Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

城市陆面过程与边界层结构研究

通过城市边界层观测、卫星遥感以及城市边界层数值模拟等途径,获取对城市陆面过程特性的认识,研究建立精细城市边界层模式,引入合理城市区陆面过程参数化方案,并进行城市边界层结构影响研究。研究结果表明：①城市下垫面能量平衡过程迥异于自然地表,引入合理的参数化方案是改善数值模拟性能的关键。②高分辨卫星观测信息是认识城市地表参数状况及其变化的有效途径。 ③人为热排放参数化方案的合理引入是准确描述地表能量平衡过程的又一重要课题。需根据实际情况确定人为热排放的引入方案及量值变化。④应从合理描述城市建筑物下垫面对热力输送及大气动力场的影响出发,研究建立了多层城市冠层模式。⑤应建立更完善的多尺度城市边界层模式系统并引入更新的城市效应参数化方案和数据同化处理,以增强并完善城市边界层数值模拟能力。     

基于ENVI-met模式的城市近地表气温模拟与分析-以南京市部分区域为例

城市不同下垫面与建筑物空间形态对近地表气温等微气候要素产生了重要影响。开展城市气温时空变化模拟与影响因素分析,对于城市热环境评价与城市规划具有重要意义。论文基于高空间分辨率Geoeye-1立体影像,在建筑物高度、下垫面覆盖类型信息提取的基础上,选择南京一中、光华东街、玄武湖、头陀岭4个区域,采用ENVI-met微气候模式,以城市基本气象站南京站的实时气象数据作为背景气象场,模拟不同区域近地表气温的时空分布特征,并利用区域自动气象站观测数据进行精度检验。结果表明:在时间变化上,ENVI-met模拟气温与实测值之间吻合程度较高;在空间分布上,南京一中与光华东街区域气温时空分布规律总体相似,但城市空间形态的差异使得局部区域气温变化不同,玄武湖区域气温由陆地中心向外围呈递减趋势,而头陀岭地形复杂多变,白天气温变化剧烈,夜间空间变化较小。     

基于SLEUTH模型的城市空间增长模拟研究--以焦作市为例

利用1988,1992,2001,2008年4个时相的遥感影像和GIS技术获取历史数据,采用SLEUTH模型,对焦作市未来城市空间演变进行研究。结果显示：SLEUTH模型重现了焦作市1988~2008年城市空间演变形态,模拟结果与实际情况比较吻合,充分证明SLEUTH模型具有普适性,通过校正能较好地描述城市增长的自然规律;预测模拟了2009~2020年城市空间增长,城市扩展趋势是新扩展中心出现边缘式扩展,向周围地区蔓延,在交通轴线连接下,形成组团式布局。研究结果为研究区城市发展及政府制定规划提供了科学决策依据。     

Spatial expansion effects on urban ecosystem services supply-demand mismatching in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration of China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Global urbanization has led to drastic land use change, interfering the ecosystem services (ES) supply-demand balance, in turn threatening the well-being of...     

兰州城市建筑的空间分布

利用高精度卫星影象和大规模实地调查方法获取数据,采用GIS手段、景观生态学和数理统计等方法,利用建筑占地面积和建筑面积等指标分别研究了兰州市各区、功能区、各组团、各圈层现状建筑的空间分布与组合,以及城市资产、土地强度的空间变化规律。结果表明：住宅、工业、商务三类建筑是兰州市建筑的绝对核心类型,空间分布均衡而广泛,且工业建筑向外围迁移过程中存在全域分散化特征：兰州市各区建筑用途复杂程度、多样性和均匀性由中心到外围大致逐步降低,优势度逐渐增加,组团分布特征显著而强烈;建筑更新具有明显的全域化和快速推进特征;建筑用途空间组合、建筑容积率由中心到外围的空间波动性较为显著：建筑用途多样性、建筑容积率等指标高或低的“插花”分布现象相当显著;住宅、工业建筑更新与空间分化是城市建筑更新、建筑用途空间分化与组合及其变迁的核心动力因素,单位制模式的影响依旧强烈和深刻。     

基于国外城市群发展经验的哈大齐工业走廊的竞争策略

哈尔滨、大庆、齐齐哈尔三市在黑龙江省老工业基地中占有重要地位,建设哈大齐工业走廊是黑龙江省做出的一项重大决策,是充分利用本省优势,节约土地资源、改善生态环境、实现可持续发展的战略举措。大力发展哈大齐工业走廊城市群将对东北老工业基地的振兴起到重要作用。本文通过借鉴国外城市群发展的成功经验以及对哈大齐工业走廊发展中的症候的分析,提出了这一新兴城市群快速持续发展的竞争对策。     

Flows,system boundaries and the politics of urban metabolism: Waste management in Mexico City and Santiago de Chile

In this paper we examine two central concepts of urban metabolism (‘system boundaries’ and ‘flows’), and explore how to approach them as a means to politicise urban metabolism research. We present empirical findings from two case studies of waste management, in Mexico City and Santiago de Chile, looking at: the materiality of waste flows, the actors involved in them, and how waste flows relate to issues of environmental justice. We argue that urban metabolism, as a methodology to understand urban sustainability, has the potential to produce knowledge to trigger urban transformations, and to analyse the social, political and environmental aspects of waste management in urban areas.     

Farming the urban fringes of Barcelona: Competing visions of nature and the contestation of a partial sustainability fix

While the concept of urban agriculture investigates the way in which disused land within the consolidated city is returned to its citizens through a variety of farming practices, many pockets of rural land in peri-urban areas continue to be contested by institutions and communities – including informal farmers, formal farmers, municipal planners, metropolitan agencies, and investors – with contrasting interests. To date however, little scholarly attention has been paid to informal practices within the degraded areas of urban fringes and, more specifically, to the link between the expansion of peri-urban agriculture and the civic appropriation and negotiation of space in neglected peripheral areas. In this paper, we ask how a metropolitan sustainability fix is produced and contested both materially and discursively. We also explore how local residents involved in peri-urban agriculture claim the use of land for agricultural practices and in turn attempt to influence the urban agenda of the neoliberal city. Inquiring how competing visions of nature act as obstacles in this negotiation process, our analysis of the peri-urban Baix Llobregat Agricultural Park in Barcelona reveals that the imposition of official visions about how needs for food and agriculture should be fulfilled, which landscapes are esthetically acceptable, what nature is, and how land should be controlled and developed indicate why apparently “marginal” and informal urban agriculture in the periphery has come to be subordinated to the planning of the neoliberal city and of a metropolitan sustainability fix – a partial sustainability fix that is however progressively being questioned and renegotiated.     

Urban locations and Black Metropolis resilience in the Great Depression

Motivated by theoretical arguments about ethnicity and economics and by historical research on urban black communities in the United States, this paper investigates the resilience of the early twentieth-century Black Metropolis. The study tests hypotheses about changes during the Great Depression (1930–1940) in the advantages of various cities as locations of black communities’ ethnic economies, analyzing Census data on blacks’ representation in occupations reflecting the Black Metropolis’s professional, entrepreneurial, and cultural media pursuits. There is mixed support for the hypothesis that the nationally dominant urban centers of New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia had the most resilient Black Metropolises, a finding that casts doubt on claims that black communities in such key places enjoyed exceptionally favorable locational advantages. Yet, the results support the hypothesis that northern cities were, overall, more resilient locations than southern cities, particularly for black professionals and entrepreneurs, affirming the argument that the urban North’s Black Metropolises were vital economic opportunity centers for these black communities’ upper- and middle-classes.