Second-guessing uncertainty: Scenario planning for management of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery

An important task of natural resource management is deciding amongst alternative policy options, including how interventions will affect the dynamics of resource exploitation. Yet predicting the behaviour of natural resource users in complex, changeable systems presents a significant challenge for managers. Scenario planning, which involves thinking creatively about how a socio-ecological system might develop under a set of possible futures, was used to explore uncertainties in the future of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. This exercise stimulated thinking on how key social, economic and environmental conditions that influence fleet behaviour may change in the future, and how these changes might affect the dynamics of fishing effort. Three storylines were explored: an increase in marine protection, growing consumer preference for sustainable seafood, and depletion of tuna stocks. Comparing across several possible future scenarios, a number of critical aspects of fleet behaviour were identified that should be important considerations for fishery managers, but which are currently poorly understood. These included a switch in fishing practices, reallocation of effort in space, investment in new vessels and exit from the fishery. Recommendations for future management interventions in the Indian Ocean were offered, along with suggestions for research needed to reduce management uncertainty.     

基于TRMM卫星资料的渤海降水遥感估算研究

降水是全球能量平衡和水分循环中的关键要素,但海洋区域实时、准确的降水观测资料难以获取,因此,遥感卫星资料在海洋降水及全球能量和水分循环研究领域具有十分重要的应用前景。本文基于1998~2012年6个气象站点(岛屿或海岸带)的实测降水资料,评估TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)V7版本3B42、3B43两个降水产品对渤海降水量的估算精度,在此基础上,分析并揭示渤海区域年、季和月降水量的时空特征。结果表明:在日尺度,3B42产品对渤海降水量的估算效果总体较差,而在月、年尺度,3B42、3B43产品与实测降水量比较接近,而且,3B43产品的估算精度稍高;总体上,TRMM表现出低估降水的特点,且当实测月降水量大于300 mm时,这种特征尤为显著;1998~2012年,渤海年降水量表现出明显的年际丰枯变化特征,多年均值为631.6 mm;夏季降水量占年降水总量的62.0%,7月是降水量最丰富的月份;空间上,渤海中南部降水量相对较高,而近岸区域降水量相对较低;受大气环流等因素的影响,夏季降水量重心向西北方向偏移,冬季则向东南方向偏移。     

Chemical spots on the surface of the strongly magnetic Herbig Ae star HD 101412

Due to the knowledge of the rotation period and the presence of a rather strong surface magnetic field, the sharp‐lined young Herbig Ae star HD 101412 with a rotation period of 42 d has become one of the most well‐studied targets among the Herbig Ae stars. High‐resolution HARPS polarimetric spectra of HD 101412 were recently obtained on seven different epochs. Our study of the spectral variability over the part of the rotation cycle covered by HARPS observations reveals that the line profiles of the elements Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Sr are clearly variable while He exhibits variability that is opposite to the behaviour of the other elements studied. Since classical Ap stars usually show a relationship between the magnetic field geometry and the distribution of element spots, we used in our magnetic field measurements different line samples belonging to the three elements with the most numerous spectral lines, Ti, Cr, and Fe. Over the time interval covered by the available spectra, the longitudinal magnetic field changes sign from negative to positive polarity. The distribution of field values obtained using Ti, Cr, and Fe lines is, however, completely different compared to the magnetic field values determined in previous low‐resolution FORS 2 measurements, where hydrogen Balmer lines are the main contributors to the magnetic field measurements, indicating the presence of concentration of the studied iron‐peak elements in the region of the magnetic equator. Further, we discuss the potential role of contamination by the surrounding warm circumstellar matter in the appearance of Zeeman features obtained using Ti lines. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

热带季节内振荡对西北太平洋台风生成的大尺度环境的影响

基于澳大利亚气象局发布的RMM(Real-time Multivariate Madden-Julian oscillation)指数,将热带大气季节内振荡划分为8个位相,统计分析了各位相西北太平洋台风生成频数和位置的变化特征,并进一步利用BDI(Box Difference Index)指数分析了台风生成的活跃和不活跃位相之间环境要素的差别。结果表明,相比于台风生成的不活跃位相(1、2、3位相),在利于台风生成的活跃位相(5、6、7位相)期间,环境场具有更强的低层辐合和高层辐散外流、更高的对流层中层相对湿度和更广的垂直切变较小区域。进一步研究表明,在台风生成的活跃和不活跃位相之间,大尺度环境场的差别主要体现在动力因子方面,尤其是低层辐合场。     

季风低压对台风生成影响的观测分析

选取2007年和2009年发生的4个季风低压个例, 利用FNL资料和CMORPH卫星反演的降水资料, 采用多尺度环流分析法, 对西北太平洋季风环流的多尺度特征进行了分析, 研究季风低压对台风生成的可能影响。分析发现:季风低压生成于季风槽中, 其天气尺度波列的气旋性环流中。虽然以季风槽为特点的低频环流为台风生成提供大尺度气候条件, 但是季风低压通过进一步提供较大的正相对涡度, 可以有效减小Rossby变形半径, 促进热带低压中中尺度对流系统的相互作用和合并, 有利于台风的生成。     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

IR spectroscopy of COmosphere dynamics with the CO ?rst overtone band

We discuss observations of the weak ?rst overtone (Δν = 2) CO absorption band near 2300 nm with the U.S. National Solar Observatory Array Camera (NAC), a modern mid‐infrared detector. This molecular band provides a thermal diagnostic that forms lower in the atmosphere than the stronger fundamental band near 4600 nm. The observed center‐to‐limb increase in CO line width qualitatively agrees with the proposed higher temperature shocks or faster plasma motions higher in the COmosphere. The spatial extent of chromospheric shock waves is currently at or below the diffraction limit of the available CO lines at existing telescopes. Five minute period oscillations in line strength and measured Doppler shifts are consistent with the p‐mode excitation of the photospheric gas. We also show recent efforts at direct imaging at 4600 nm. We stress that future large‐aperture solar telescopes must be teamed with improved, dynamic mid‐infrared instruments, like the NAC, to capitalize on the features that motivate such facilities (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Pulsations and planets: The asteroseismology‐extrasolar‐planet connection

The disciplines of asteroseismology and extrasolar planet science overlap methodically in the branch of high‐precision photometric time series observations. Light curves are, amongst others, useful to measure intrinsic stellar variability due to oscillations, as well as to discover and characterize those extrasolar planets that transit in front of their host stars, periodically causing shallow dips in the observed brightness. Both fields ultimately derive fundamental parameters of stellar and planetary objects, allowing to study for example the physics of various classes of pulsating stars, or the variety of planetary systems, in the overall context of stellar and planetary system formation and evolution. Both methods typically also require extensive spectroscopic follow‐up to fully explore the dynamic characteristics of the processes under investigation. In particularly interesting cases, a combination of observed pulsations and signatures of a planet allows to characterize a system's components to a very high degree of completeness by combining complementary information. The planning of the relevant space missions has consequently converged with respect to science cases, where at the outset there was primarily a coincidence in instrumentation and techniques. Whether space‐ or ground‐based, a specific type of stellar pulsations can themselves be used in an innovative way to search for extrasolar planets. Results from this additional method at the interface of stellar pulsation studies and exoplanet hunts in a beyond‐mainstream area are presented (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Finding the most variable stars in the Orion Belt with the All Sky Automated Survey

We look for high‐amplitude variable young stars in the open clusters and associations of the Orion Belt. We use public data from the ASAS‐3 Photometric V ‐band Catalogue of the All Sky Automated Survey, infrared photometry from the 2MASS and IRAS catalogues, proper motions, and the Aladin sky atlas to obtain a list of the most variable stars in a survey area of side 5° centred on the bright star Alnilam (ε Ori) in the centre of the Orion Belt. We identify 32 highly variable stars, of which 16 had not been reported to vary before. They are mostly variable young stars and candidates (16) and background giants (8), but there are also field cataclysmic variables, contact binaries, and eclipsing binary candidates. Of the young stars, which typically are active Herbig Ae/Be and T Tauri stars with Hα emission and infrared flux excess, we discover four new variables and confirm the variability status of another two. Some of them belong to the well known σ Orionis cluster. Besides, six of the eight giants are new variables, and three are new periodic variables (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)