Change of Support for Estimating Local Block Grade Distributions

An important aspect in mineral resource evaluation is the reduction of variance when post-processing the grade distributions defined on the support (volume) of the available data into distributions defined on the support of the proposed selective mining units. Although the volume-variance relationship is well understood for the estimation of global grade distributions, it is still an unsolved issue for local estimation studies based on non-parametric geostatistical methods, such as indicator kriging, for which the support correction is not inherent to the method. To clarify this relationship, the local change of support problem is examined in the scope of two parametric models (multi-Gaussian and discrete Gaussian models). It is shown that the variance reduction factor between point and block-support local distributions depends on the block being considered and is less than the global variance reduction factor. As a consequence, post-processing the local point-support grade distributions on the basis of the latter systematically understates the importance of the change of support at the local scale and makes selective mining appear more economically attractive than it really is. In the light of these results, a methodology is proposed to post-process the local point-support distributions obtained via non-parametric (indicator) methods into block-support distributions. An application to simulated data indicates that this methodology provides an accurate estimation at the block support when dealing with diffusion-type random fields.     

研究“源兆”的若干问题及途径分析

从位场理论的观点讨论了场和源的概念,建议将“场兆”改称为构造前兆,将“源兆”称为震源前兆。文中还分析了震源体与各种前兆观测方法探测的深度,并根据地磁与重力观测方法不同的物理基础和地质基础,指出震磁效应对于研究震源前兆的特殊意义,文中还介绍了１９７６唐山地震观测到震源前兆的部分实际地磁资料。     

关于海平面上升及其环境效应

沿海地区地质环境复杂。由于国民经济的迅速发展,人类活动日益增多,对地质环境进一步造成严重的不利影响。特别是“温室效应”引发的海平面上升,使各种地质灾害更加激化。文章详细探讨了海平面上升的影响因素,理论海平面与相对海平面升降幅度的评估,以及海平面上升所造成的地质环境效应与相应的防治对策,特别强调控制沿海城市地面沉降,以减轻海平面相对上升造成的危害,具有特殊而重要的意义。     

SOME NEW UNDERSTANDINGS OF LAND-SURFACE PROCESSES IN ARID AREA FROM THE HEIFE*

The survey for the HEIFE(Atmosphere-Land Surface Processes Experiment at Heihe River Basin,Western China) is given in the paper.The following basic subjects for land-surface processes in arid areas are studied:(1) the general characteristics of the energy budget on ground surface in arid areas;(2) the parameterization of the land surface processes;(3) the interaction between oasis and its desert circumstances,a special phenomenon in arid areas.The analysis shows that the sensible heat flux in the surface energy budget is in the majority,and the latent heat flux may be neglected.The influence of atmospheric stratification stability on the turbulent transfer of energy and substance must be considered in parameterization of land surface processes in arid areas.The "cold island effect" phenomenon in oasis and the "humidity inversion" phenomenon in desert near oasis are the result of the interaction between them.The results would improve the understanding of land surface processes in arid areas.     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.     

Surface renewal analysis for sensible and latent heat flux density

High frequency temperature measurements were recorded at five heights and surface renewal (SR) analysis was used to estimate sensible heat flux density (H) over 0.1 m tall grass. Traces of the temperature data showed ramp-like structures, and the mean amplitude and duration of these ramps were used to calculate H using structure functions. Data were compared with H values measured with a sonic anemometer. Latent heat flux density (E) was calculated using an energy balance and the results were compared with E computed from the sonic anemometer data. SR analysis provided good estimates of H for data recorded at all heights but the canopy top and at the highest measurement level, which was above the fully adjusted boundary layer.     

试论我国城市发展方针

在执行重重工业的发展战略和城乡分割体制的计划经济背景下,我国制定了“控制大城市规模,合理发展中等城市,积极发展小城市”的城市建设方针。但是分析表明,这一方针不能适应市场经济和对外开放形势的需要,也不符合我国人多地少、农村剩余劳动力多的国情,必须调整现有的城市发展方针,选择适宜的城市化发展道路。因此,本文就适度发展大中城市,提高城市现代化水平;加速乡村城市化,积极合理发展小城镇;以及根据不同地区的具体情况,因地制宜地指定城市化途径等方面作了探讨。     

不均匀植被分布对地表面和大气边界层影响的数值试验

研究陆地与大气间相互作用的方法之一是建立联系地表面层与大气间各种过程的数值模式进行模拟。本文是建立一个陆面过程与二维大气边界层相耦合的模式,耦合模式中包含了发生在大气边界层、植被冠层和土壤表层各种动力、热力和水文过程。运用这一模式模拟了荒漠环境中一片绿洲的不均匀地表面形成的局地气候。由于绿洲植被与周围荒漠有着显著不同的水份与能量平衡关系,使绿洲表面与边界层较四周荒漠冷而湿,并形成了相应的局地环流,即所谓“绿洲效应”。试验结果表明,模拟的气候状况与观测现象是一致的。模式可以用于陆气相互作用的研究。     

Formation of the mid-fifteenth century Kuwae caldera (Vanuatu) by an initial hydroclastic and subsequent ignimbritic eruption

In the mid-fifteenth century, one of the largest eruptions of the last 10 000 years occurred in the Central New Hebrides arc, forming the Kuwae caldera (12x6 km). This eruption followed a late maar phase in the pre-caldera edifice, responsible for a series of alternating hydromagmatic deposits and airfall lapilli layers. Tuffs related to caldera formation ( 120 m of deposits on a composite section from the caldera wall) were emitted during two main ignimbritic phases associated with two additional hydromagmatic episodes. The lower hydromagmatic tuffs from the precaldera maar phase are mainly basaltic andesite in composition, but clasts show compositions ranging from 48 to 60% SiO₂. The unwelded and welded ashflow deposits from the ignimbritic phases and the associated intermediate and upper hydromagmatic deposits also show a wide compositional range (60–73% SiO₂), but are dominantly dacitic. This broad compositional range is thought to be due to crystal fractionation. The striking evolution from one eruptive style (hydromagmatic) to the other (magmatic with emission of a large volume of ignimbrites) which occurred either over the tuff series as a whole, or at the beginning of each ignimbritic phase, is the most impressive characteristic of the caldera-forming event. This strongly suggests triggering of the main eruptive phases by magma-water interaction. A three-step model of caldera formation is presented: (1) moderate hydromagmatic (sequences HD 1–4) and magmatic (fallout deposits) activity from a central vent, probably over a period of months or years, affected an area slightly wider than the present caldera. At the end of this stage, intense seismic activity and extrusion of differentiated magma outside the caldera area occurred; (2) unhomogenized dacite was released during a hydromagmatic episode (HD 5). This was immediately followed by two major pyroclastic flows (PFD 1 and 2). The vents spread and intense magma-water interaction at the beginning of this stage decreased rapidly as magma discharge increased. Subsequent collapse of the caldera probably commenced in the southeastern sector of the caldera; (3) dacitic welded tuffs were emplaced during a second main phase (WFD 1–5). At the beginning of this phase, magma-water interaction continued, producing typical hydromagmatic deposits (HD 6). Caldera collapse extended to the northern part of the caldera. Previous C¹⁴ dates and records of explosive volcanism in ice from the south Pole show that the climactic phase of this event occurred in 1452 A.D.     

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。