热带内外地区相互作用研究

本文回顾了近年来有关热带内外地区相互作用的研究进展。它主要包括三个方面：（１）热带外扰动对热地区的影响；（２）热带地区大气了研究；（３）热带对热带外地区的影响。本文内容涉及了有关观测资料分析、理论研究以及数值试验三个方面的研究成果。     

冬季西北太平洋海表温度异常对太平洋风暴轴影响的数值试验

采用Ｔ２１Ｌ５大气环流模式，详细探讨了冬季西北太平洋海表温度异常对太平洋风暴轴的影响。结果表明：冬季西北太平洋暖海表温度异常能显著增强异常区北侧及下游地区的斜压性，天气尺度扰动方差、扰动动能以及涡动热量通量等也在此风暴轴入口区得到增强，由此揭示出外热源强迫对太平洋风暴轴的维持和发展起重要作用。     

暴雨类冷涡与非暴雨类冷涡的合成对比分析

选择了８例典型的东北冷涡暴雨过程和８例典型的东北冷涡弱降水过程进行了合成对比分析，发现暴雨类冷涡其暴雨主要出现在冷涡的发展阶段，而非暴雨类冷涡的降水主要发生在冷涡的成熟阶段；暴雨类冷涡与其南侧的副热带低值系统联系密切，非暴雨类冷涡的这一特点不甚明显；暴雨类冷涡的两个降水中心分别出现在系统东侧偏南和南侧偏东一些的地，距系统中心大约３００－４００ｋｍ和７００－８００ｋｍ，这些区域处于低层辐合、高层辐菜     

台风影响期间珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件

采用１９７６－１９８３年６－８月珠江三角洲地区受台风影响期间区内各站逐日的强风暴和降水资料以及广泛站的探空资料，用相关对比度分析方法，对台风环流中的珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件进行统计诊断，得出台风影响珠江三角洲时这两种强天气发生的有利的环境条件，并发现二者在气压、风速、层结稳定度和中下层位势不稳定等方面显著不同。     

Low-latitude total ozone measurements in the Brazilian sector

Regular measurements of the atmospheric ozone in the Brazilian sector were started at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), and Natal (5.8°S, 35.2°W) in May 1974 and November 1978, respectively. The results of the total ozone measurements carried out at these two stations up to 1981 are presented in this communication and compared with other low-and mid-latitude stations. Although Natal is an equatorial station, it presents a prominent annual variation, and the average total ozone content is high compared to satellite measurements. During 1977–78, abnormally low values of total ozone were observed at Cachoeira Paulista. Some preliminary results about the QBO 9quasi-biennial oscillation) during 1974–81 are also presented.     

Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon

The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level.     

On the propagation of streamers through a large population of neutral droplets

Streamers were injected into a large population of small droplets, of radii about 20 m, confined to a given region of pre-determined shape on a photographic film, and situated in a gap between which a variable electric field can be applied. Results showed that the droplet region behaves like a dipole discharging from both ends if its inclination to the electric field is less than 45° and the field is not less than –230 kV/m at atmospheric pressure.We deduced that streamer intensification will occur at relatively low fields if there exists pockets of large number density of small droplets.     

中国北方沙尘灾害特点及其下垫面状况的遥感监测

2000年春季,中国北方地区多次受到沙尘灾害的影响,对生产、生活活动造成了多方面的不利影响。采用遥感和GIS技术进行沙尘灾害的过程监测、空间特点分析和下垫面状况分析是一个有效的技术方法,通过对沙尘灾害发生、发展的环境条件的了解,可以减轻沙尘天气的危害、防治等一系列决策措施的制定、实施提供客观、及时的空间信息,有助于制定和实施区域生态环境保护措施,以便减少沙尘天气的次数和减轻灾害性天气的危害程度。     

Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics

Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable.     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.