La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Analysis of gravity waves in the tropical middle atmosphere over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) with lidar using wavelet techniques

The capabilities of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the multiresolution analysis (MRA) are presented in this work to measure vertical gravity wave characteristics. Wave properties are extracted from the first data set of Rayleigh lidar obtained between heights of 30 km and 60 km over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) during the Austral winter in 1994 under subtropical conditions. The altitude-wavelength representations deduced from these methods provide information on the time and spatial evolution of the wave parameters of the observed dominant modes in vertical profiles such as the vertical wavelengths, the vertical phase speeds, the amplitudes of temperature perturbations and the distribution of wave energy. The spectra derived from measurements show the presence of localized quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths <10 km. Three methods based on the wavelet techniques show evidence of a downward phase progression. A first climatology of the dominant modes observed during the Austral winter period reveals a dominant night activity of 2 or 3 quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths between 1/2 km from the stratopause, 3/4 km and 6/10 km observed between heights of 30 km and 60 km. In addition, it reveals a dominant activity of modes with a vertical phase speed of –0.3 m/s and observed periods peaking at 3/4 h and 9 h. The characteristics of averaged vertical wavelengths appear to be similar to those observed during winter in the southern equatorial region and in the Northern Hemisphere at mid-latitudes.     

The role of sodium bicarbonate in the nucleation of noctilucent clouds

It is proposed that a component of meteoric smoke, sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO₃), provides particularly effective condensation nuclei for noctilucent clouds. This assertion is based on three conditions being met. The first is that NaHCO₃ is present at sufficient concentration (10⁴ cm^–3) in the upper mesosphere between 80 and 90 km. It is demonstrated that there is strong evidence for this based on recent laboratory measurements coupled with atmospheric modelling. The second condition is that the thermodynamics of NaHCO₃(H₂O)_n cluster formation allow spontaneous nucleation to occur under mesospheric conditions at temperatures below 140 K. The Gibbs free energy changes for forming clusters with n = 1 and 2 were computed from quantum calculations using hybrid density functional/Hartree-Fock (B3LYP) theory and a large basis set with added polarization and diffuse functions. The results were then extrapolated to higher n using an established dependence of the free energy on cluster size and the free energy for the sublimation of H₂O to bulk ice. A 1-dimensional model of sodium chemistry was then employed to show that spontaneous nucleation to form ice particles (n > 100) should occur between 84 and 89 km in the high-latitude summer mesosphere. The third condition is that other metallic components of meteoric smoke are less effective condensation nuclei, so that the total number of potential nuclei is small relative to the amount of available H₂O. Quantum calculations indicate that this is probably the case for major constituents such as Fe(OH)₂, FeO₃ and MgCO₃.     

IMPACT: an implicit time integration scheme for chemical species and families

The implicit time integration scheme of Stott and Harwood (1993) was proposed as an efficient scheme for use in three-dimensional chemical models of the atmosphere. The scheme was designed for chemistry schemes using chemical families, in which species with short lifetimes are grouped into longer-lived families. Further study with more complex chemistry, more species and reactions showed the scheme to be non-convergent and unstable under certain conditions; particularly for the perturbed chemical scenarios of polar stratospheric winters. In this work the scheme has been improved by revising the treatment of families and the convergence properties of the scheme. The new scheme has been named IMPACT (IMPlicit Algorithm for Chemical Time-stepping). It remains easy to implement and produces simulations that compare well with integrations using more accurate higher order schemes.     

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.     

Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation

A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors.     

大气折光对水平角测量影响及对策研究

通过测量实践和试验,分析了大气折光对特高精度边角测量的影响,指出旁折光是水平角测量误差的主要来源,而对边长的影响甚微;同时,边角网中水平角测量时起始方向的选择十分重要,提出了采用测量机器人作自动观测的一种起始方向确定和质量检查方法;并阐述了特高精度边角网布设和施测中为减少大气折光影响的一些对策.     

雾对光偏振态影响的实验研究

测量了不同人土雾浓度下垂直偏振入射光的透射光强。利用实验数据，分析了垂直、平行方向上透射光强的变化趋势。得出平行偏振分量透射光强大致呈指数下降的趋势，垂直偏振分量透射光强先略微上升而后下降。由退偏振度随雾浓度的变化讨论了退偏产生的原因，指出雾浓度较低时，雾滴可近似视为球形。基于光的偏振特性，从理论上分析并计算得到光在雾中传输时透射、散射光强。实验结果对研究光在雾中传输及分析大气中雾对透射光偏振态的影响有一定的参考价值。     

Dynamical Climatology of the Upper Mesosphere, Lower Thermosphere and Ionosphere

The main features of upper atmosphere dynamics as an important part of upper atmosphere climatology are presented. The dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are of special interest. The results are based on the long series of investigations in East Siberia and data from a world-wide network of observatories. We present the regional climatic norms for the prevailing wind and semi-diurnal tide and the main features of the quasi-periodic structure of the wind field. The non-zonality of MLT dynamics is demonstrated as well as regional differences in the response of the wind field to stratospheric disturbances, solar activity variations and geomagnetic storms.