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101.
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An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This study proposes a novel method that combines a deterministic slope stability model and a statistical model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. The method first uses the deterministic model to derive the rainfall rate critical to induce slope failure for each land unit. Then it calculates the difference between the critical rainfall threshold and estimated rainfall intensity. Using the difference and estimated rainfall duration as explanatory variables, the method derives a logit (integrated) model to compute landslide occurrence probabilities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the study used radar rainfall estimates and landslides associated with a typhoon (tropical cyclone) to develop the integrated model and the same types of data associated with another typhoon to validate the model. The model had a modified success rate of 84.0% for predicting landslides and stable areas, and model validation yielded a modified success rate of 87.4%. Both rates were better than those from the critical rainfall model. The main advantage of the integrated model lies in its use of rainfall variables that are not included in calculating the critical rainfall. Also, as a probabilistic model, the integrated model is better suited for decision-making in watershed management. This study has advanced the method for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides. 相似文献
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雷小途 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2001,7(1):53-62
To have a clearer picture of mechanisms responsible for the deviation of tropical cyclone (to be
simplified as TC hereafter) tracks, the current work assumes the TC as a circular vortex with a radius of R. A
general motion equation of TC is then determined by averaging its horizontal motion equation over the sentire
region of TC. In the meantime, with the moving track of TC assumed as a characteristic arc, the curvature equation
is derived for the track of movement and patterns of its deviation due to TC structure and variation are
discussed. The result shows that the scale, size, maximum wind speed and radius are factors causing the deviation
of TC tracks. In addition, asymmetric structure of TC is also important for the deviation of tracks. The results,
achieved with hypothesis, agree with facts in some cases but disagree with them in others, which are to be
verified with more observations or numerical simulations. 相似文献
105.
台风移动路径数值预报的影响因子初探 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文对一个区域中α尺度数值预报业务模式进行垂直分层增加和积 云对流参数化改进,并设计八种对比试验方案,对9406号台风进行模拟预报,通过 对比分析各方案模拟预报的台风移动路径,探寻数值模式对台风移动路径预报的 影响因子。 相似文献
106.
对9711号台风天气形势和物理量场的诊断分析结果表明:东南低空急流和高层的西风急流与台风的相互作用,高层辐散区与低层辐合区同时北抬和重叠,是造成山东地区附近大范围暴雨的主要原因。暴雨区主要位于台风移动前方的右侧。台风的移向与副高的位置及强弱变化有关。 相似文献
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台风业务应用和预警系统简介 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
为满足江苏省气象台日常业务和日益增加的服务需求,台风业务应用和预警系统(Typhoon Operational Application and Pre-warning System,以下简称TOAPS)依据中国气象局台风业务规范,结合江苏省台多年的实践经验,融入江苏省台最新研究成果,采用可视化语言编制而成。系统集报文解码、多家预报路径功能显示、预报发布、历史相似性查询、登陆台风"移行路径分类概念模式"、台风中心的云图定位及诸多辅助工具于一体。经过2003—2005三年台汛期在江苏省气象台的应用检验,证明该系统稳定可靠、软硬件环境要求较低、移植性好、可操作性强、自动化程度高,在江苏省台日常业务和专业服务方面发挥了重要作用。 相似文献
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