台风决策气象服务初探——以“纳沙”台风为例

随着经济增长和社会发展,台风灾害带来的损失越发严重和致命,科学、准确地为政府决策层提供决策服务产品,在保障人民生命财产安全、促进社会经济发展乃至稳定和谐等方面都起着非常重要的作用。立足于台风决策气象服务业务实践,通过完整再现2011年最强台风＂纳沙＂的决策气象服务过程,总结和提炼出目前台风决策气象服务的主要方式和产品编制要求、流程,并挖掘出服务的经验和亮点;同时,分析现实服务中客观存在的一些弊端和问题,思考进一步改进方案,旨在不断提升决策气象服务产品的质量,全力做好台风决策气象服务工作,从而为政府及相关部门应急决策管理提供科学的依据,为台风防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。     

活动星系核统一模式的统计检验

本文对视超光速源样本的有关数据进行统计分析，检验活动星系核统一模式。给出各类视超光速源的Ｒ（核光度与扩展区光度之比）分布和喷流与视线的平均夹角　。分析源样本的Ｒ、洛伦兹因子ｒ、喷流的投影尺度ｄ和线性尺度ｌ间的关系，发现Ｒ和ｄ之间存在反相关、ｒ和ｌ之间存在相关的特性，这些结果有利于说明活动星系核统一模式的取向效应。     

Perturbed Gylden Systems and Time-Dependent Delaunay-Like Transformations

We study the possibilities and limitations of the application of generalized Delaunay-like transformations (in the 6-dimensional phase space) and TR-like mappings (in the 8-dimensional, extended phase space) to perturbed two-body problems with a time-varying Keplerian parameter μ(t), that is, to Gylden-type systems. For the sake of theoretical completeness, both negative- and positive-energy motion (with nonstationary coupling parameter) are, in principle, considered. Our developments are intended to introduce canonical variables parallelling the classical ones of Delaunay and the Delaunay-Similar variables of Scheifele. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

台风"麦莎"的天气过程总结

利用全市21个自动气象站的逐时资料，分析了台风“麦莎”对苏州市的风雨影响，并将其与20世纪90年代以来对苏州造成严重影响的9015号和9711号两个台风，分别从登陆时强度、登陆后移动路径、影响苏州市的持续时间和形成的风雨实况等方面进行了对比分析。通过分析比较得出，台风“麦莎”是20世纪90年代以来对苏州影响最严重的一次台风过程。     

Non-integrability of the problem of motion around an oblate planet

We provide a result of non-analytic integrability of the so-called J ₂-problem. Precisely by using the Lerman theorem we are able to prove the existence of a region of the phase space, where the dynamical system exhibits chaotic motions.     

Spatial Structure of Regular and Chaotic Orbits in A Self-Consistent Triaxial Stellar System

We created a triaxial stellar system through the cold dissipationless collapse of 100,000 particles whose evolution was followed with a multipolar code. Once an equilibrium system had been obtained, the multipolar expansion was freezed and smoothed in order to get a stationary smooth potential. The resulting model was self-consistent and the orbits and Lyapunov exponents could then be computed for a randomly selected sample of 3472 of the bodies that make up the system. More than half of the orbits (52.7 % ) turned out to be chaotic. Regular orbits were then classified using the frequency analysis automatic code of Carpintero and Aguilar (1998, MNRAS 298(1), 1–21). We present plots of the distributions of the different kinds of orbits projected on the symmetry planes of the system. We distinguish chaotic orbits with only one non-zero Lyapunov exponent from those with two non-zero exponents and show that their spatial distributions differ, that of the former being more similar to the one of the regular orbits. Most of the regular orbits are boxes and boxlets, but the minor axis tubes play an important role filling in the wasp waists of the boxes and helping to give a lentil shape to the system. We see no problem in building stable triaxial models with substantial amounts of chaotic orbits; the difficulties found by other authors may be due not to a physical cause but to a limitation of Schwarzschild’s method.     

RELATIVE MOTION AND DEFORMATION OF PACIFIC PLATE FROM SPACE GEODESY

1　IntroductionThroughoutthegeologicalhistory ,almostallthetectonicplateactivities,suchasearthquakes,volcaniceruption ,andmountainbuilding ,takeplaceatactiveplateboundaries.Forexample,approxi mately 90 percentoftheearthquakesoccuratactiveplateboundaries[1 - 4 ] ,andthehighestmountainsofTibetandAndesresultfromthecontinualcollisionbetweenIndiaandAsia ,NazcaandSouthAmericaplates,respectively .Aplateboundaryisafracturethatseparatesaplatefromanother;theneighboringplatesmoverelativetooneanotherin…     

疏散星团NGC2244天区恒星的绝对自行研究

利用上海天文台相隔35年的两期照相底片资料,测定了疏散星团NGC2244所在天区55’×55’范围内495颗恒星基于Tycho-2星表的位置和绝对自行,并对自行精度作了初步分析。     

A complex analytic solution for the attitude motion of a near-symmetric rigid body under body-fixed torques

Although analytic solutions for the attitude motion of a rigid body are available for several special cases, a comprehensive theory does not exist in the literature for the more complicated problems found in spacecraft dynamics. In the present paper, analytic solutions in complex form are derived for the attitude motion of a near-symmetric rigid body under the influence of constant body-fixed torques. The solution is very compact, which enables efficient and rapid machine computation. Numerical simulations reveal that the solution is very accurate when applied to typical spinning spacecraft problems.