Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.     

Normalized algorithm for mapping and dating forest disturbances and regrowth for the United States

Forest disturbances such as harvesting, wildfire and insect infestation are critical ecosystem processes affecting the carbon cycle. Because carbon dynamics are related to time since disturbance, forest stand age that can be used as a surrogate for major clear-cut/fire disturbance information has recently been recognized as an important input to forest carbon cycle models for improving prediction accuracy. In this study, forest disturbances in the USA for the period of ∼1990–2000 were mapped using 400+ pairs of re-sampled Landsat TM/ETM scenes in 500m resolution, which were provided by the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System project. The detected disturbances were then separated into two five-year age groups, facilitated by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which was used to calculate the area of forest regeneration for each county in the USA.     

Long-term hydrological,biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed,East Tennessee,USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/ ). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.     

美、英国家研究计划揭示国际地球科学研究新动向

近日,在美国最新国家研究计划“大数据计划”框架下,包括美国国家科学基金会、美国地质调查局和美国国家航空航天局在内的美国政府主要机构同时推出新的研究项目,并对现有研究部署做出相应调整,此举将带动包括地球科学在内的各领域研究的新发展;与此同时,英国地质调查局也公布了其地球科学新领域的最新研究进展.通过解读这些最新的研究计划,可以揭示出国际地球科学研究的新动向.     

The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC

To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO₂, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to ?2.4?Gt, ?0.7?Gt and ?0.2?Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100.

Key policy insights

• President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.

• To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas.

• Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

     

沉积学研究热点与进展:第19届国际沉积学大会综述

基于第19届国际沉积学大会资料,分析了当前国际沉积学研究热点和研究进展,指出除了资源沉积学研究持续走热外,全球气候变化沉积记录、深水沉积与事件沉积和碳酸盐与微生物沉积成为当前沉积学3大热门研究领域。全球气候沉积记录领域的进展表现在气候的沉积记录载体研究,特殊地质时期或地域气候效应及早期气候宏观变化规律研究;深水沉积与事件沉积领域的进展包括水力跳跃、深水实地监测等重力流沉积过程研究,地震、海啸、洪水、火山等事件沉积学及重力流沉积预测及油气勘探;碳酸盐与微生物沉积领域的进展包含冷水碳酸盐沉积和微生物对碳酸盐沉积的控制。对比表明,中国沉积学研究在环境上关注河湖等陆相多,风成、冰川和海岸等研究较薄弱;性质上以资源沉积学等应用研究为主导,沉积动力过程等基础研究薄弱;热点领域上对深水沉积和非常规油气领域关注多,但多局限于沉积现象描述与油气勘探开发实践。笔者指出,注重碎屑物沉积动力过程和源—渠—汇系统分析,及时引进深水和冷水碳酸盐沉积理论、发展生物地质学,充分利用大量科探和油田钻孔资料开展全球气候研究,是近期中国沉积学突破的可能方向。     

第32届国际地质大会构造地质研究进展综述

第32届国际地质大会系统地反映了构造地质学近年来研究的最新成果。这些成果概括起来包括下列5个方面的内容。（1）构造变形与沉积作用：重点是不同构造体制,如伸展、挤压（包括斜压）体制下,各构造区域的构造+沉积关系,在利用层序地层等进行定量的构造反演方面,取得了重要进展;（2）挤压作用下的构造样式：这一传统构造地质学的研究内容仍然为构造地质学家所关注,如薄皮构造与厚皮构造在碰撞和非碰撞造山作用方面的表现样式;（3）山链内构造反转过程和构造的继承：描述经历了变形体制转换的区域运动学演化,是构造地质学研究的前缘课题;（4）大陆边缘前陆逆冲+褶皱的形成：特别强调盆地-山脉的藕合关系;（5）高应变带的研究及技术方法：包括制图、模型、实验方法和材料等。     

Quick-look assessments to identify optimal CO2 EOR storage sites

A newly developed, multistage quick-look methodology allows for the efficient screening of an unmanageably large number of reservoirs to generate a workable set of sites that closely match the requirements for optimal CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage. The objective of the study is to quickly identify miscible CO₂ EOR candidates in areas that contain thousands of reservoirs and to estimate additional oil recovery and sequestration capacities of selected top options through dimensionless modeling and reservoir characterization. Quick-look assessments indicate that the CO₂ EOR resource potential along the US Gulf Coast is 4.7 billion barrels, and CO₂ sequestration capacity is 2.6 billion metric tons. In the first stage, oil reservoirs are screened and ranked in terms of technical and practical feasibility for miscible CO₂ EOR. The second stage provides quick estimates of CO₂ EOR potential and sequestration capacities. In the third stage, a dimensionless group model is applied to a selected set of sites to improve the estimates of oil recovery and storage potential using appropriate inputs for rock and fluid properties, disregarding reservoir architecture and sweep design. The fourth stage validates and refines the results by simulating flow in a model that describes the internal architecture and fluid distribution in the reservoir. The stated approach both saves time and allows more resources to be applied to the best candidate sites.     

Linking pesticides and human health: A geographic information system (GIS) and Landsat remote sensing method to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure

Accurate pesticide exposure estimation is integral to epidemiologic studies elucidating the role of pesticides in human health. Humans can be exposed to pesticides via residential proximity to agricultural pesticide applications (drift). We present an improved geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing method, the Landsat method, to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure through matching pesticide applications to crops classified from temporally concurrent Landsat satellite remote sensing images in California. The image classification method utilizes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in a combined maximum likelihood classification and per-field (using segments) approach. Pesticide exposure is estimated according to pesticide-treated crop fields intersecting 500 m buffers around geocoded locations (e.g., residences) in a GIS. Study results demonstrate that the Landsat method can improve GIS-based pesticide exposure estimation by matching more pesticide applications to crops (especially temporary crops) classified using temporally concurrent Landsat images compared to the standard method that relies on infrequently updated land use survey (LUS) crop data. The Landsat method can be used in epidemiologic studies to reconstruct past individual-level exposure to specific pesticides according to where individuals are located.     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

AMOS—Analysis of MOment Structures . James Arbuckle CLIMATEDATA–Summary of the Day . (Version 1.10). HYDRODATA–U.S.G.S. Daily Values (Version 2.0). The MAP SETS (includes EUROPEAN MAPSET, US MAPSET and WORLD MAPSET). James Taylor