不对称双连拱海底隧道施工引起的地层变形分析

在目前众多的预测隧道开挖引起的地层变形的方法中,经验公式法最为简便,也是目前应用最为广泛的方法,为此介绍了多种预测隧道开挖引起的地层沉降和水平位移的经验公式。并以青岛胶州湾海底隧道不对称双连拱断面为工程背景,由位于主隧道与匝道交叉口段的典型断面ZK2+800.78的几何参数和地质资料构建三维数值计算模型,采用岩土体工程通用有限差分软件FLAC3D进行动态施工三维数值模拟。通过对FLAC3D模拟和各经验公式计算的地层沉降和水平位移的对比分析,评价了FLAC3D软件和各经验公式在不对称双连拱隧道断面地层变形预测中的适用性。结果表明,当地层埋深较浅时,不同埋深地层的地层沉降和水平位移可近似用各经验公式来预测;但随着地层埋深的增大,各经验公式预测的偏差不断增大;经验公式只能对单一地层、单一隧道的地层变形进行估算,存在明显的局限性,而在预测复杂地质条件下不对称双连拱隧道断面开挖引起的地层变形时,FLAC3D较各经验公式有明显的优势     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

Assessing the feasibility of integrating remote sensing and in-situ measurements in monitoring water quality status of Lake Chivero,Zimbabwe

This work investigates the likelihood of integrating the cheap and readily-available broadband multispectral MODIS data and in-situ measurements in quantifying and monitoring water quality status of an inland lake within Upper Manyame Catchment in Zimbabwe. Specifically we used MODIS images to quantify inland lake chlorophyll_a concentrations, as a proxy for predicting lake pollution levels. The findings of this study show a high chlorophyll_a concentration of 0.101 ± 0.128 μg/L within the Lake. The results further demonstrated that the chlorophyll_a concentration levels did not significantly vary (p = 0.788) between sites, except among depths (p = 0.05). Further, prediction results based on the relationship between observed and predicted chlorophyll_a produced a high R² value of 0.89 and a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.003 μg/L. Moreover, the derived landuse maps of Upper Manyame Catchment indicated a significant variation in the percentage settlement in 1985, 1994 and 2010 change from 1985 to 2010. For instance, 8% increase in settlement in the period between 1994 and 2010 and over 12% increase from 1985 to 2010 and a decline in percent forest coverage (i.e. 9.8% in 1985 to 2.0% in the year 2010) in the catchment was observed. Overall, the findings of this study highlights the importance of free and readily-available satellite datasets (such as the multispectral MODIS and Landsat) in quantifying and monitoring water quality across inland lakes especially in data-scarce areas like Sub-Saharan Africa.     

南堡凹陷南部沙一段控砂模式

南堡凹陷盆地内部构造特征复杂,砂体时空分布差异较大。为了明确砂体分布规律,首先对南部缓坡带构造-沉积背景进行研究和岩心相观察,识别了沙一段辫状河三角洲前缘砂体;进而通过对南部缓坡带层序地层格架的建立、沉积学研究和地震地质解释,发现沙一段砂体同时受到顺源和逆源两种同沉积断裂坡折带类型控制。其中,顺源坡折带控制了断槽物源通道的走向,逆源坡折带改变了水流的流向,阻止了砂体的运移。据此,建立了南堡凹陷南部缓坡带沙一段同沉积断裂的控砂模式,得出沙一段砂体具有"沙垒田凸起供砂,断槽物源通道输砂,逆源坡折带阻砂和同沉积洼槽带聚砂"的发育特点。     

川中地区上三叠统须四段砂体成因及对油气运移影响分析

川中地区上三叠统须四段砂体沉积过程中,由于构造活动强弱的变化,导致物源供应速率与可容纳空间增长之间关系的变化,须四段厚层砂体自下而上由水退式、加积式和水进式3种不同成因类型的砂组纵向叠合而成.水退式砂组主要由高能削截式河道、削截式河口坝和远砂坝组成,加积式砂组主要包括冲蚀下切式河道和高能削截式河道,水进式砂组主要包括低能河道、低能削截式河道、完整式河口坝和下缺式河口坝.不同砂组中砂体类型不同,颗粒大小分异不同,水动力强弱的差异,不同成因砂体间形成了不同的成岩相和储集相,加积式砂组以绿泥石衬边和溶蚀成岩相为主,物性好,为好的储集体;水进式砂组由压实和胶结相为主,物性较差;水退式砂组中溶蚀相和胶结相发育,物性较好,为中等的储集体.须四段三种成因砂组中,加积式砂组中发育高能削截式河道,形成了在平面上广泛分布的高能水道,砂体厚度大,延伸长,发育有利的成岩相,物性较好,为油气的富集提供了足够的空间;同时加积式砂组与水退式砂组呈沉积不整合相接触,呈现相嵌关系,对天然气的运移起到通道作用,加积砂组向上的水进式砂组容易发生储层致密化,形成有利的盖层,使加积式砂组发育区成为川中天然气富集的有利部位.     

藏北羌塘盆地晚三叠世地层特征与对比

羌塘盆地上三叠统日干配错组、土门各拉组和肖茶卡组、那底岗日组分别分布于南、北羌塘凹陷。在以往研究和笔者在中国地质调查局青藏重点沉积盆地油气资源潜力分析项目工作基础上,通过对各地层单元的详细研究和区域对比,从古生物、岩石组合、沉积系列、地层单元的接触关系、年代地层进行了综合分析。结果显示北羌塘凹陷那底岗日组与南羌塘凹陷日干配错组和土门各拉组的时代主要为晚三叠世诺利期—瑞替期,三者为羌塘晚三叠世诺利期—瑞替期裂陷盆地形成过程中的同期异相的火山-沉积系列。北羌塘凹陷肖茶卡组的是残留陆表海沉积产物,其时代主要为晚三叠世卡尼期-诺利期早期,与那底岗日组、日干配错组和土门各拉组均为上下对比关系。     

记广东南雄盆地上白垩统主田组鸟脚类足迹及中国已命名的大型鸟脚类足迹的属级新观察

记述了广东省南雄盆地上白垩统主田组3组恐龙行迹,由杨梅坑足迹点的足迹命名了南雄鸭嘴龙足迹（Hadrosauropodus nanxiongensis ichnosp. nov.）一新种;古市足迹点的足迹归入鸭嘴龙足迹一未定种（Hadrosauropodus isp.）。这是中国鸭嘴龙足迹属的首次描述,将该足迹的分布从北美拓展至中国,并为南雄盆地存在大型的鸭嘴龙提供了新的化石证据。还整理了中国已描述的大型鸟脚类足迹：中国足迹（Sinoichnites）被定为非正式的塑模标本;扬子足印（Yangtzepus）被归入兽脚类足迹;禽龙足迹（Iguanodonopus）被认为是裸名,归入禽龙足迹（Iguanodontipus）;嘉荫足迹（Jiayinosauropus）增加了新材料并得以具体描述;内乡足迹（Neixiang footprint）得以重新描述。     

一例和平永川龙（恐龙：兽脚类）肩胛骨骨折

记述了自贡地区的和平永川龙（和平中华盗龙）（Yangchuanosaurus(Sinraptor)hepingensis）ZDM 0024存在一断裂后愈合的肩胛骨,这是中国兽脚类病理学的首次详细记录。该肩胛骨有骨皮质不连续、成角畸形、骨痂形成,符合骨折后愈合的表现,而且从其病理特征看,病理性骨折的可能性很小,直接暴力所致骨折的可能性极大。还分析了同时期动物群中可能存在暴力施加者,拥有尾锤的合川马门溪龙（Mamenchisaurus hochuanensis）可能性最大,这为和平永川龙的骨折提供了一种有趣的解释。     

High-resolution seismic tomography of the upper crust in the source region of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake and its seismotectonic implications

Both P- and S-wave arrivals were collected for imaging upper crustal structures in the source region of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake. High-resolution, three- dimensional P and S velocity models were constructed by travel-time tomography. Moreover, more than 3700 after- shocks of the Lushan earthquake were relocated via a grid search method. The P- and S-wave velocity images of the upper crust show largely similar characters, with high and low velocity anomalies, which mark the presence of sig- nificant lateral and vertical heterogeneity at the source region of the Lushan earthquake. The characteristics of the velocity anomalies also reflect the associated surface geo- logical tectonics in this region. The distributions of high velocity anomalies of both P- and S-waves to 18 km depth are consistent with the distributions of relocated after- shocks, suggesting that most of the ruptures were localized inside the high velocity region. In contrast, low P and S velocities were found in the surrounding regions without aftershocks, especially in the region to the northeast of the Lushan earthquake. For the relocated aftershocks of the Lushan earthquake from this study, we found that mostaftershocks were concentrated in a zone of about 40 km long and 20 km wide, and were located in the hanging wall of Dayi-Mingshan fault. The focal depths of aftershocks increase from the southeast to the northwest region in the direction perpendicular to the fault strike, suggesting that the fault ruptured at an approximate dip angle of 45°. The main depths of the aftershocks in the northwest of the main shock are significantly shallower than expected, revealing the different seismogenic conditions in the source region.     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.