Taxonomic sufficiency for soft-bottom sublittoral mollusks assemblages in a tropical estuary, Guanabara Bay, Southeast Brazil

Guanabara Bay (GB) is considered to be one of the most polluted environments of the southern Brazilian coastline. This typical estuarine system is impacted by the heavy discharge of both industrial and domestic waste from the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. The mollusc community structure and distribution was investigated between 2000 and 2001, using a three month sampling design of 38 stations, according to austral seasons. Species abundance was aggregated into progressively higher taxa matrices (genus, family, order) and were analysed using multivariate techniques. Mollusc distribution in GB varied significantly in space and time and was probably ruled by the organic enrichment effects of hypoxia and altered redox conditions coupled with prevailing patterns of circulation. Within the sectors of GB an increasing gradient in mollusc diversity and occurrence was observed, ranging from the azoic and impoverished stations in the inner sector to a well-structured community in terms of species composition and abundance inhabiting the outer sector. The non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) and cluster analysis showed similar results when species were aggregated into genera and families, while greater difference occurred at coarser taxonomic identification (order). The literature about taxonomic sufficiency has demonstrated that faunal patterns at different taxonomic levels tend to become similar with increased pollution. In Guanabara Bay, an analysis carried out solely at family level is perfectly adequate to describe the ecophysiological stress. Further aggregation to order level changed the perceived patterns of differences. However, a different taxonomic resolution can be chosen depending on the type of ecological patterns investigated.     

城市非点源污染管理的制度、信息和决策支撑

城市非点源污染对中国水环境的威胁日益加剧。制度不健全、信息基础薄弱和缺少决策支撑是当前城市非点源污染管理的主要制约因素。短期内,改善城市非点源污染管理的首要任务是夯实信息基础。从长远来看,制度的完善是落实城市非点源污染管理的根本保障。发达国家在信息基础建设和制度设计方面的成果和经验对于中国城市非点源污染管理工作有重要的参考价值。此外,先进的决策支撑技术是管理获得预期成效的重要保障。国际上决策支撑技术研究的最新发展动态值得国内相关领域借鉴。     

Late Quaternary glaciation and equilibrium-line altitudes of the Mayan Ice Cap, Guatemala, Central America

The Sierra los Cuchumatanes (3837 m), Guatemala, supported a plateau ice cap and valley glaciers around Montaña San Juan (3784 m) that totaled ∼ 43 km² in area during the last local glacial maximum. Former ice limits are defined by sharp-crested lateral and terminal moraines that extend to elevations of ∼ 3450 m along the ice cap margin, and to ca. 3000-3300 m for the valley glaciers. Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) estimated using the area-altitude balance ratio method for the maximum late Quaternary glaciation reached as low as 3470 m for the valley glaciers and 3670 m for the Mayan Ice Cap. Relative to the modern altitude of the 0°C isotherm of ∼ 4840 m, we determined ELA depressions of 1110-1436 m. If interpreted in terms of a depression of the freezing level during maximal glaciation along the modern lapse rate of − 5.3°C km^− 1, this ΔELA indicates tropical highland cooling of ∼ 5.9 to 7.6 ± 1.2°C. Our data support greater glacial highland cooling than at sea level, implying a high tropical sensitivity to global climate changes. The large magnitude of ELA depression in Guatemala may have been partially forced by enhanced wetness associated with southward excursions of the boreal winter polar air mass.     

鄂尔多斯盆地柳林地区下奥陶统冶里组竹叶状石灰岩的沉积环境和成因机制

鄂尔多斯盆地柳林地区早奥陶世冶里期沉积以浅灰色中薄层泥质白云岩为主,发育大量竹叶状碳酸盐岩。不同类型的竹叶状碎屑反映了不同的沉积环境。笔者对研究区剖面内的竹叶状碎屑进行分析和研究后认为,竹叶状石灰岩的形成可以分为早期沉积物的形成和早期沉积物的破碎、搬运和再沉积两个阶段。     

铁山湾内天文潮对风暴潮水位的影响研究

作为半封闭狭长海湾,铁山湾受风暴潮灾害的影响较为严重。根据多年观测资料和数值模型对铁山湾内的风暴潮水位特征进行了研究。观测资料表明海湾内风暴潮峰值水位受天文潮相位影响较为显著,然后基于ADCIRC风暴潮模型和1409号“威马逊”台风参数,定量评估了天文潮对风暴潮水位的影响。模拟结果表明当考虑天文潮作用时,会显著提高模拟结果精度,然后通过数值实验研究了风暴潮与不同相位天文潮相互作用时的水位变化特征。数值实验结果表明天文潮-风暴潮相互作用引起的非线性水位在涨潮阶段不明显,在高潮位时非线性水位达到负值最大;在落潮时达到正值最大。风暴潮增水峰值由于受到这种非线性效应的影响,在高潮位时数值最小。海湾内非线性作用要远大于外部,非线性效应越强,总水位峰值相对于天文潮高潮位的延迟时间也就越长。     

海洋风暴沉积的微体生物研究进展

微体生物和它们的化石在研究现代风暴和古风暴沉积方面是一个很好和有效的指标。本文综述了国内外近几十年来有关海洋风暴沉积研究中微体生物的应用。目前主要的研究成果集中在对古风暴层有孔虫、硅藻的研究上,而孢粉方面的研究较少。应用微体化石揭示地质历史时期古风暴的发生频率已较为成熟。但未来需提高古风暴重建的可靠性、准确性和精确性,以及探讨微体化石记录与风暴强度之间的相关关系。有关现代风暴过程中微体生物的研究稍显逊色,研究程度较低。了解现代风暴过程中不同沉积环境下微体生物的沉积特征、面貌,它们的形成和保存机制等将成为未来的研究热点和方向。     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

The atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the frequency of spring sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the sand-storm frequency data fi＇om 37 weather stations in the Tarim Basin for the period 1961-2009, the relationship between the frequency of spring sandstorms in the Tafim Basin and the associated atmospheric circu- lation pattems is analyzed in this study. We found significantly negative correlations between sandstorm frequency and the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Paris Basin and midwestem Mongolia, while there were positive correlations over the Ural River region. The rising of the 500-hPa geopotential height in midwestem Mongolia and its falling over the Ural region corre- spond to a weakening of the large-scale wave patterns in the Eurasian region, which directly causes the frequency of the sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin to decline. Also, the abrupt decline in the spring sandstorm frequency in the Tarim Basin observed in the last half-century is associated with profound changes in the atmospheric circulation in these key regions. At the interannual scale, the strengthened cyclonic atmospheric circulation patterns in the western part of Mongolia and the anticyclonic patterns over the East European plains at 500-hPa geopotential height, are responsible for frequent sandstorm occurrences in the Tarim Basin.     

一次超级单体雹暴观测分析和成雹区识别研究

利用多普勒雷达资料,结合探空和常规资料,对2011 年4 月17 日一次超级单体雹暴的流场和回波结构演变特征进行了详细研究,主要结果:该雹暴是在条件性不稳定和垂直风切变较大的环境条件下产生的右移风暴。雹云初生发展阶段,垂直剖面显示逐渐形成有组织化的斜上升气流促进雹云发展。成熟降雹阶段,雹云内形成一支强的斜上升气流和深厚的中气旋,主上升气流对应雹云的弱回波区。雹云维持典型的弱回波区—悬挂回波—回波墙特征结构。根据雷达径向速度和雹云移速订正得出的“零线”演变发现,随着雹云的发展,“零线”逐渐向悬挂回波靠近,并穿过悬挂回波,“零线”的走向为上翘式,附近“穴道”的汇集力较强,有利于降雹。通过对“零线”位置的判断可分析有利成雹的区域。根据高低空两层强回波的水平错位,利用两高度强中心连线所作剖面能快速准确得出特征剖面,并将0℃ 层以上6 km 高度处降雹潜势达到100%的45 dBZ 的区域识别为成雹区,与降雹实况对比发现识别效果良好。     

中国南海极端风暴海况下固定式平台结构可靠性分析

基于中国南海海域风暴环境条件,研究分析南海海域固定式导管架平台结构整体性和可靠性,以及新建固定式平台结构设计准则。采用海洋环境数据后报方法,得到南海海域1972~2011共40年的风、浪、流联合数据,从中抽取风暴环境条件;利用通用荷载模型,将40年间的风暴环境数据转变成结构的荷载数据,即基底剪力或倾覆力矩;并计算得到风暴环境荷载的短期及长期分布,以及任意风暴下荷载的概率分布;根据结构可靠性模型,结合荷载的长期分布,研究基于结构暴露等级及失效概率的固定式平台结构强度储备比。根据计算,得到了不同暴露等级下中国南海平台的强度储备比,并与墨西哥湾及北海海域进行了比较,为新建平台提供设计参考。