Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Hierarchical decomposition of variance with applications in environmental mapping based on satellite images

A quadtree-based image segmentation procedure (HQ) is presented to map complex environmental conditions. It applies a hierarchical nested analysis of variance within the framework of multiresolution wavelet approximation. The procedure leads to an optimal solution for determining mapping units based on spatial variability with constraints on the arrangement and shape of the units. Linkages to geostatisiics are pointed out, but the HQ decomposition algorithm does not require any homogeneity criteria. The computer implementation can be parameterized by either the number of required mapping units or the maximum within-unit variance, or it can provide a spectrum of significances of nested ANOVA. The detailed mathematical background and methodology is illustrated by a salt-affected grassland mapping study (Hortobágy, Hungary), where heterogeneous environmental characteristics have been sampled and predicted based on remotely sensed images using these principles.     

Generalized ‘dependencies’ and parameter variance

The autodependence, (a special case of the — now quite obsolete — dependences, which had been introduced for very specialized astrometric purposes) is proportional to the parameter variance which is the expectation of the variance of the systematic error of a function evaluated with estimated parameters.     

Fluctuation in the zooplankton community in two solar salt ponds,Aveiro, Portugal

The zooplankton of two salt ponds at Aveiro was studied to evaluate its density and diversity. Samples were collected biweekly from the salt ponds Esmolas and Tanoeiras. Samples were first separated into Holoplankton (Copepoda, nauplii,Acartia, Ostracoda and Anostraca) and Meroplankton (Mollusca, Insecta, annelidan larvae and Ichthyoplankton). The Holoplankton was mainly composed of:Acartia tonsa, Acartia sp.,Eurytemora velox, Artemia sp., and harpacticoids and calanoids. In both salt ponds, species diversity was identical, but total zooplankton density was higher in the Tanoeiras salt pond, probably because its physical and chemical characteristics allowed the development of stable communities.     

方差体技术在地震勘探中的应用

三维地震数据体反映了地下一个规则网格的反射情况。当遇到地下有断层或某个局部区域地层不连续变化时，一些地震道的反射特征就会与附近地震道出现差异而导致地震首局部的不连续性。三维方差体技术就是求取三维数据体所有样点的方差值来反映这种不连续性信息。通过该技术在济宁2号井某采区的实际应用，可看出，方差体技术在三维地震信息的自动拾取以及提高地震资料解释成果精度等方面有明显优势，对断层、陷落柱有良好的自动识别能力。     

GIS叠置图层方差分量的极大似然估计

针对GIS叠置中的同名点,以维希特分布密度为似然函数,提出了各图层方差分量的极大似然估计方法。该方法不依赖残差,不需要迭代就能估计未知参数和方差分量。     

Application of Linear Thermodynamics to the Atmospheric System. Part Ⅰ: Linear Phenomenological Relations and Thermodynamic Property of the Atmospheric System

从一般的热力学原理或其它自然原理对唯象关系所强加的限制，能够演绎出大气系统的一系列热力学性质。利用非平衡态线性热力学导出了湍流K闭合理论中湍流交换系数同唯象系数的关系，从理论上证明大气系统热量湍流输送同水泡之间存在交叉耦合，还导出了湍流强度同速度和位温梯度的关系，从而证明速度和位温空间分布的非均匀性是湍流之源。并证明湍流强度定理，不可压缩气体和各向同性湍流大气中，湍流强度正比于速度与位温梯度的标积。进而证明大气涡旋定理，位温的切变将导致涡旋运动或各种环流运动，速度涡度等于速度同位温相对梯度的矢积。展现了线性热力学在大气系统的应用前景。     

Size Scaling of Cross Correlation Between Multiple Variables

Reservoir models have large uncertainty because of spatial variability and limited sample data. The ultimate aim is to use simultaneously all available data sources to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable reservoir models for resource assessment and flow simulation. Seismic impedance or some other attribute provides a key source of data for reservoir modeling. These seismic data are at a coarser scale than the hard well data and it not an exact measurement of facies proportions or porosity. A requirement for data integration is the cross-covariance between the well and seismic data.The size-scaling behavior of the cross correlation for different measurement scales was nvestigated. The size-scaling relationship is derived theoretically and validated by numerical studies (including an example with real data). The limit properties of the cross-correlation coefficient when the averaging volume becomes large is shown. After some averaging volume, the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient reaches a limit value. This plateau value is controlled mainly by the large-scale behavior of the cross and direct variograms.The cross correlation can increase or decrease with volume support depending on the relative importance of long- and short-scale covariance structures. If the direct and cross variograms are proportional, there is no change in the cross correlation as the averaging volume changes. Our study shows that the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient is sensitive to the shape of the cross variogram and differences between the direct variograms of the well data and seismic data.     

东天山北麓2000多年以来的森林线与环境变化

依据吉木萨尔县泉子街乡桦树窝子和小西沟两个剖面进行高时间分辨率的孢粉分析，结合剖面岩性特征分析、历史文献记录和碳屑鉴定，揭示了天山北麓最近2000多年以来的环境变化。2000aB．P．以前，该地植被为荒漠草原；2000-1300aB．P．(50a B．C．-650A．D．)，植被为草原植被，其中1750—1400aB．P．(200—550A．D．)，植被为有少量森林的草原植被，当时气候状况较今凉湿，适宜云杉生长，使得云杉林带下移，幅度可达250m左右。当时的年均气温较今低1℃而降水量较高，是新疆历史上一个相对冷湿的环境；约1300—450a B．P．(650—1500A．D．)，植被为荒漠草原；4．50aB．P．年以来，植被为荒漠草原—草原。     

西藏纳木错晚更新世以来湖面变化和藏北高原古大湖的演化

根据西藏纳木错及邻区发现的多处湖岸阶地和高位湖相沉积,确定了藏北高原古大湖的存在。水准测量表明,在纳木错沿岸发育了6级湖岸阶地,以及拔湖48～139.2m的高位湖相沉积;在拔湖26m以下,发育有8～30条湖岸堤;一条明显的湖蚀凹槽则集中出现在拔湖17.5～19.8m的高度上,与纳木错和仁错的分水垭口的高度相当。纳木错沿岸和邻区湖相或湖滨相沉积物的铀系年龄测定表明,高位湖相沉积形成于115.9～71.8kaB.P.的晚更新世早期;第6至第2级阶地形成于53.7～28.2kaB.P.的晚更新世中晚期;与湖蚀凹槽相当的湖滨相沉积则稍早于29.3kaB.P.;第2至第1级阶地,14C测定结果为2350～10390aB.P.。