual storm events; (b) the impact of precipitation events on seasonal and annual export budgets; and (c) how solute concentrations and loads varied for precipitation events among seasons as functions of storm intensity and antecedent moisture conditions. Analysis of solute trajectories showed that NH₄⁺, total Al and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) peaked on the hydrograph rising limb, whereas dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations peaked following the discharge peak. Sulphate and base‐cations displayed a dilution pattern with a minimum around peak discharge. End‐member mixing analysis showed that throughfall contributions were highest on the rising limb, whereas valley‐bottom riparian waters peaked following the discharge peak. The trajectories of NO₃^? concentrations varied with season, indicating the influence of biotic processes on the generation, and hence flux, of this solute. Storm events had the greatest impact on the annual budgets for NH₄⁺, K⁺, total dissolved Al, DON and DOC. Storm events during summer had the greatest impact on seasonal solute budgets. Summer events had the highest hourly discharges and high concentrations of solutes. However, NO₃^? and DOC exports during a spring snowmelt event were considerably more than those observed for large events during other periods of the year. Comparisons among storms showed that season, precipitation amount, and antecedent moisture conditions affected solute concentrations and loads. Concentrations of solutes were elevated for storms that occurred after dry antecedent conditions. Seven of the largest storms accounted for only 15% of the annual discharge, but were responsible for 34%, 19%, 64%, 13%, 39% and 24% of the annual exports of NH₄⁺, K⁺, Al, NO₃^?, DON and DOC respectively. These results suggest that the intense and infrequent storms predicted for future climate‐change scenarios will likely increase the exports of solutes like DOC, DON, NH₄⁺, Al and K⁺ from watersheds. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西北太平洋海温与广东省汛期降水的关系

将西北太平洋分为８个海区，分析了广东省汛期（４－９月）降水与各海区海温的关系，并用因子分析法对９－２月各海区的相互关系进行了分析，发现降维后头４个主因子的方差贡献占总方差的８２．２３％；对主因子的载荷矩阵进行了极大方差旋转，对头４个主因子的物理意义进行了初步的解释。最后建立了汛期各月降水与海温的预报方程，经试报使用，高于近１０年的平均业务预报水平，对广东省的汛期降水短期气候预测有较好的参考价值。     

GPS／BeiDou 组合单点定位的定权与结果分析

利用Helmert方差分量估计方法为GPS/BeiDou组合单点定位不同系统观测值定权,获得了合理的权值。分析了开阔环境和遮挡环境两种情况下的动态GPS/BeiDou组合单点定位的精度。结果表明：在静态观测和动态观测中,组合单点定位与单独G PS单点定位相比精度有显著提高。     

High salinity winter outflow from a mega inverse-estuary—the Great Australian Bight

Conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observations taken in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) during ORV Franklin cruise Fr 07/94 in July 1994 indicated the presence of a dense bottom layer at the head of the GAB, which flowed along the sea floor towards the shelf-break as a gravity current The north central region of the GAB was stratified with a maximum salinity difference of between 0.4 and 0.5. The outflow was confined to the shelf and was directed in a south-easterly direction with little evidence of cross-shelf transport. The flow exhibited a well-defined bottom interface evident from the head of the GAB to near the mouth of Spencer Gulf (SG), where the surface-bottom salinity difference was about 0.3. The mean thickness of the outflow was about 15 m. An estimate of the speed of the outflow at the discharge over the shelf-break was made using the zero entrainment assumption. This yielded a speed of <16 cm s⁻¹, which remarkably was consistent with near bottom current meter measurements (16 cm s⁻¹) on the continental shelf edge, reported south of the Eyre Peninsula. A mass budget analysis indicated that the outflow, which probably is partially maintained by the gravity current and partly by a wind-driven circulation would exist over the period, July–December, with a peak transport of about 10⁶ m³s⁻¹ (1 Sverdrup) which is approximately twenty times that of the bottom outflow from the adjoining Spencer Gulf.     

Charting a low carbon future for shipping: A UK perspective

Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO₂ reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade.     

Sediment transmission and storage: the implications for reconstructing landform development

The late Holocene (last 3000 years) development of the lower Ribble valley (northwest England) displays evidence for a complex response to a sediment recharge event forced by land‐use change induced increases in erosion and sediment delivery. The deposition of fluvial sediments during the late Holocene was restricted to a series of reaches or depocenters separated by zones with no sediment accumulation constrained by older glacial and fluvial terrain. Apparent reach‐wide correlations of fluvial terraces break down under the scrutiny applied by comprehensive and extensive radiocarbon control. Bayesian testing of relative order models show that large‐scale geomorphological changes, e.g. the progression from one terrace level to another, were time transgressive between different depocenters. The different histories of sediment delivery and storage are probably a function of local‐ and process‐scale variations in these depocenters, and reflect (dis)connectivity relationships within a reach in propagating a basin‐scale change (superslug) in the sediment regime. Disconnectivity in the depositional regime through a fluvial reach limits what we can reconstruct in terms of sediment budgets, but radiocarbon dating of multiple palaeochannels offers considerable potential for landform‐based research to uncover rates of change within individual depocenters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of offshore bar decay: Sediment budgets and the role of lower shoreface processes

Long-term, net offshore bar migration is a common occurrence on many multiple-barred beaches. The first stage of the process involves the generation of a longshore bar close to the shoreline that oscillates about a mean position for some time, followed by a stage of net offshore migration across the upper shoreface, and finally a stage of decaying bar form through loss of sediment volume at the outer boundary of the upper shoreface. The phenomenon has been previously documented in the Netherlands, the USA, the Canadian Great Lakes, and in New Zealand, but our present understanding of the morphodynamic processes and sediment transport pathways involved in bar decay is limited. In this paper, long-term, net offshore bar migration is investigated at Vejers Beach, located on the North Sea coast of Denmark where offshore bar migration rates are of the order of 45–55 m a⁻¹. A wave height transformation model confirmed that the decay of the outer bar results in increased wave heights and undertow speeds at the more landward bar potentially causing this bar to speed up its offshore migration. The causes for outer bar decay were investigated through field measurements of sediment transport at the decaying bar and at a position further seaward on the lower shoreface. The measurements showed that a cross-shore transport convergence exists between the bar and the lower shoreface and that the loss of sediment involved in bar decay is associated with a longshore directed transport by non-surf zone processes. At Vejers, and possibly elsewhere, the net offshore migration of bars and the subsequent loss of sand during bar decay is an important part of the beach and shoreface sediment budget.