几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

Exploring the attractions of city centre living: evidence and policy implications in British cities

The British city centre has been the focus of dynamic housing development and repopulation strategies as a key dimension of the government's urban renaissance programme. Through large scale interview surveys in the provincial city centres of Bristol and Swansea, this paper explores the positive and negative features of city centre living, and how these vary amongst a range of social and physical characteristics. The findings suggest that the practical and mundane attractions of city centre living are more important than the more widely publicised lifestyle and cultural attractions of the city centre commonly emphasised in the gentrification literature. Moreover, the research points to differences in attitudes between age groups, with younger adults placing greater value on the range of social and cultural activities in the city centre, whilst older people express high levels of satisfaction with the attractiveness of the environment. A number of policy implications emerge to encourage inclusive marketing strategies within the continued urban renaissance, particularly to challenge the negative perceptions and promote the varied attractions of city centre living to a mix of social groups.     

RIVER SYSTEM AND DISTURBANCE FACTORS IN THE LAKE TOBA

Situated at an elevation of 905 m above sea level in the Province of North Sumatra, Lake Toba and its surrounding landscapes are regarded as a natural heritage in a certain extent, as a quoted national treasure. Unfortunately degradation of the land and water resources in the watershed along Lake Toba is taking place at an alarming and totally unacceptable rate. The quality of the lake is partly depended on input the quality of the rivers. When compared to the control area the water quality that influenced by the piggeries are highly polluted. It can be concluded that the Salbe River at the downstream of the piggeries has been polluted and apparently it is a serious problem to the catchment area management. It should be noted that the polluted river would influence the water quality of the Lake Toba. Based on calculation, the permissible BOD5 according to B- river standard is 238 mg/L, it means the river still in B standard but the condition and quality are decreasing continuously. Following the Indonesian health standard the permissible BOD is - 461 mg/L. It means BOD in the river should be reduced 461 mg/L or clean program is needed.     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

A large landslide on the urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona

A granitic rock avalanche, one of the largest Quaternary landslides in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon with a volume of approximately 5.25 M m³ and a width a little under 0.5 km, ran 1 km from the eastern McDowell Mountains. With lateral levees and pressure ridges, the rock avalanche deposit displays many features found on classic sturzstroms. Failure occurred along a major joint plane paralleling the slope with a dip of 44°, when a major base level lowering event in the Salt River system would have undermined the base of the failed slope, and probably during a period of more moisture than normally available in the present-day arid climate. Failure at the subsurface weathering front highlights the importance of the dramatic permeability change between grussified regolith and relatively fresh bedrock. Rock varnish microlaminations (VMLs) dating, in concert with other geomorphic evidence, suggests that the rock avalanche deposit is slightly older than 500 ka. The rock vanish results also have important implications for sampling strategies designed to use cosmogenic nuclide to date Quaternary landslide deposits. Discovery of a large landslide in close proximity to the extending urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix argues for a more careful analysis of landslide hazards in the region, especially where rapid development excavates bedrock at the base of steep mountain slopes and where the subsurface weathering front is near the surface.     

兰州市气象与污染环境背景综述

利用 196 0～ 2 0 0 0年气候统计资料和 1975～ 2 0 0 0年环境监测资料 ,从地理位置、大、小尺度气候背景、兰州市区污染源概况及主要污染物的时空分布等方面 ,分析该市的气候与污染环境背景 ,为兰州市空气质量预报方法和模式的建立提供依据     

环北京地区空气污染指数与降水的周循环特征及其影响机制分析

部分气象要素在某些地区表现出明显的周循环特征,其位相和尺度因时因地而异.利用1980～2009年环北京地区地面常规观测气象要素资料、空气污染指数资料(简称API)及NCEP/DOE再分析资料,本文分析了环北京地区API、降水及多种气象要素的周变化特征,并对气溶胶影响降水的可能机制做了初步证明.分析表明:API表现出明显...     

绥中一次暴雪伴雷电天气过程的成因分析

为了探讨绥中一次暴雪伴雷电天气过程的成因,利用常规观测资料、NCEP每6h间隔的1°×1°的再分析资料和营口多普勒雷达的资料,分析此过程的天气形势特点、高低空急流的作用、雷达回波的特征及反映动力、热力和水汽条件的相关物理量场的特征。结果发现:雷电发生在对流层中层的西南风急流和底层偏东风均处在最强的时刻,当对流云团发展到-20℃温度层时,温差起电产生雷电;雷电发生在低层850hPa附近存在的逆温层消失之后,同时配合低层水汽的辐合,产生了暴雪天气;雷电和强降雪发生在大气底层南风和北风转换的过程中,强降雪的时间与冷空气扩散加强的时间比较一致,当冷空气扩散到整个大气底层时强降雪结束;引起雷电和强降雪的对流不稳定层结主要处在对流层中层,并为上升运动的发生提供了动力和热力条件,促使雷电发生和强降雪的维持。     

海南岛中低纬冷暖系统相互作用下的非台暴雨分析

通过对1993年～2002年共10年的天气资料分析发现,在海南,中纬度的冷空气与低纬度在南海上活动的低压之间的相互作用,是秋季产生非台暴雨的非常重要的环流形势;同时发现,低空急流的存在与暴雨的产生有密切联系。并且对2000年10月13日～15日的暴雨过程利用T106物理量场诊断分析,说明暴雨形成的原因。     

重庆城区浓雾的基本特征

统计分析沙坪坝1951～2002年间发生的浓雾事件，结合2001年12月重庆市雾的外场试验资料，探索重庆市主城区浓雾的基本特征。重庆主城区浓雾随年代演变有减缓趋势；主城区浓雾是自然雾与烟尘等的混合物，河谷及城市效应使雾更浓；城市中出现浓雾的大气边界层特征是在近地面层有逆温及增湿降温现象；高浓度气溶胶的净辐射效应阻碍白天混合层发展，使大气边界层趋于稳定，它是重庆连续几天有雾的原因之一；浓雾具有一定的湿沉降作用，能有限地清洁空气；有浓雾的天气条件下，建议降低污染物的排放总量，以避免严重大气污染事件发生。