Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

A high resolution relative paleointensity record from the Gerlache-Boyd paleo-ice stream region, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.     

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.     

小岩头滑坡稳定性分析

小岩头滑坡位于贵州省威宁县二(连浩特)河(口)高速公路K255 010~K255 240里程右侧,属一个大型古滑坡,发育于二叠系上统峨嵋山组玄武岩(P2β)地层中。在高速公路施工中对路堑进行深挖削坡,可能导致古滑坡中部、线路右侧斜坡失稳破坏,发生滑坡。因此,滑坡稳定性评价是重大工程地质问题之一。根据大量勘察试验资料,系统地揭示了滑坡的特征,分析了滑坡形成的控制因素、成因和形成机制,建立了滑坡体稳定性计算模型,利用反演计算法进行稳定性分析与评价,认为两滑体均处于滑动失稳状态。建议对滑坡体进行处理,采用排水、支挡、减压等措施进行整治。     

利用激光强度信息分类激光扫描测高数据

三维机载激光扫描测高数据中不仅含有每个激光脚点的位置和高程信息，而且越来越多的系统同时能提供激光脚点回波信号的强度信息。不同反射面介质对激光信号的反射特性不一样．用实测的数据对激光回波信号的强度信息进行统计标定，并基于标定结果．实现了联合激光强度信息和高程信息进行分类的算法．获得了较为满意的结果。     

非地转强迫对Fitow(0114)暴雨的影响

利用非静力中尺度模式MM5对 0 114号台风Fitow从 2 0 0 1年 8月 31日 0 0时～ 9月 2日 0 0时 (UTC ,下同 )的降水过程进行了模拟研究。结果表明 ,MM5对Fitow登陆过程中暴雨落区和强度的模拟与实况比较一致。模拟结果较好地再现了暴雨的中尺度特征。正是维持少动的台风倒槽和嵌入其中的中小尺度系统相互作用造成了暴雨的发生、发展 ,而高、低空中尺度散度场的配置对暴雨有很好的指示意义。在华南台风暴雨区无论是高层还是低层 ,都存在很强的非地转作用 ,非地转涡度项对散度倾向项是重要的强迫因素 ;但非地转作用的实现与中高纬度地区有本质的区别 ,在低层非地转作用是由于强的位势场气旋涡度 (- 2  <0 )与弱的流场气旋涡度 (fζ >0 )不平衡产生的 ;而高层非地转作用是由于强的位势场反气旋涡度 (- 2  >0 )与弱的流场反气旋涡度 (fζ <0 )不平衡产生的。非地转作用是暴雨中尺度系统上升运动发展的触发机制。从动力学角度解释了用非地转 Q矢量散度场来判断暴雨落区要比用准地转 Q矢量散度场好的原因。     

用SSM/I微波遥感图像分析海上台风的螺旋云带

文中介绍了美国国防气象卫星专用微波成像仪 (SSM /I)上各通道的特性 ,分析了大气中各种粒子 (尤其是云滴和降水滴 )对各通道辐射的吸收和散射效应。通过对SSM /I图像上台风单通道剖面、双通道散点图的分析 ,揭示了台风在微波图像上表现形式的内在物理原因。在此基础上 ,设计了一个降水指数 ,方法是 :将 85 .5GHz的吸收段对称拉伸到散射段的延长线上 ,然后求归一化后的 19.35 ,37.0GHz和经拉伸处理的 85 .5GHz图像 3者的平均值。 3个通道合成降水指数克服了 37.0GHz对大雨滴不敏感 ,和 85 .5GHz对中等大小雨滴不敏感的缺点 ,比原始单通道微波图像更清楚地显示了台风的螺旋云带结构     

台风活动对副热带高压位置和强度的影响

利用一个浅水模式，实施了6组时间积分为4－5个模式日的试验，研究了台风对副热带高压中心位置及强度的影响。结果表明：台风和副热带高压的相互作用可以使高压中心位置西移,强度增加。据此讨论了台风活动和西北地区东部干旱之间统计联系的可能机制。