热带西太平洋暖池和副热带高压之间的关系

文中研究了热带西太平洋暖池和西太平洋副热带高压的季节性变化和年际变化关系。结果表明,西太平洋暖池面积和副热带高压面积指数季节变化趋势基本一致,暖池中心的纬向移动与副热带高压西伸脊点相反,而经向移动和５００ｈＰａ副热带高压脊平均位置的南北季节性变化非常一致。西太平洋副热带高压的年际变化落后暖池大约３个月左右,用暖池２８℃或２９℃面积指数可以很好地预测出当年６,７,８三个月西太平洋副热带高压的面积指数。     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY-PART I:NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY RELATED TO SST Duan Yihong;Qin Zenghao;Gu dianfeng;Li Yongping, Shanghai Typhoon Institute.Shangh

In the context of a model of tropical cyclone intensity based on an improved meso-scaleatmospheric model, numerical simulation is performed of the track and intensity variation oftropical cyclones (TC) arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a specified searegion. Evidence suggests that the model is capable of modeling quite welt the track and intensityof TC: SST variation leads to an abrupt change in the cyclone intensity: the response of thecyclone to the abrupt SST change lasts 8—12 h.     

西太平洋副热带高压中期变化的数值试验 Ⅱ.热带西太平洋热源的作用

用一个全球谱模式作数值试验,研究了１９７９年６月中旬一次西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进的中期天气过程中热带西太平洋地区理想热源的作用。结果表明：理想热源的作用大约在４天以后可以影响我国东部的副热带高压和中高纬度的环流;理想热源在热带洋面上产生的扰动首先沿副高南边的东风气流向西北方向传播,到中纬西风带后分为两支,一支继续向西北方向传播,另一支转向东北偏东方向传播,两支扰动的共同作用,导致了副热带高压和西风带环流的变化。     

On the role of the Asian monsoon in the angular momentum and kinetic energy balances of the tropics

The balance conditions of relative angular momentum and time-mean kinetic energy and their annual variations are studied for the Northern Hemisphere tropical belt. The belt is divided into two roughly equal size parts, the monsoon and the extramonsoon regions. The data used consist of all available daily rawinsonde reports from the world areological network for the two 5-year periods 1958–63 and 1968–73.In winter, the trade winds in the monsoon and extramonsoon regions are both sources of westerly relative angular momentum for the middle latitude circulation. However, it is found that the angular momentum gained in the extramonsoon region of the Tropics is mostly destroyed by a net southward flow of mass in that region, and becomes regenerated in the monsoon region by a net northward flow of mass there. This excess of angular momentum together with the angular momentum picked up locally in the monsoon region is almost all exported across its northern boundary. It is further found that in winter the Tropics are also an important source of mean kinetic energy for middle latitudes. Again almost all export of kinetic energy was found to take place across the northern boundary of the monsoon sector. Most of this energy must be generated through the pressure gradient term inside the monsoon region itself, the transformation from transient eddy kinetic energy being very small. The proper evaluation of the pressure gradient appears to be the main stumbling block in the present study, preventing us from estimating the generation and thereby, as a residual, the frictional dissipation in the two regions.In summer, the extramonsoon region remains a source of angular momentum, but the monsoon region with its surface westerlies acts as a sink, leading to a sharp reduction (and even a midsummer reversal) of the export into middle latitudes. Also the export of mean kinetic energy almost vanishes in summer, except for a small southward transfer across the equator. The calculations for two 5-year periods give very similar estimates and thereby show the reliability of the results.Parts of this paper were presented at the International Symposium on Monsoons, March 7–12, 1977 in New Delhi, India.     

Second-guessing uncertainty: Scenario planning for management of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery

An important task of natural resource management is deciding amongst alternative policy options, including how interventions will affect the dynamics of resource exploitation. Yet predicting the behaviour of natural resource users in complex, changeable systems presents a significant challenge for managers. Scenario planning, which involves thinking creatively about how a socio-ecological system might develop under a set of possible futures, was used to explore uncertainties in the future of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. This exercise stimulated thinking on how key social, economic and environmental conditions that influence fleet behaviour may change in the future, and how these changes might affect the dynamics of fishing effort. Three storylines were explored: an increase in marine protection, growing consumer preference for sustainable seafood, and depletion of tuna stocks. Comparing across several possible future scenarios, a number of critical aspects of fleet behaviour were identified that should be important considerations for fishery managers, but which are currently poorly understood. These included a switch in fishing practices, reallocation of effort in space, investment in new vessels and exit from the fishery. Recommendations for future management interventions in the Indian Ocean were offered, along with suggestions for research needed to reduce management uncertainty.     

基于TRMM卫星资料的渤海降水遥感估算研究

降水是全球能量平衡和水分循环中的关键要素,但海洋区域实时、准确的降水观测资料难以获取,因此,遥感卫星资料在海洋降水及全球能量和水分循环研究领域具有十分重要的应用前景。本文基于1998~2012年6个气象站点(岛屿或海岸带)的实测降水资料,评估TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)V7版本3B42、3B43两个降水产品对渤海降水量的估算精度,在此基础上,分析并揭示渤海区域年、季和月降水量的时空特征。结果表明:在日尺度,3B42产品对渤海降水量的估算效果总体较差,而在月、年尺度,3B42、3B43产品与实测降水量比较接近,而且,3B43产品的估算精度稍高;总体上,TRMM表现出低估降水的特点,且当实测月降水量大于300 mm时,这种特征尤为显著;1998~2012年,渤海年降水量表现出明显的年际丰枯变化特征,多年均值为631.6 mm;夏季降水量占年降水总量的62.0%,7月是降水量最丰富的月份;空间上,渤海中南部降水量相对较高,而近岸区域降水量相对较低;受大气环流等因素的影响,夏季降水量重心向西北方向偏移,冬季则向东南方向偏移。     

季风低压对台风生成影响的观测分析

选取2007年和2009年发生的4个季风低压个例, 利用FNL资料和CMORPH卫星反演的降水资料, 采用多尺度环流分析法, 对西北太平洋季风环流的多尺度特征进行了分析, 研究季风低压对台风生成的可能影响。分析发现:季风低压生成于季风槽中, 其天气尺度波列的气旋性环流中。虽然以季风槽为特点的低频环流为台风生成提供大尺度气候条件, 但是季风低压通过进一步提供较大的正相对涡度, 可以有效减小Rossby变形半径, 促进热带低压中中尺度对流系统的相互作用和合并, 有利于台风的生成。     

台湾地形对台风Meranti(1010)经过海峡地区时迅速增强的影响研究

台风在趋近大陆过程中强度一般衰减, 但Meranti(1010)北上进入台湾海峡过程中却迅速加强, 且在登陆福建时达到最强。采用中国气象局台风资料、NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料及台湾雷达资料, 结合中尺度数值模式WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)开展台湾地形敏感性试验, 研究Meranti进入台湾海峡过程中的结构变化及迅速加强机理。结果表明:台湾地形是Meranti迅速加强的一个重要影响因子。Meranti北上过程中, 一方面通过台湾岛地形分流作用及其背风坡效应在台湾海峡内诱生中尺度涡旋, 形成正负相间的涡度分布, 激发出与台风相关的扰动波列。地形强迫抬升及扰动波列可加强垂直运动和积云对流, 有利于台风对流发展。另一方面, 台湾地形还通过改变环境气流使台风高空辐散场加强, 环境风垂直切变减小, 形成有利于台风发展的环流背景。比较不同高度台湾地形试验中台风动能收支发现, 台湾地形激发的扰动波列和积云对流增强了次网格尺度系统与台风间能量的交换, 成为Meranti登陆前迅速加强的主要动能源。     

影响辽东半岛两个台风Meari和Muifa暴雨环流特征的对比分析

Meari(1105)和Muifa(1109)是两个路径相似并在辽东半岛产生强降水的热带气旋。但Meari强降水持续时间长,而Muifa时间短。利用中国气象局热带气旋年鉴、FY_2D(0.1°×0.1°)云顶亮温资料、大连地区逐时自动气象站降雨量资料、常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对两个台风影响辽东半岛的降水过程进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)Meari影响辽东半岛时强度较弱,但与低空东南急流相连获得丰富水汽供应,衰减缓慢;Muifa影响时强度较强但与低空急流水汽通道快速断开而衰减迅速。(2)两个台风均进入西风槽区而变性,但两者影响辽东半岛时处于不同的变性阶段。Meari为半冷半暖结构,其北侧中尺度对流活动发展旺盛,非对称结构明显;Muifa低层环流已变性为冷中心,云系结构孤立且无发展。(3)两次过程中辽东半岛位于台风不同的对流发展区域是其降水强度差异的原因之一。辽东半岛位于Meari北侧,低层的水平辐合较强,水平风垂直切变较大,深厚的上升运动维持;Muifa影响下辽东半岛位于其西侧,受偏北风下沉气流控制,不稳定度和动力抬升条件减弱。     

Deep convective clouds over the northern Pacific and their relationship with oceanic cyclones

Based on combined Cloud Sat/CALIPSO detections, the seasonal occurrence of deep convective clouds(DCCs) over the midlatitude North Pacific(NP) and cyclonic activity in winter were compared. In winter, DCCs are more frequent over the central NP, from approximately 30°N to 45°N, than over other regions. The high frequencies are roughly equal to those occurring in this region in summer. Most of these DCCs have cloud tops above a 12 km altitude, and the highest top is approximately 15 km. These wintertime marine DCCs commonly occur during surface circulation conditions of low pressure, high temperature, strong meridional wind, and high relative humidity. Further, the maximum probability of DCCs,according to the high correlation coefficient, was found in the region 10°–20° east and 5°–10° south of the center of the cyclones. The potential relationship between DCCs and cyclones regarding their relative locations and circulation conditions was also identified by a case study. Deep clouds were generated in the warm conveyor belt by strong updrafts from baroclinic flows. The updrafts intensified when latent heat was released during the adjustment of the cyclone circulation current. This indicates that the dynamics of cyclones are the primary energy source for DCCs over the NP in winter.