中国南海东部海域气候特征及风浪流极值参数的研究——LAGFD数值模式群的应用

本文采用先进的ＬＡＧＦＤ风、浪数值模式和ＰＯＭ（ＰｒｉｎｃｅｔｏｎＯｃｅａｎＭｏｄｅｌ）三维海流模式对自１９４５～１９９５年间发生并影响南海东部海域的２９９个历史最强热带气旋过程进行数值后报,给出了南海东部部分海域（１９°～２３°Ｎ,１１３°～１１８°Ｅ）中１０００ｍ等深线内６０个点的多年一遇风、浪、流和水位极值,并简要分析了南海东部（１５°～２７°Ｎ,１０８°～１２２°Ｅ）的气候特征,为该海域区域性海洋环境研究与工程开发提供了基础参考数据。     

国家地震烈度速报与预警工程定制软件总体设计

国家地震烈度速报与预警工程现已建设世界上规模最大的、总数超过15000个台站的地震烈度速报与预警观测站网。定制软件是预警工程的核心内容之一,将实现我国地震观测领域数据处理系统的全面升级。本文结合定制软件项目建设目标、业务功能需求等情况,从设计思路、总体架构、分系统功能、部署方式、性能指标和关键技术指标等方面对定制软件总体设计进行介绍。定制软件的总体设计契合预警业务功能需求,使得预警工程具备高稳定性、低延时、高可靠度、高处理性能的数据处理、紧急地震信息服务、数据综合服务和技术支持与保障能力,使地震预警和烈度速报两大功能得到落实,使工程项目的防震减灾效能得到切实体现。     

基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。     

Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western North Pacific Typhoon season of 2018

The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive Pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.     

多尺度系统中台风自组织的研究

在一个4种尺度(副热带高压、台风、β中尺度涡群和γ中涡尺度)共存的系统中,用正压原始方程模式数值地研究台风自组织及其强度变化问题。结果指出:(1)由于多尺度的相互作用,在初始台风衰减的过程中,在该台风的西南方经自组织形成了一个新的台风,其尺度、强度与初始台风相同。在初始台风衰减消失后,新的台风维持一定的强度继续向偏西北方向移动。(2)初始γ中涡的个数和位置对自组织起来的台风的强度有显著影响。其影响机制是非线性相互作用的结果在不同尺度层次的传递。γ中尺度层次或γ中—β中层次的相互作用直接影响到β中层次涡作用的结果,或者使双β中涡合并,或者使双β中涡分离。β中涡层次的相互作用直接影响到台风层次———新台风自组织的过程。这种影响最后反映到自组织起来的台风的强度和路径变化的宏观行为。     

地震动参数速报仪的研制

在出现区域大震后,为了迅速展开有效的应急救援行动,需要及时准确了解烈度分布.目前震动图的获得有震后人工调查、震源参数计算、地震监测台网、地震烈度速报台网等几种方式,其中最有效的是在重点监护区建立烈度速报台网.但烈度速报台网建设往往沿用地震监测台网的模式,建设成本高、台站密度有限、实时数据传输量大.本文研制的地震动参数速报仪采用MEMS加速度计为测震传感器和ARM+Linux嵌入式计算机技术,具有体积小、成本小、功耗低、一体化、智能化的特点;其内置地震信息实时处理算法,能够自动判别地震事件并计算地震动参数;在实际应用中安装简便.通过大量密集布设这种小型仪器而组建的地震动参数速报网络,具有数据传输量小、分布式计算、组成的速报网络可靠性高、能够快速产出高分辨率的精细震动图等特点.     

Drivers of phytoplankton,bacterioplankton, and zooplankton carbon biomass in tropical hydroelectric reservoirs

Studies of carbon sources in plankton communities are important because carbon content has become the main currency used in functional studies of aquatic ecosystems. We evaluated the contribution to the total organic carbon pool from different plankton communities (phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, and zooplankton – C-biota) and its drivers in eight tropical hydroelectric reservoirs with different trophic and hydrological status and different physical features. Our systems were separated into three groups based on trophic status and water residence time: (i) mesotrophic with low residence time (ML); (ii) mesotrophic with high residence time (MH); and (iii) eutrophic with low residence time (EL). Our hypothesis that reservoirs with low water residence times and low nutrient concentrations would show the lowest C-biota was supported. Phytoplankton carbon (C-phy) showed the highest concentrations in the EL, followed by MH and ML systems. The EL group also showed significantly higher zooplankton carbon (C-zoo). No significant difference was observed for bacteria carbon (C-bac) among the three system groups. In addition to trophic status and water residence time, regression analyses revealed that water temperature, light, pH, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were the main drivers of plankton communities in these large tropical hydroelectric reservoirs.     

Quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion models and prediction

The aim of this paper is to compute the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)-specific components of epistemic uncertainty, so that they may be better understood and the model standard deviation potentially reduced. The reduced estimate of the model standard deviation may also be more representative of the true aleatory uncertainty in the ground-motion predictions.The epistemic uncertainty due to input variable uncertainty and uncertainty in the estimation of the GMPE coefficients are examined. An enhanced methodology is presented that may be used to analyse their impacts on GMPEs and GMPE predictions. The impacts of accounting for the input variable uncertainty in GMPEs are demonstrated using example values from the literature and by applying the methodology to the GMPE for Arias Intensity. This uncertainty is found to have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of the model and a small effect on the value of the model standard deviation.The impacts of uncertainty in the GMPE coefficients are demonstrated by quantifying the uncertainty in hazard maps. This paper provides a consistent approach to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps using Monte Carlo simulations and a logic tree framework. The ability to quantify this component of epistemic uncertainty offers significant enhancements over methods currently used in the creation of hazard maps as it is both theoretically consistent and can be used for any magnitude–distance scenario.     

云南鲁甸6.5级地震灾害特点浅析

通过对2014年8月3日云南鲁甸6.5级地震震害开展实地调查,对灾区破坏情况进行总体介绍,并就各烈度区特征和建筑物震害、地震地质灾害、工程结构震害进行分析,初步得出本次地震的一些震害特点.一是灾区人口密度大,人员死亡较集中.人员死亡主要集中在Ⅷ和Ⅸ度区.二是地震振动强,灾区破坏严重.本次地震震源深度12km,极震区烈度高达Ⅸ度,震源破裂在11s内集中释放.三是抗震能力弱,房屋破坏严重.灾区属国家级贫困区,农村民居抗震能力弱,且多数民房坐落在河谷陡坡上,边坡效应加重房屋震害,重灾区砖木和土木房屋成片损毁、倒塌.四是灾区条件恶劣,救灾难度大.震区活动断裂密集发育、地质破碎疏松、地形崎岖不平,又恰值雨季,诱发极其严重次生地质灾害,导致人员伤亡,造成灾区大面积交通、通信、电力中断,救援物资与救援力量无法及时发挥作用.     

ShakeMap在2014年于田7.3级地震快速损失评估中的应用

本文介绍了2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7.3级地震的震害特征,将改进的ShakeMap烈度图成功地运用到了于田7.3级地震的快速损失评估中.结果表明,考虑了场地效应的ShakeMap烈度图明显优于当前“十五”应急指挥系统的衰减关系模型的烈度图,能更好地为地震灾害损失评估服务,其快速评估的结果更接近官方公布的数据.因此,应用ShakeMap技术在震害损失快速评估中,能显著地提高评估结果的准确性.