Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.     

Hydrodynamic Performance of the Arc-Shaped Bottom-Mounted Breakwater

The problem of the hydrodynamic interaction with the arc-shaped bottom-mounted breakwaters is investigated theoretically. The breakwater is assumed to be rigid, thin, impermeable and vertically located in a finite water depth. The fluid domain is divided into two sub-regions of inner and outer by an auxiliary circular interface. Linear theory is assumed and the eigenfunction expansion approach is used to determine the wave field. In order to examine the validity of the theoretical model, the analytical solutions are compared to agree well with published results with the same parameters. Numerical results including wave amplitude, surge pressure, and wave force are presented with different model parameters. The major factors including wave parameters, structure configuration, and water depth that affect the surge pressure, wave forces, and wave amplitudes are discussed and illustrated by some graphs and cloud maps.     

The Characteristics of Storm Wave Behavior and Its Effect on Cage Culture Using the ADCIRC+SWAN Model in Houshui Bay,China

The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.     

基于Ka波段云雷达观测的中国西天山降雨云宏微观物理特征研究

利用Ka毫米波云雷达与自动气象站降雨资料,研究了西天山地区2019年和2020年5～8月的降雨云宏微观特性。结果表明：(1)降雨主要发生在夜间,累积降雨量集中在21:00(北京时间,下同)至次日07:00,降雨频次和累积降雨量相关系数为0.71。大雨强频次虽最少,但对总累积降雨量贡献较显著。(2)小雨强、中雨强、大雨强平均反射率因子最大值分别为30 dBZ、35.8 dBZ和39.5 dBZ,最大平均液态水含量分别为1.5 g m^-3、4.2 g m^-3和7.3 g m^-3。(3)不同降雨强度对应的反射率因子都有两个集中区域,2.0～4.4 km反射率因子集中在15～26 dBZ,地面附近的小雨强、中雨强、大雨强对应的反射率因子分别集中在24～32 dBZ、29～38 dBZ和31～42 dBZ。1.75 km以下中雨强和大雨强液态含水量小于1gm^-3的频率明显少于小雨强,降雨强度的越大降雨粒子径向速度越集中。     

1979～2020年北极和青藏高原臭氧低值区的动力输送特征比较

基于ERA5月平均再分析资料,利用Lorenz环流分解方法从定常和瞬变以及基流和涡旋的角度对比了北极与青藏高原臭氧低值区的动力输送特征。结果表明：动力总输送在两地上平流层作用最强,均使其臭氧浓度降低,且定常输送均强于瞬变输送,纬向与经向输送的作用均大致相反。然而,动力输送在北极地区的作用强度远大于青藏高原地区。北极地区纬向输送使得平流层中上层臭氧浓度降低,平流层下层臭氧浓度升高,经向输送的作用与之相反且强度明显偏弱,二者均主要作用于上平流层。青藏高原地区纬向和经向输送除在上平流层均使得臭氧浓度降低外,二者作用大致相反且强度相当,输送大值区在垂直方向上存在双中心结构,分别位于上平流层与上对流层—下平流层（Upper Troposphere–Lower Stratosphere,简称UTLS）区。两地区纬向和经向输送的差异均主要由定常涡旋输送所造成。青藏高原地区定常与瞬变输送的强度差异没有北极地区大。此外,两地定常和瞬变输送中涡旋对臭氧纬向平均的输送均起到主要作用,体现出涡旋输送在两地臭氧浓度变化的动力输送过程中发挥着至关重要的作用。     

临近寒潮相互影响关系及高层位涡的预报作用

利用ERA-Interm 1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料,对2017年1—2月发生的两次寒潮事件(简称过程A和过程B)的天气环流形势和位势涡度进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)过程A爆发后的冷空气促进过程B的形成;(2)等熵面上的位势涡度可用来追踪并判断寒潮的变化特征;(3)通过350~200 hPa处的位涡值特征可提前6 h预测寒潮开始爆发的时间和强度;(4)上游和下游系统对判断寒潮爆发的特征同样有着重要作用。     

引潮位的Doodson规格化展开及其精度评定

基于引潮位Doodson规格化展开的基本原理以及ELP/MPP02月球历表、Newcomb太阳历表的结构,设计了一个用以代表三角函数的数据结构;并由此自定义了三角函数的乘法与加法算法,将月球、太阳引潮位分别展开至5阶、3阶,振幅绝对值截断阈值为10-7,在展开过程中对"伪波"进行"滤波"处理后,最终得到包含4 686项展开式的引潮位展开表(其中振幅绝对值超过10-6的展开式有2 441项)。以德国BFO(Black Forest Observatory)测站为例,基于DE431历表,通过天球参考系变换计算得到1950—2050年间时间间隔为1 h的法向引潮力基准序列BFDE431;并根据各个引潮位展开表计算得到相应的法向引潮力序列;通过与BFDE431基准序列求差,得到各个差值序列的统计值。计算结果表明,文中给出的展开表对应的差值序列数值在±58×10~(-11)m·s~(-2)(nGal)以内,均方差为12.5×10~(-11)m·s~(-2),与XI89展开表的精度相当。但由于没有考虑行星及地球扁率的影响,仍未达到HW95和RATGP95展开表的精度水平。     

大气动力学中三种Rossby波作用通量的特征差异和适用性比较

大气动力学诊断Rossby波的传播时,通常用波作用通量来表示。常用的三种波作用通量分别为Plumb波作用通量,T-N波作用通量和局地E-P通量。本文详细讨论了这三种方法的特征差异,并结合2016年1月的一次寒潮事件,比较了三种方法在该事件中的适用性。结果表明:1)Plumb波作用通量的纬向分量较大而经向分量较小,适用于振幅较小的纬向均匀的西风带Rossby长波的诊断。2)T-N波作用通量是对Plumb波作用通量的改进,经向分量得以增强,能更好地描述纬向非均匀气流中的较大振幅的西风带Rossby长波扰动。T-N波作用通量计算时,背景场取多年平均的当月气候场较合适,能更好地反映当前季节内的Rossby波传播异常。3)局地E-P通量可以诊断一段时间内天气尺度瞬变波对背景场(定常波)总的调控作用,但无法直接反映Rossby长波的逐时演变(T-N波或Plumb波作用通量则可以)。     

Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).     

盆地沉降史研究的新方法—波动分析

波动分析方法为前苏联学者提出，认为沉积地的演化过程受不同的周期波所控制。介绍了该方法的产生过程，基本原理，工作方法和所能解决的南持问题，最后对该方法进行了评价。