Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.     

How good is good? Human values and Europe's proposed Marine Strategy Directive

The adoption of the proposed European Marine Strategy Directive is an opportunity for a comprehensive policy for protecting, improving and sustainably using Europe's environmentally degraded seas. It calls for an ecosystem-based approach to management where humans are regarded as a key system component. Although the proposed wording has been the subject of fierce debate, the central policy goal remains achieving "Good Environmental Status". The interpretation of "good" is key to implementation and relates to human values and worldviews. We demonstrate how these vary widely across Europe. Solution of fundamental considerations such as the assignation of reference states, the balance between precautionary and evidence-based action, the degree of subsidiarity, and conservation strategies including marine protected areas, will ultimately depend upon public understanding, involvement in and support for the Directive. The social element, critical to effective adaptive management, requires greater attention within the context of a regional seas geographical framework.     

Values shift in response to social learning through deliberation about protected areas

Salient, long-term solutions to address global environmental change hinge on management strategies that are inclusive of local voices and that recognize the array of values held by surrounding communities. Group-based participatory processes that involve deliberation of multiple stakeholders with varying perspectives—particularly social learning—hold promise to advance inclusive conservation by identifying and creating a shared understanding of the landscape. However, few studies have empirically investigated how the value basis of stakeholder deliberation changes over time in relation to social learning. This study provided a novel platform for local stakeholders from Interior Alaska to deliberate on landscape change and associated management practices in ways that shifted their value orientations. In particular, we used a pre-test, post-test experimental design involving mixed methods to measure how different types of values changed as a result of social learning through an online discussion forum. We found evidence that social learning: 1) activated shared values that were previously hidden through building a relational understanding of others, and 2) shifted values that spanned three levels of psychological stability. As hypothesized, social values that represented expressed preferences for landscape change were most likely to shift in association with social learning. Conversely, shifts in individual values towards self-transcendence required learning to go beyond the discussion forum and be situated within the participants’ broader communities of practice. Overall, this longitudinal study highlights how social learning facilitated through deliberation presents opportunities to identify shared values and spark value shifts across stakeholder groups, thus incorporating diverse viewpoints into decision-making about global environmental change.     

Synergies and tradeoffs in how managers,scientists, and fishers value coral reef ecosystem services

Managing ecosystems in a changing environment faces the challenge of balancing diverse competing perspectives on which ecosystem services – nature's benefits – to prioritize. Consequently, we measured and compared how different stakeholders (managers, scientists and fishers) prioritize specific coral reef ecosystem services. Managers’ priorities were more aligned with scientists’ priorities but all stakeholder groups agreed that fishery, education, and habitat were high priorities. However, stakeholder groups differed in the extent to which they prioritized certain services. Fishers tended to assigned greater estimates to fishery and education, managers to culture, and scientists to coastal protection. Furthermore, using network analysis to map the interactions between stakeholders’ priorities, we found distinct synergies and trade-offs in how ecosystem services were prioritized, representing areas of agreement and conflict. In the fishers’ network, trade-offs emerged between two services, both of a higher priority, such as fishery and habitat. Conversely, in the scientists’ network, trade-offs emerged between services of a higher and lower priority, such as habitat and culture. The trade-offs and synergies that emerged in the managers’ network overlap with both fishers’ and scientists’ suggesting a potential brokering role that managers can play in balancing both priorities and conflicts. We suggest that measuring ecosystem service priorities can highlight key areas of agreement and conflict, both within and across stakeholder groups, to be addressed when communicating and prioritizing decisions.     

One thousand ways to experience loss: A systematic analysis of climate-related intangible harm from around the world

A situated and socially engaged science of loss arising from climate change takes people’s lived experiences with risk and harm as its fundamental starting point. It foregrounds what losses occur, where and how, which of these losses matter most to people and why, and whether or not such losses are considered acceptable and potentially reversible. However, obtaining such insight is difficult if the many things people value, across space and time, are intangible, i.e. they cannot and perhaps should not be quantified, and hence are often overlooked and omitted. This is the case, for instance, for the symbolic and affective dimensions of culture and place, such as sense of belonging, personal and collective notions of identity, and ways of knowing and making sense of the world, all of which are already undermined by climate change. Here, we perform the first systematic comparative analysis of people-centered and place-specific experiences with climate-related harm to people’s values that are largely intangible and non-commensurable. We draw upon >100 published case studies from around the world to make visible and concrete what matters most to people and what is at stake in the context of climate-related hazards and impacts. We show that the same threats can produce vastly different outcomes, ranging from reversible damages to irreversible losses and anticipated future risks, across numerous value dimensions, for indigenous and non-indigenous families, communities, and countries at all levels of development. Through this analysis, we also empirically validate dimensions of harm that have been produced and reproduced in the literature, albeit often devoid of distinct substance, lived experiences, and intrinsic significance. We end by discussing ethical implications of the ‘one thousand ways’ to encounter harm and offer recommendations to overcome methodological challenges in advancing a science of loss grounded in place.     

The uses of value

This paper proposes a new theory of value based on the observation of how people use this term. In everyday life the word value is commonly used to refer equally to what might be regarded as the incommensurable polarity between value as price, and value as priceless, sometimes portrayed as the contrast between value and values. My theory starts from trying to learn how people manage to use value as a means of bridging this divide. As such it opposes itself to ‘bottom-line’ theories of value. These range from vulgarised forms of Marx’s labour theory of value, to the way management consultants tried to impose a universal belief in shareholder value. An example is provided of how such bottom-line thinking undermined a UK government audit called best-value, and is also found in highly reductionist attempts to impose new-age values in management. By contrast, examples are given of how value is created in the process of bridging the divide between value and values, starting from the work of Zelizer and the case of concubines in 5th century BC Athens. Further examples range from the department store John Lewis to the Swedish social democratic state. Finally the application of this theory is considered in relation to a recent attempts to evaluate the impact of the mobile phone on low-income Jamaicans.     

Values towards waterways in south east Queensland: Why people care

The management of waterways, including marine parks, typically centres on assessment of biophysical phenomena, whilst social dimensions are relatively neglected. The diverse ways people interact with and relate to aquatic environments are consequently overlooked in planning and management. This misses opportunities as people's decisions and actions have direct and indirect impacts on how natural systems function. Effective management requires appreciation of how people interact with these environments in order to tailor, and build public support for, management plans and ensure compliance. This qualitative study, using 30 semi-structured interviews, explores people's values towards Moreton Bay Marine Park and its tributary rivers in south east Queensland, Australia. The values offer a powerful means to understand the different ways people relate to these waters. The study found that these waterway environments provide people with a diversity of rich and meaningful experiences, and that individuals hold several values each; they are not discrete. Some types of value frequently occur together. These clusters of values suggest new ways of working with the public to achieve management goals of protecting and improving waterway environments.     

National parks in Lithuania: Old environment in a new democracy

Despite a long tradition of nature and forestry management, conservation of nature has a relatively short history in Lithuania. Most aspects of environmental management are facing considerable challenges since Lithuania's recent freedom from the 50-year Soviet regime. New democracies tend to develop new and often unpredictable ramifications for environmental management, and there is an urgent need for developing national park concepts and planning models that are responsive to the local context. This paper discusses some of the challenges encountered in developing and adjusting national park concepts. Lithuanian parks, like protected areas in other parts of the world, are characterised by the interaction of diverse natural and socio-cultural factors. This more or less unique complexity is the essence of the national park identity. Sustainable management of integrated protected area resources demands a change from the former expert-based top-down Soviet management. New models of collaborative, adaptive management will need to consider multiple values and goals and be able to function within rapidly changing political and administrative contexts.     

Attitudes to Geography in Australia

This article reports on an initial study in Australia of attitudes to geography held by members of the community at large. The study focused on perceptions of the role of geography in contributing to wider social goals relating to lifelong learning and living. Groups of business people, government representatives, professional people, educators and members of the general public were surveyed. The results focus on the perceptions of the importance of geography to Australian society; important knowledge, skills and values that are learned while doing geography; and the importance of geography for work. The generally positive appreciation of geography that is held by the wider community needs to be promoted carefully in the education sectors and in society at large if geography is to live up to the importance that is ascribed to it.     

A Travel Cost Study of Duck Hunting in the Upper South East of South Australia

Wetlands in the Upper South East (USE) of South Australia yield a range of values to their owners and to the wider community. One such value is that generated by duck hunting in the region. Wetland owners receive private benefits from hunting fees, while hunters gain a non-monetary consumers' surplus. These non-monetary benefits received by duck hunters through their enjoyment of hunting in wetlands are the primary focus of this paper. In order to estimate these values, a 'travel cost' survey of duck hunters participating in an organised shoot held by Wetlands and Wildlife in February 2000 was undertaken. The extent of the private recreation benefits so estimated is assessed in terms of their potential to stimulate the provision of wetlands for both private and social benefits.