Vulnerability Assessment at Village Level Due to Tides,Surges and Wave Setup

An assessment of cyclone risk and vulnerability at the village level has evolved, which is an important component of the information system for local level development action plans for preparedness and mitigation. Here, a case study for the Nellore district along the east coast of India is considered. Using maximum probable surges along the coast, total water level (TWL) due to the combined effect of surge, tide, and wind wave is computed for the most vulnerable coastal villages of the Nellore district due to any tropical cyclones. The computations suggest that the TWL along the Nellore coast varies from 2 m in the south to 4 m in the north.     

滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究

建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50~80 m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19 a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。     

Global distributions of storm-time ionospheric currents as seen in geomagnetic field variations

To investigate temporal and spatial evolution of global geomagnetic field variations from high-latitude to the equator during geomagnetic storms, we analyzed ground geomagnetic field disturbances from high latitudes to the magnetic equator. The daytime ionospheric equivalent current during the storm main phase showed that twin-vortex ionospheric currents driven by the Region 1 field-aligned currents （R1 FACs） are intensified significantly and expand to the low-latitude region of-30~ magnetic latitude. Centers of the currents were located around 70~ and 65~ in the morning and afternoon, respectively. Corresponding to intensification of the R1 FACs, an enhancement of the eastward/westward equatorial electrojet occurred at the daytime/nighttime dip equator. This signature suggests that the enhanced convection electric field penetrates to both the daytime and nighttime equa- tor. During the recovery phase, the daytime equivalent current showed that two new pairs of twin vortices, which are different from two-cell ionospheric currents driven by the R1 FACs, appear in the polar cap and mid latitude. The former led to enhanced north- ward Bz （NBZ） FACs driven by lobe reconnection tailward of the cusps, owing to the northward interplanetary magnetic field （IMF）. The latter was generated by enhanced Region 2 field-aligned currents （R2 FACs）. Associated with these magnetic field variations in the mid-latitudes and polar cap, the equatorial magnetic field variation showed a strongly negative signature, produced by the westward equatorial electrojet current caused by the dusk-to-dawn electric field.     

Back‐barrier flooding by storm surges and overland flow

Low‐elevation areas within a sandy barrier island are subject to flooding via saturation overland flow following moderate storm surges and rainfall events. Using a high resolution topographic survey and simple hydrology models, we estimate the discharge and velocities from storm surge return flow and saturation overland flow. Results show that return flow velocities are of the same magnitude as the critical velocity necessary to mobilize sand when a hydraulic connection between the watershed and back‐barrier bay is present. Storms of moderate strength and rainfall intensity may be sufficient to keep the return channels open within the back‐barrier, thus providing natural conduits for water exchange from overwash events during extreme storm surges triggered by hurricanes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Compared performance of a conceptual and a mechanistic hydrologic models of a green roof

In order to investigate the hydrologic response of a green roof system within the urban environment, a monitoring campaign is carried out at the green roof site of the University of Genova (Italy). Experimental data confirm that the green roof is able to significantly mitigate the generation of runoff with median values of retained volume and peak reduction, respectively, equal to 94 and 98%. A conceptual linear reservoir and a simple mechanistic (Hydrus‐1D) models are implemented to simulate the hydrologic behaviour of the system; each model is calibrated and validated based on experimental data collected at the green roof site. The hydrographs simulated with both hydrologic models reproduce with acceptable matching capabilities the experimental measurements, as confirmed by the Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency index generally greater than 0·60. Although the relative percentage differences evaluated for the selected hydrograph variables (the total effluent volume, the peak flow rate and the hydrograph centroid) demonstrate that the mechanistic model is more accurate, prediction errors of the conceptual model are generally limited when compared with the observed hydrologic performance. Results of the present comparison are useful in supporting conceptual model selection in case the hydrologic response is addressed for hydrologic performance assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论

讨论了2010年4月14日青海玉树大震的震源组合模式。用临界慢化的观点讨论了玉树大震的前震。以异年倍九律与磁暴二倍法相配讨论了玉树大震的发生日期。     

长江水下三角洲沉积物柱状样重金属垂向分布特征

对长江水下三角洲3个沉积物柱状样进行粒度分析、²¹⁰Pb测年,并测定其中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属元素和Al等常量元素的含量,得到了沉积物粒度、粘土含量、重金属含量的垂向分布曲线和沉积物测年数据。通过相关分析来研究沉积物中的Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属、粒度、Al相互之间的关系;以Al为参照元素对这4种重金属进行归一化处理,分析其归一化前后的垂向分布特征。结果表明,Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn 4种重金属元素在此区域的地球化学行为相似,其分布受细颗粒沉积物的吸附和胶体的絮凝作用共同控制;近一二十年来,该区域的Cr、Cu、Pb含量并没有显著增加,Zn有轻微污染。此外,CJ19柱中Cu存在异常峰值,可能是特大风暴潮事件对研究区浅水区底质沉积物中重金属的分布造成的影响。     

“威马逊”台风暴潮增水及水动力响应数值模拟

基于河口海岸水动力三维数值计算模型,建立浙江沿海天文潮与风暴潮耦合预报模式。利用该模式,对经过浙江沿海海域的台风"威马逊"进行数值计算,风暴潮增水计算结果与实测值符合较好,误差基本在±20 cm以内。计算增水值与传统的调和分析法所得的增水结果相比,也较为一致。进一步对局部水动力响应的研究发现,风暴潮期间,局部地区从底到表各层水流流速均急剧增大或减小,其值达到了与天文潮流同等的数量级。当水流流向与风向相同或相近时,流速增大,相反时,则流速减小。且台风期间,各层水流流向也随风向发生改变,流态变得更加复杂。     

深圳香港海域可能最高潮位和浪高计算分析

基于历史数据的分析,选择历史上强度最强的台风"荷贝"作为设计超强台风的强度,最不利路径的台风"雪莉"作为设计路径,作为深圳香港海域设计超强台风。采用海洋-陆架区-海岸三重嵌套网格建立的天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合模型计算设计超强台风遭遇天文大潮的高潮位登陆时深圳香港海域的可能最高潮位和浪高。计算结果表明,大鹏湾北部和香港吐露港内,可能最高风暴潮位在3.00 m以上,浪高达到4.0～5.0 m;香港维多利亚港风暴潮位2.92 m,深圳香港水域东部南部在2.50 m以上,浪高3.0～5.0 m。可能最高风暴潮位比大鹏湾防潮警戒水位高1.62 m左右,比香港维多利亚港200年一遇的潮位高0.50 m。     

2009年中国一次沙尘暴过程中的水汽变化特征及WRF回报

通过对2009年4月22日至25日发生在甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古的一次沙尘暴观测和模拟回报试验,分析了沙尘暴过程中水汽及水热的变化特征,检验了天气研究和预报模式（WRF）对沙尘暴过程的模拟能力。结果表明,WRF能较好地再现出沙尘暴过程中水汽变化的基本特征。沙尘暴发生前,地面感热明显增加,大气中水汽明显减少。在沙尘暴过程中,扩散作用和气溶胶的凝结作用影响水汽的变化,而水汽的垂直方向变化较小;高空云水和云冰含量异常偏小,低层大气的温度和水汽含量下降。热力诊断的结果表明,沙尘暴过程中,由于水汽的相变,在600～800 hPa高度处,水汽凝结产生的视热源的加热率高达6 ℃·d-1,表明非绝热加热作用在沙尘暴的维持和发展起着重要的作用。