Numerical Study of the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Meiyu Precipitation over Eastern China

The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) has experienced significant urban expansion in recent years, while the Meiyu belt of China has demonstrated a decadal northward shifting trend. Thus, it is of interest to assess how urban expansion affects Meiyu precipitation and hopefully to reveal the underlying physical mechanisms involved. In this study, the urban extents over the YRD in 2001 and 2010 are derived based on land use/land cover(LULC) category data and nighttime light image data. Two parallel groups of10-summer(2001–2010) numerical simulations are carried out with the urban extents over the YRD in2001 and 2010, respectively. The results show that the urban expansion in the YRD tends to result in increased(decreased) Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin with intensities of0.2–1.2 mm day-1. Further analysis indicates that the spatiotemporal pattern of the Meiyu precipitation change induced by the urban expansion resembles the third empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode of the observed Meiyu precipitation. Analyses of the possible underlying physical mechanisms reveal that urban expansion in the YRD leads to changes in the surface energy balance and warming(cooling) of tropospheric(stratospheric) air temperature over eastern China. Anomalous upward(downward) motion and moisture convergence(divergence) over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin occur, corresponding to the increases(decreases) of the Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin.     

江淮梅雨长期变化对太阳活动因子的响应分析

利用美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)地球物理数据中心(NGDC)1954-2005年太阳黑子数资料,把太阳活动作为地球气候的外强迫因子,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究了太阳黑子数与江淮梅雨特征量及西太平洋副热带高压指数的关系。结果表明:太阳活动与江淮梅雨的相关性存在南北差异,北部呈现正相关而南部呈现负相关,且正负相关性在时间序列上保持不变;江淮南部梅雨量与太阳黑子数有稳定的11年共振周期及0.5~1年的相位滞后;西太平洋副热带高压指数与太阳黑子数也有较好的相关关系,说明太阳活动影响地球气候可能存在太阳活动—西太平洋副热带高压—江淮梅雨这样一条过程链。     

THE NORTH-SOUTH ANTI-PHASE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IN MEIYU PERIODS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH QUASI-BIWEEKLY OSCILLATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Based on the daily rainfall datasets from 740 stations in China from 1954 to 2005 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the relationship between the north-south anti-phase distribution(APD) of rainfall during Meiyu periods and the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation(QBWO) in the atmosphere was analyzed. Diagnostic results are as follows:(1) there was significant north-south oscillation of Meiyu rainfall during the 16 years from 1954 to 2005. Since the 1990 s, the APD enhanced significantly and showed 2- and 4-6-year period. In the region with more rainfall, the QBWO was always more active.(2) The APD of Meiyu and north-south movements of precipitation in eastern China belong to the same phase.(3) The 10-25 day filtered water vapor flux could spread to the area north of 30°N in 1991. The divergence of the water vapor flux which propagated from middle- and higher- latitudes to the of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins(YHRB) was significant in 1991, but the latitudes that the water vapor flux could reach were further southward and there was no southward propagation of divergence in 1993.(4) The locations of Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) and 10-25 day anti-cyclone, which modulated WPSH's advancement in and out of the South China Sea, were relatively northward in 1991. Furthermore, the vertical circulation showed north-south deviation between 1991 and 1993, just as other elements of the circulation did.     

Modes of Mesoscale Convective System Organization During Meiyu Season over the Yangtze River Basin

Mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are classified and investigated through a statistical analysis of composite radar reflectivity data and station observations during June and July 2010-2012. The number of linear-mode MCSs is slightly larger than the number of nonlinear-mode MCSs. Eight types of linear-mode MCSs are identified： trailing stratiform MCSs （TS）, leading stratiform MCSs （LS）, training line/adjoining stratiform MCSs （TL/AS）, back-building/quasi-stationary MCSs （BB）, parallel stratiform MCSs （PS）, bro- ken line MCSs （BL）, embedded line MCSs （EL）, and long line MCSs （LL）. Six of these types have been identified in previous studies, but EL and LL MCSs are described for the first time by this study. TS, LS, PS, and BL MCSs are all moving systems, while TL/AS, BB, EL, and LL MCSs are quasi-stationary. The average duration of linear-mode MCSs is more than 7 h. TL/AS and TS MCSs typically have the longest durations. Linear-mode MCSs often develop close to the Yangtze River, especially over low-lying areas and river valleys. The diurnal cycle of MCS initiation over the Yangtze River valley contains multiple peaks. The vertical distribution of environmental wind is decomposed into storm-relative perpendicular and parallel wind components. The environmental wind field is a key factor in determining the organizational mode of a linear-mode MCS.     

BCC_AGCM2.0.1模式系统对江淮梅雨期降水的模拟能力

文章通过累积频率方法定义江淮地区观测和模拟的梅雨期,分析国家气候中心大气模式BCC_AGCM2.0.1对我国东部地区暴雨、大雨、中雨和小雨四种等级降水的模拟能力。由于模式的模拟环流背景与实际不同,导致模拟的降水峰值时期与梅雨期有偏差,因此通过累积频率方法定义模拟的梅雨期,模拟梅雨期为6月1候至6月3候,而实际观测梅雨期6月5候至7月2候,模拟期较实际梅雨期提前了20天。模拟结果表明模拟的我国东部总降水量偏少,总雨日数偏多,主要是由于模拟的暴雨日数偏少,小雨日数偏多;观测的江淮地区近40年来暴雨、大雨和中雨呈上升趋势,小雨呈下降趋势,模式模拟的不同等级降水变化趋势与观测相反,暴雨、大雨和中雨呈下降趋势,小雨呈上升趋势。     

1998年5～6月区域大气角动量收支与东亚天气尺度系统变化

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算了1998年5～6月区域角动量收支的主要分量,对比分析了范围较大的欧亚区域角动量矩和限制在欧亚大陆范围内的喜马拉雅山角动量矩的差异,发现两者有很好的相关,限制较小范围的计算表明,喜马拉雅山山脉力矩的作用显著。角动量收支项占较大量级的山脉力矩和摩擦力矩,并与梅雨锋区域的700hPa高度...     

梅雨期一个伴有前导层状降水对流线的结构特征

采用美国ERSL实验室LAPS系统融合NCEP 1°×1°逐日再分析资料、业务观测和雷达资料,分析了2007年6月18日发生在湖北中部的一个伴有前导层状降水对流线发生、发展及消亡的结构特征。结果表明,该系统在雷达回波上主要分为两部分：后方回波强而窄的对流带和前方回波相对弱的宽层状降水区,在对流带和层状降水区之间有一条回...     

江淮梅雨季亚洲阻塞高压活动统计特征

利用1960—2018年6—7月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和同期中国国家气象站日降水量资料,对江淮梅雨季亚洲地区阻塞高压活动地理分布、关键区阻塞高压事件活动频次、生命周期以及年际和年代际变化,及其与江淮梅雨异常的关系进行了系统分析。结果表明:（1）近59年江淮梅雨季（6—7月）,亚洲阻塞高压事件共计363次,其中心主要分布在乌拉尔山区域（40°—80°E）、贝加尔湖区域（80°—120°E）和鄂霍次克海区域（120°—160°E）3个关键区。（2）3个关键区阻塞高压事件的次数和累计日数由高到低依次为:鄂霍次克海、乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域。双阻塞形势以乌拉尔山-鄂霍次克海双阻居多,约占亚洲地区双阻日数的60%。阻塞事件的平均生命周期7 d左右,最长维持时间为13 d。（3）3个关键区总的及分区的阻塞次数和日数都有明显的年际变化并呈增加的趋势,其中线性增加趋势最为明显的是鄂霍次克海区域,与近59年江淮梅雨季的累计雨量增加趋势一致。（4）江淮梅雨季降雨量多寡与阻塞高压活动密切相关,梅雨正（负）异常年鄂霍次克海区域、乌拉尔山-鄂霍次克海双阻日数和次数显著偏多（偏少）,而乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域的阻塞高压事件与梅雨关系并不显著。（5）江淮梅雨季鄂霍次克海阻塞高压的日数多寡可能与前期海表温度异常信号ENSO有关。      

淮河流域能量和水分循环研究进展

1998和1999年夏,中国与日本科学家合作在安徽省淮河流域进行了第一次大规模的能量与水循环试验（WCRP/GEWEX/GAME/HUBEX）,其重点是研究东亚梅雨锋系的多尺度,多系统结构、特征、生命史、发生发展机理及其引起洪涝灾害的原因。这是第一次中日合作的气象与水文联合观测试验,在此加强观测的基础上,双方进一步进行了长达5年的资料整理分析和科学研究工作,整个淮河流域能量与水循环试验与研究取得了全面和丰硕的成果。文中介绍了该计划所取得的主要成果,并以现在科学进展的视野重新评估这些成果的科学意义和不足,为进一步开展新的淮河与长江中下游梅雨科学联合试验提供经验和新的研究目标。      

淮河流域能量和水分循环观测系统及作用

淮河流域是中国南北气候重要的过渡带,气象灾害频繁发生。这里水网、农田、丘陵、山地、城镇密布,地-气作用复杂,干冷与暖湿空气时常交汇于此,造成局地或流域旱涝经常发生。淮河流域处于梅雨区,且是中国重要的农业生产基地,具有气象和水文综合观测系统,积累了长序列的气象和水文观测资料。因此,淮河流域是研究能量和水分循环的理想试验区。国家自然科学基金重大项目“淮河流域能量与水分循环试验和研究（HUaihe river Basin Experiment,简称HUBEX）”于1998、1999年夏在淮河流域开展了气象和水文联合观测试验。文中回顾了HUBEX试验的目的、观测网设计与布局,介绍了HUBEX推动下的淮河流域综合观测网的发展,总结了HUBEX观测试验对区域气候事件和暴雨等灾害性天气机理研究、提高模式模拟和预报能力及建立长期连续的气象观测数据集等方面的成果和作用。