Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动的显著关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分析了冬季（11～4月）Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动（NPO）的变化特征以及它们之间的关系.本文选取0°~30°N区域里最大质量流函数来描述北半球Hadley环流强度随时间的演变,利用(20°N, 180°~160°W) 和 (60°N, 180°~160°W) 区域平均的标准化海平面气压差代表NPO强度.结果表明,冬季北半球Hadley环流与NPO的变化形势非常一致,两者都具有显著的年际和年代际变化（70年代前处于负位相,80年代之后处于正位相）,同时还呈现出明显的增强趋势.Hadley环流变化与NPO异常的关系非常密切,在年际和年代际时间尺度上都具有显著的正相关.这种强相关性在大气环流场上可以得到很好的印证.研究还揭示,太平洋地区10°~30°N下沉支和40°~60°N上升支的异常运动可能是这种关系存在的主要内在原因.     

Some theoretical problems of the planetary-scale monsoons

Summary Some important theoretical problems of the planetary-scale monsoons which have arisen from recent advances of observational studies are reviewed. These include: (1) the requirement of a strong damping mechanism in the planetary scale vorticity budget of summer monsoon and a similar but weaker requirement for the winter monsoon; (2) the localized barotropic instability of the summer monsoon which is a result of the strong zonal asymmetry of the planetary-scale flow and causes significant nonlinear energy conversions; and (3) the oscillations of the planetary-scale monsoons. It is pointed out that these problems are inter-related and their understanding is also important for the proper simulation of other scales of motion of the monsoon circulation.     

北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率

首先对各种北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数的定义进行了比较。发现冬季和夏季NAO的涛动中心有显著的差异,所以分别进行定义,定义时的中心由EOF分析及相关分析确定,新的定义能解释更多的海平面气压方差。在此基础上建立了1873年以来的冬、夏NAO指数序列。近百年来的NAO指数最突出的年代际变化是,夏季在1910～1920年期间的突变性质的增强,以及冬季近20多年来的持续加强。最后还对NAO年代际变化产生的可能原因进行了分析。     

El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis

Sea‐level data from two sites in northern New Zealand, along with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are analysed for interannual and decadal variability using wavelets. The analysis shows, using statistically significant wavelet power, there is a significant relationship between mean sea level (MSL) and SOI. However, the relationship is highly variable, both in magnitude and in the range of time‐scales over which it occurs. This non‐stationarity necessitates the use of techniques such as wavelets for analysis. An interdecadal response in MSL around northern New Zealand has been isolated, with shifts occurring in 1950 and the late 1970s. This behaviour in MSL appears to coincide with shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thought previously to be largely centred in the North Pacific. A strong correlation between SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) is also demonstrated. This relationship appears to be stable in magnitude (a large change in SOI produces a large change in SST) and to occur over the same range of time‐scales. More SST and MSL data are required for other parts of New Zealand to determine whether these findings apply elsewhere.     

Increased Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth：An Indicator of the Connection between Enhanced Winter NAO and Late-Spring Tropospheric Cooling over East Asia

The authors present evidence to suggest that variations in the snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are connected with changes of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter (JFM). During the positive phase of NAO, the Asian subtropical westerly jet intensifies and the India-Myanmar trough deepens. Both of these processes enhance ascending motion over the TP. The intensified upward motion, together with strengthened southerlies upstream of the India-Myanmar trough, favors stronger snowfall over the TP, which is associated with East Asian tropospheric cooling in the subsequent late spring (April--May). Hence, the decadal increase of winter snow depth over the TP after the late 1970s is proposed to be an indicator of the connection between the enhanced winter NAO and late spring tropospheric cooling over East Asia.     

大尺度环流异常对南极印度洋扇区海表面高盐异常的影响

南极印度洋扇区分布了许多南极底层水的生成区,此海域海水盐度变化对全球的气候变化有着深远影响。本文采用EN4再分析数据、实测海豹资料和WOD18数据,结合大气再分析和海冰密集度数据,对南极印度洋扇区表面盐度长期变化及其对大尺度环流异常的响应进行探究。2008年以来,南极沿岸出现显著的海表面持续性高盐异常,其中印度洋扇区变化最为显著,表层高盐水主要集中在达恩利冰间湖附近与沙克尔顿冰架以北的海域。沿岸海域的高盐陆架水向北扩张且影响深度不断加深,高盐的绕极深层水上涌也更加明显。此高盐异常与南极涛动(Antarctic Oscillation,AAO)、印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)两种大尺度环流密切相关。AAO与IOD正位相下,西风显著增强,促进海冰大量生成,为海表面提供了大量的盐通量。同时,海表面出现更显著的风场旋度负异常与低压异常,促进高盐深层水上涌,对高盐异常有重要维持作用。此外,纬向风剪切与蒸发增强也是影响该高盐异常的重要局地过程。     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

北太平洋热带水体积的年际变化及其变化机制

利用EN4(the UK Met Office EN4.2.1 analyses)盐度数据发现北太平洋副热带高盐中心——北太平洋热带水(NPTW)的海表面积与体积在2000—2008年、2014—2017年存在下降趋势,2008—2014年期间存在上升趋势,进一步的研究表明,这些变化与太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换紧密相关。利用淡水通量数据以及ECCO2(Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II)流场数据计算分析后表明,淡水通量对NPTW的变化贡献较小,而水平输运对NPTW的表面积以及体积变化贡献较大,这与PDO正(负)位相期间北赤道流(NEC)的向北(南)摆动有关。     

吕宋和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化规律的对比分析

黑潮是北太平洋副热带环流系统的一支重要的西边界流。前人对不同流段黑潮的季节和年际变化进行了诸多研究,然而基于不同数据所得结论仍存在差异,尤其是不同模式计算所得流量差别很大,而且以往研究往往着眼于某一流段,对不同流段黑潮变化之间的异同及其原因涉及较少。本文基于卫星高度计数据,评估了OFES(Ocean generalcir culation model For the Earth Simulator)和HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)两个模式对吕宋岛和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化的模拟能力,进而对两个海域黑潮变化的异同及其物理机制进行了分析。结果表明:HYCOM模式对黑潮季节变化的模拟较好,而OFES模式对黑潮年际变化的模拟较好。吕宋岛以东黑潮和台湾岛以东黑潮在季节与年际尺度上的变化规律均不相同,且受不同动力过程控制。吕宋岛以东黑潮呈现冬春季强而秋季弱的变化规律,主要受北赤道流分叉南北移动的影响;而台湾岛以东黑潮呈现夏季强冬季弱的变化特点,主要受该海区反气旋涡与气旋涡相对数目的季节变化影响。在年际尺度上,吕宋岛以东黑潮与北赤道流分叉及风应力旋度呈负相关,当风应力旋度超前于流量4个月时相关系数达到了-0.56;而台湾岛以东黑潮的流量变化则受制于副热带逆流区涡动能的变化,且滞后于涡动能9个月时达到最大正相关,相关系数为0.44。本研究对于深入理解不同流段黑潮的多尺度变异规律及其对邻近海区环流与气候的影响具有重要意义,同时对于黑潮研究的数值模式选取具有重要参考价值。