物联网技术在地震受困人员应急搜救中的应用研究

为能在搜救地震受困人员时,实时监测灾区情况,增强实时性及降低搜救误差,研究物联网技术在地震受困人员应急搜救中的应用,设计基于物联网的地震应急搜救系统,采用RFID识读器将采集的数据通过互联网传输至数据处理中心服务器上,再反馈至灾区信息处理子系统中的监测防御模块中,若出现异常情况则开启射频模块,命令现场报警装置响应报警应急搜救信号;通过蚁群算法获取最优搜救路线,及时搜救地震受困人员。实验结果表明,设计系统可有效搜救地震受困人员,且系统的吞吐率高达90%,搜救准确率均值高达97.6%,耗时均值仅为0.88 h,具有较高的搜救准确率和搜救效率。     

Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.     

山东及邻区地震重新定位及其与活动构造的关系

Earthquakes taking place from 1975 to 2010 in and around Shandong Province are relocated using double-difference （HypoDD） and Hypoinvers 2000 （Hypo2000） methods, after correction of the onset times of seismic phases. The results show that the relocated seismicity is clearly associated with regional tectonics in space, and is also in agreement with the existence of deep faults imaged by wide-angle and deep seismic reflection profiling ; most of the focal depths are in the range of 5 - 25km, and there are clearly two predominant depths： 10km and 16km, which are inferred to be on the bottom of the upper crust and in the middle crust, respectively. The pattern of seismic activity indicates that moderate and strong earthquakes are likely to occur in the brittle-ductile transition zone between the upper and the lower crust, as the outcome of the deep tectonic dynamic process and the movement and deformation of faults in the upper and shallow crust under the regional stress field.     

A semi‐distributed parallel‐type linear reservoir rainfall‐runoff model and its application in Taiwan

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a semi‐distributed parallel surface rainfall‐runoff conceptual model. In this paper, a general solution of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) has been derived successfully for N linearly connected reservoirs, each having a different storage constant. The solution is a function of geomorphologic parameters, meteorologic factors and roughness coefficients. The model also takes into account the hydrologic response which is influenced by outflow downstream of a reservoir. For calibration, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm is used to search for the global optimal parameters of the model. Because of the parallel structure, the mean roughness parameter of the channel becomes a “conceptual” parameter without a real physical meaning. To evaluate the adaptability of the model adopted, three watersheds around the city of Taipei in Taiwan were chosen to test the effectiveness of the model. The study provides an appropriate rainfall‐runoff model for planning flood mitigation in Taiwan. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多普勒天气雷达中气旋产品在强风预报中的应用

在深入了解WSR-88D多普勒天气雷达产品——中气旋算法的基础上,对上海地区近6年间中气旋产品的几个重要特征参数进行了统计研究,并结合局地强风的个例分析,总结了上海及周边地区中气旋发生发展过程中各阶段的基本特征。最后综合参考雷达其他相关产品,提出利用中气旋产品进行强风预报的思路,以期为准确预报局地强风天气提供一些参考信息。     

GPS水汽遥感中的大气加权平均温度的变化特征及局地算式研究

根据广东清远1996～2001的气象探空资料,计算了大气加权平均温度,在此资料基础上,利用最优子集回归建立了GPS水汽遥感中的大气加权平均温度局地算式,该算式的精度优于目前广泛使用的Bevis算式。     

基于遗传支持向量机的地下工程裂隙岩体注浆量预测

提出了地下工程裂隙岩体注浆量预测的遗传支持向量机方法,通过支持向量机对实际注浆数据样本进行学习,建立注浆量及其影响因素之间的非线性映射关系,基于这种关系实现注浆量的预测。模型建立过程中,考虑到支持向量机惩罚因子和核参数对预测精度的影响,以预测误差为适应度,采用遗传算法对最佳参数进行搜索。结果表明,本文方法计算快速,预测精度高,是一种注浆量预测的好方法。     

结点虚流量法理论基础阐释及改进算法

含自由面的无压渗流问题本质上是一类非线性自由边值问题,固定网格的结点虚流量法在全域范围内不断扣除虚域流量贡献,从而使该问题得到求解。它具有网格依赖性小、出逸点收敛快等优点,但其内在理论基础尚未被完全揭示。通过引入互补型约束条件建立了结点虚流量法和Signorini型变分不等式提法的等价性桥梁,在此基础上引入过渡区放大系数 对自由面判别准则进行优化,并以砂槽模型试验为例进行验证。对比结果表明,优化后算法数值稳定性更好,计算结果与试验数据吻合度更高。研究成果为超大规模网格的渗控结构优化设计提供了有效分析手段。     

基于岩石物理模型的页岩储层裂缝属性及各向异性参数反演

针对富有机质页岩储层复杂的矿物组分与微观孔缝结构,本文提出基于岩石物理模型和改进粒子群算法的页岩储层裂缝属性及各向异性参数反演方法。应用自相容等效介质理论与Chapman多尺度孔隙理论建立裂缝型页岩双孔隙系统岩石物理模型。开发基于岩石物理模型的反演流程,引入模拟退火优化粒子群算法解决多参数同时反演问题,反演算法能够避免陷入局部极值且收敛速度快。将本文方法应用于四川盆地龙马溪组页岩气储层,反演得到的孔隙纵横比、裂缝密度等物性参数和各向异性参数与已有研究结果一致,能为页岩储层的评价提供多元化信息。