Typhoon disaster in China: prediction,prevention, and mitigation

Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making.     

Numerical simulation of typhoon surges along the coast of Taiwan

A numerical model has been designed to study the storm surge induced by typhoon along the coast of Taiwan. The governing equations have been expressed in spherical coordinate system, and a finite difference method has been used to solve them. In the system of hydrodynamical equations, the nonlinear advection and lateral eddy viscosity terms are prominent in shallow coastal waters. Air pressure gradient and wind stresses are the driving forces in the model of typhoon surge. The model has been verified with storm surges induced by Typhoons Herb in 1996, and by typhoons Kai-Tak and Bilis in 2000.     

Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model

Rainwater infiltration during typhoons tends to trigger slope instability. This paper presents the results of a study on slope response to rainwater infiltration during heavy rainfall in a mountain area of Taiwan. The Green-Ampt infiltration model is adopted here to study the behavior of rainwater infiltration on slopes. The failure mechanism of infinite slope is chosen to represent the rainfall-induced shallow slope failure. By combining rain infiltration model and infinite slope analysis, the proposed model can estimate the occurrence time of a slope failure. In general, if a slope failure is to happen on a slope covered with low permeability soil, failure tends to happen after the occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensity. In contrast, slope failure tends to occur prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall intensity if a slope is covered with high-permeability soil. To predict the potential and timing of a landslide, a method is proposed here based on the normalized rainfall intensity (NRI) and normalized accumulated rainfall (NAR). If the actual NAR is higher than the NAR calculated by the proposed method, slope failure is very likely to happen. Otherwise, the slope is unlikely to fail. The applicability of the proposed model to occurrence time and the NAR–NRI relationship is evaluated using landslide cases obtained from the literature. The results of the proposed method are close to that of the selected cases. It verifies the applicability of the proposed method to slopes in different areas of the world. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Finescale Spiral Rainbands Modeled in a High-Resolution Simulation of Typhoon Rananim （2004）

Finescale spiral rainbands associated with Typhoon Rananim(2004)with the band length ranging from 10 to nearly 100 km and band width varying from 5 to 15 km are simulated using the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5).The finescale rainbands have two types:one intersecting the eyewall and causing damaging wind streaks,and the other distributed azimuthally along the inner edge of the eyewall with a relatively short lifetime.The formation of the high-velocity wind streaks results from the interaction of the azimuthal flow with the banded vertical vorticity structure triggered by tilting of the horizontal vorticity.The vertical advection of azimuthal momentum also leads to acceleration of tangential flow at a relatively high altitude.The evolution and structures of the bands are also examined in this study. Further investigation suggests that the boundary inflection points are related tightly to the development of the finescale rainbands,consistent with previous findings using simple symmetric models.In particular,the presence of the level of inflow reversal in the boundary layer is a crucial factor controlling the formation of these bands.The near-surface wavy peaks of vertical vorticity always follow the inflection points in radial flow.The mesoscale vortices and associated convective updrafts in the eyewall are considered to strengthen the activity of finescale bands,and the updrafts can trigger the formation of the bands as they reside in the environment with inflow reversal in the boundary layer.     

登陆台风Rananim(0414)环流内中尺度辐合线的形成和发展研究

0414号台风Rananim不仅在中国沿海引起暴雨灾害,还在中国内陆产生了强烈降水,导致严重的洪水和地质灾害。基于地面、探空和卫星观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°分析资料以及日本气象厅区域谱模式同化资料(20 km×20 km格距),对台风Rananim内陆强降水过程中环流内中尺度辐合线的形成和发展进行研究,结果表明:(1)中纬度冷空气自对流层中低层侵入台风环流,与台风偏东风暖湿气流相遇,激发了中尺度辐合线在其西北象限的生成。(2)这条中尺度辐合线存在于700 hPa以下低层,具有指向冷空气的斜升气流,并形成辐合线上的垂直环流圈。β-中尺度对流云团群在中尺度辐合线附近形成发展,最后并入台风残涡云团,生消过程约12 h。(3)中尺度辐合线上对流不稳定和条件性对称不稳定共同存在,为强对流运动提供有利环境。湿斜压性增强是中尺度辐合线斜升气流上条件性对称不稳定产生的主要原因。(4)中尺度辐合线与台风环流相互作用的诊断表明,中尺度辐合线从台风低层获得动能和垂直涡度而发展,而其发展又为台风环流提供动能和高层正涡度,减缓了台风衰减。中尺度辐合线不仅直接产生暴雨对流云团,还有利于热带气旋的维持,造成内陆持续强降水。     

DOPPLER RADAR ECHO CHARACTERISTICS FOR COLD AIR INTRUDING INTO TYPHOON CHANCHU

With Doppler radar data from Shantou and Xiamen and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the characteristics of a short-term heavy rainstorm on 17 May 2006 caused by Typhoon Chanchu are studied. Doppler radar data indicates that during the period from 1800 to 1900 May 17, the azimuthal phases of the positive and negative radial wind maximums are asymmetric around the core radius of the typhoon, i.e., the radial wind on the left side of the track is anomalously larger than that on the right side. Studies show that this is induced by the intrusion of cold air (northeasterly wind), which is primarily located at the mid-lower layers, lower than 4 km; this is due to the intruding cold air that forces the atmosphere to uplift, enhancing the release of instability energy, which triggers the heavy precipitation. During the late stage of the cold air activity, the typhoon is rapidly weakened. Consistent with the radar-observed intrusion of cold air, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of wind data also shows that there are obvious large scalar wind values at the mid-lower layers (approximately 1–3 km) to the left of the typhoon center (1800 May 17), and in all regions—except those affected by the intruding cold air—the wind speeds on the right side of the track remain larger than those on the left side. Furthermore, the Rankine model results confirm that northeasterly cold air is introduced to the typhoon at the mid-lower layers to the left of the track. Calculations also point out that there exists a frontal zone with high θse that tilts from southeast to northwest with height and the super heavy rainstorm occurring in the south of Fujian province lies just near the frontal zone.     

“碧利斯”引发强降水过程的湿位涡诊断分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,计算了2006年第4号强热带风暴“碧利斯”过境引发强降水过程的湿位涡（MPV）和假相当位温（θse）,分析了其湿位涡中尺度时空分布特矸,探讨了湿位涡发展、减弱与暴雨增幅、减弱的相关性,并结合假相当位温分布对此次强降水发生发展机制进行了分析。结果表明,850 hPa层湿位涡负值中心与强降水区域均有较好的对应关系,强的降水区域在850 hPa层位于湿位涡负中心的暖湿气流一侧,与负中心相距1个纬距左右,MPV负值中心大小可反映降水强度;在低纬地区,MPV的湿正压项MPV1负值区、MPV的湿斜压项MPV2正值中心北部以及θse等值面陡然向地面转折处是预报强降水中心落区的一个判据;MPV1负值增长期,MPV2由负值向正值过渡期,对应降水增幅期;     

台风“风神”路径、强度及引发江西降水诊断分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、T213分析资料和常规观测资料,从水汽条件、热力条件、动力条件等方面,对2008年第6号台风“风神”路径、强度变化的原因,及其对江西的影响进行分析。结果表明,台风路径与副高的强度和位置变化密切相关,台风移动方向与风场结构中强风速的风向一致。台风在海上强度减弱主要与水汽来源不足有关,登陆后还与冷空气侵入暖中心有关。由于强度减弱且西南季风不强,造成水汽来源不足,从而导致“风神”没有给江西造成大范围暴雨天气。其中的局地强降水天气发生在台风环流高能梯度锋区,这主要是由于干侵入引发对流性不稳定造成的。     

一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报系统的建立与应用

依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统.台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件.大量的数值模拟结果表明,该模式能较好地重现历史台风风暴增水过程,对近2年台风风暴潮个例的预报结果表明,该业务系统对台风风暴增水具有较好的预报能力,文章同时分析了模式存在的一些问题.该业务系统实现了从资料采集、模式运行到预报结果输出的全自动化,显示采用图片和MICAPS两种方式,后者与现有气象业务平台一致.