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51.
本文回顾了近年来有关热带内外地区相互作用的研究进展。它主要包括三个方面:(1)热带外扰动对热地区的影响;(2)热带地区大气了研究;(3)热带对热带外地区的影响。本文内容涉及了有关观测资料分析、理论研究以及数值试验三个方面的研究成果。 相似文献
52.
Regular measurements of the atmospheric ozone in the Brazilian sector were started at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), and Natal (5.8°S, 35.2°W) in May 1974 and November 1978, respectively. The results of the total ozone measurements carried out at these two stations up to 1981 are presented in this communication and compared with other low-and mid-latitude stations. Although Natal is an equatorial station, it presents a prominent annual variation, and the average total ozone content is high compared to satellite measurements. During 1977–78, abnormally low values of total ozone were observed at Cachoeira Paulista. Some preliminary results about the QBO 9quasi-biennial oscillation) during 1974–81 are also presented. 相似文献
53.
Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
S. N. Bavadekar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(1):67-78
The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level. 相似文献
54.
E. O. Oladiran 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(4):673-681
Streamers were injected into a large population of small droplets, of radii about 20 m, confined to a given region of pre-determined shape on a photographic film, and situated in a gap between which a variable electric field can be applied. Results showed that the droplet region behaves like a dipole discharging from both ends if its inclination to the electric field is less than 45° and the field is not less than –230 kV/m at atmospheric pressure.We deduced that streamer intensification will occur at relatively low fields if there exists pockets of large number density of small droplets. 相似文献
55.
Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable. 相似文献
56.
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar J. Sanjay B. K. Basu A. K. Mitra D. V. Bhaskar Rao O. P. Sharma P. K. Pal T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485
This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay
of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using
the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the
major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts
produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements
in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean
basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical
cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and
intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less
than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the
November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach.
A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal
tropical cyclone positions and intensity. 相似文献
57.
Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection
over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional
gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern
(82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection
over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without
this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the
onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient
weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases,
convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T
N
, contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding
threshold for T
N
was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern
bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient. 相似文献
58.
M.G. Shepherd D.L. Wu I.N. Fedulina S. Gurubaran J.M. Russell M.G. Mlynczak G.G. Shepherd 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(17-18):2309
Temperature observations at 20–90 km height and 5–15°N during the winter of 1992–1993, 1993–1994 and 2003–2004, from the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) satellite and the Sounding the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) experiment on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are analyzed together with MF radar winds and UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) assimilated fields. Mesospheric cooling is observed at the time of stratospheric warming at the tropics correlative with stratospheric warming events at middle and high latitudes. Planetary waves m=1 with periods of 4–5, 6–8, 10 and 12–18 days are found to dominate the period. Westward 7- and 16-day waves at the tropics appear enhanced by stationary planetary waves during sudden stratospheric warming events. 相似文献
59.
Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan D. V. Bhaskar Rao D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487
The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn
State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81,
27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary
Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity
experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity
and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found
to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes
gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity
and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution
and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly
overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the
core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The
model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm
in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm
agreed reasonably with observations. 相似文献
60.
S. Abhilash Someshwar Das S. R. Kalsi M. Das Gupta K. Mohankumar John P. George S. K. Banerjee S. B. Thampi D. Pradhan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1491-1509
Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall
is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective
cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy
in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing
the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale
and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using
retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather
radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR)
system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005.
In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out.
The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization
and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified
further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of
these convective storms can be improved. 相似文献