粗差修复的常变量估算方法探讨

针对粗差定位后的修复问题,该文提出了一种估算模式:首先研究出粗差与参数平差值的准确函数关系,在此基础上,通过在原有观测方程中引入常数作为自变量,研究此常数变量平差后的变化值,来定位观测值的粗差并反推粗差的最可靠值。通过和传统方法对比,本算法具有精确度高、收敛快、可靠性强等优点,在观测值粗差定位模糊的情况下,依然可以获得较为理想的处理结果。     

基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化研究进展

本文系统综述了基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化研究,阐述了蒸散发作为非状态变量构建数据同化演算关系的难点和瓶颈,并系统分析了利用当前各种通用水文模型进行蒸散发同化的可行性.基于此,尝试提出了一种易于操作且具有水循环物理机制的蒸散发同化新方案,该方案利用具有蒸散发—土壤湿度非线性时间响应关系的分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM),并进一步完善DTVGM蒸散发机理,构建基于DTVGM水文模型的蒸散发数据同化系统.该新方案将为区域蒸散发精确模拟提供新的思路和借鉴.     

不同资料大气扰动分量对2010年台风鲇鱼强度变化的描述

基于模式分析和再分析资料绘制的天气图是诊断和预报极端天气事件的常用方法。近年来的研究表明,这些资料中的气象变量分解为瞬变气候和扰动两个分量后,其中的扰动分量不但能够很好地指示地面上发生的暴雨落区、热浪与低温的位置,也能指示极端天气事件的异常强度。本文以近年来研究者们广为关注的2010年台风鲇鱼为例,首先分析四家气象机构对台风强度估计的不一致性,并比较不同分析与再分析资料中大气变量对台风强度的描述;然后描述欧洲再分析资料分解的高度扰动和温度扰动之间存在的静力平衡关系,得到大气扰动分量可以直接指示台风强度随时间的相对变化。本文研究指出,各家发布的路径资料以及再分析资料对台风的定强都有差异,但大气变量分解后的扰动分量对台风强度变化有一定指示意义,可为诊断和预报提供参考。     

理解大气资料同化的根本概念

本文阐明随机变量是大气资料同化的根本概念。其根本性可以体现在两个方面：(1) 原理上,大气资料同化的科学实质是建立在随机变量这个概念上。由于将资料同化的可用信息视为随机变量的数据,所以概率论与数理统计学成为资料同化的数学基础,使得资料同化有了基于估计理论的最优标准及其数学形式,成为一门科学。(2) 实施上,基于随机变量这个概念下的数据是理解大气资料同化发展史的钥匙。由于资料同化的具体实施表现为各种同化方法中可用信息的资料融合,将资料同化的可用信息视为随机变量的数据,可以清晰地揭示主流同化方法的发展进程对应着其可用信息在内涵和种类上的不断扩展,这个扩展具体地体现了同化发展史的一个循序渐进的内在发展逻辑。     

Pacific Ocean observation programs: Gaps in ecological time series

How well do existing ocean observation programs monitor the oceans through space and time? A meta-analysis of ocean observation programs in the Pacific Ocean was carried out to determine where and how key parameters defining the physics, chemistry, and biology of the oceans were measured. The analysis indicates that although the chemistry and physics of the Pacific Ocean are reasonably well monitored, ecological monitoring remains largely ad hoc, patchy, unsystematic, and inconsistent. The California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI), for example, is the only Pacific Ocean program in which the zooplankton and micronekton are resolved to species with consistent time series of greater than 20 years duration. Several studies now indicate massive changes to nearshore, mesopelagic and other fish communities of the southern California Current but available time series do not allow these potential changes to be examined more widely. Firm commitment from the global community to sustained, representative, quantitative marine observations at the species level is required to adequately assess the ecological status of the oceans.     

Direct time domain analysis of floating structures with linear and nonlinear mooring stiffness in a 3D numerical wave tank

In this paper, motion response of a moored floating structure interacting with a large amplitude and steep incident wave field is studied using a coupled time domain solution scheme. Solution of the hydrodynamic boundary value problem is achieved using a three-dimensional numerical wave tank (3D NWT) approach based upon a form of Mixed-Eulerian–Lagrangian (MEL) scheme. In the developed method, nonlinearity arising due to incident wave as well as nonlinear hydrostatics is completely captured while the hydrodynamic interactions of radiation and diffraction are determined at every time step based on certain simplifying approximations. Mooring lines are modelled as linear as well as nonlinear springs. The horizontal tension for each individual mooring line is obtained from the nonlinear load-excursion plot of the lines computed using catenary theory, from which the linear and nonlinear line stiffness are determined. Motions of three realistic floating structures with different mooring systems are analyzed considering various combinations of linear and approximate nonlinear hydrodynamic load computations and linear/nonlinear mooring line stiffness. Results are discussed to bring out the influence and need for consideration of nonlinearities in the hydrodynamics and hydrostatics as well as the nonlinear modelling of the line stiffness.     

Simulation of damage in RC frames with variable axial forces

The purpose of this paper is to describe how the methods and concepts of continuum damage and fracture mechanics can be applied to the modelling of the hysteretic behaviour of Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame members under variable axial loads. A frame member is considered as the assemblage of an elastic beam-column and two inelastic hinges, as in conventional nonlinear analysis of RC frames. As a result of the combination of damage mechanics and standard RC theory, a simplified model of damage is proposed and implemented as a finite element (FE). This new element can be used with any non-linear commercial FE program. The numerical simulation of several experiments, for which data were available in the literature, verifies the accuracy of the model. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1997-2003年新疆伽师地震序列时空分布研究

分析研究了伽师地震序列目录。分析结果表明：①1997-2003年伽师地震分为3个发震阶段,不同阶段具有各自的活动特点,第一阶段6级地震频次高,第二阶段5级地震频次高,第三阶段地震强度大,高b值是伽师序列明显起伏前的主要特征;②伽师6级地震经历了由西南向北东再向东南的发展过程,1997年4月16日前发生的6级地震余震分布倾向性不显著,其后发生的6级地震的余震大都分布在主震南侧,2003年2月24日伽师6．8级地震余震分布形态与以往6级地震明显不同,这可能与该区特殊的构造条件有关;③1998年以前伽师6级地震余震扩展不明显,1998年8月27日6级地震余震已显现出扩展趋势,2003年2月24日6级地震余震扩展显著;④伽师强震群6级地震震源深度介于17—31km范围,1997年4月16日后震源深度维持在27km左右范围,表明伽师序列初始破裂从上地壳开始,而优势破裂深度在中地壳;⑤伽师地震整体上表现出由浅到深的分布特征,3个活动阶段5级地震也具有这种特征,多数5级以上地震的震源深度正是震区高速体存在区。     

卫星导航定位系统时间同步技术

卫星导航定位系统测距的基础是测时,而定轨和定位的前提是各观测量的时间同步,因此,时间同步是卫星导航定位系统建设的关键。卫星导航定位系统中时间同步技术包括卫星与地面(星-地)和地面站间(地-地)的时间同步,主要时间同步方法有用于星-地时间同步的双向时间频率传递法(TWSTFT)、倒定位法等,以及用于地-地时间同步的TWSTFT、卫星共视法、搬运钟法等。本文重点介绍TWSTFT和卫星共视法进行时间同步的基本原理、精度分析和卫星导航定位系统的钟差预报。     

升力面方法预报全方向推进器的非定常水动力性能

本文研究了全方向推进器非定常水动力性能的升力面预报方法,基于势流理论和格林定理建立了全方向推进器非定常水动力性能计算的数学模型,然后利用非定常涡格法对全方向推进器的非定常水动力性能进行了数值预报。本文的计算结果和日本水池模型试验结果、升力线方法计算结果对比表明,本文的计算值与试验值吻合良好。