Low-frequency 3-D seismic survey of upper crustal magmatic intrusions in the northeastern Pannonian basin of Hungary

A specially designed 700-km² grid survey, deploying 1000 regularly distributed low-frequency seismic recording systems, successfully investigated one of the most complex geologic environments of the Pannonian basin. The wide-angle signals penetrated through over 1000 m of multi-phase igneous lithology and recognized, for the first time, the underlying enigmatic Permian to Early Triassic basement rocks. Tomographic inversion of the first arrival grid data resulted in determination of an accurate three-dimensional (3-D) velocity field, to a depth of 4 km. The anomalous changes of the spatial velocity data outline the regional extent of the Late Miocene magmatic intrusions, which are covered by over 2000 m of Mid-Miocene to Pleistocene clastics. Complex relationship was found between the surface potential data and the intrusive bodies. This multi-faceted geophysical data analysis established a functional technique for mapping a subsurface with intricate acoustic and structural complexity.     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

Establishment of apparent quantum yield and maximum ecosystem assimilation on Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem

The alpine meadow is widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau with an area of about 1.2×106kn2. Damxung County, located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, is the place covered with this typical vegetation. An open-path eddy covariance system was set up in Damxung rangeland station to measure the carbon flux of alpine meadow from July to October,2003. The continuous carbon flux data were used to analyze the relationship between net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), as well as the seasonal patterns of apparent quantum yield (α) and maximum ecosystem assimilation (Pmax).Results showed that the daytime NEE fitted fairly well with the PAR in a rectangular hyperbola function, with α declining in the order of peak growth period (0.0244 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR) ＞early growth period ＞ seed maturing period ＞ withering period (0.0098 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR).The Pmax did not change greatly during the first three periods, with an average of 0.433mgCO2· m-2· s-1, i.e. 9.829 μmolCO2· m-2· s-1. However, during the withering period, Pmax was only 0.35 mgCO2 · m-2 · s-1, i.e. 7.945 μmolCO2 · m-2 · s-1. Compared with other grassland ecosystems, the α of the Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem was much lower.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

Assimilation and Fractional Crystallization Controlled by Transport Process of Crustal Melt: Implications from an Alkali Basalt-Dacite Suite from Rishiri Volcano, Japan

Mechanisms of fractional crystallization with simultaneous crustalassimilation (AFC) are examined for the Kutsugata and Tanetomilavas, an alkali basalt–dacite suite erupted sequentiallyfrom Rishiri Volcano, northern Japan. The major element variationswithin the suite can be explained by boundary layer fractionation;that is, mixing of a magma in the main part of the magma bodywith a fractionated interstitial melt transported from the mushyboundary layer at the floor. Systematic variations in SiO₂ correlatewith variations in the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopic compositions ofthe lavas. The geochemical variations of the lavas are explainedby a constant and relatively low ratio of assimilated mass tocrystallized mass (‘r value’). In the magma chamberin which the Kutsugata and Tanetomi magmas evolved, a strongthermal gradient was present and it is suggested that the marginalpart of the reservoir was completely solidified. The assimilantwas transported by crack flow from the partially fused floorcrust to the partially crystallized floor mush zone throughfractures in the solidified margin, formed mainly by thermalstresses resulting from cooling of the solidified margin andheating of the crust. The crustal melt was then mixed with thefractionated interstitial melt in the mushy zone, and the mixedmelt was further transported by compositional convection tothe main magma, causing its geochemical evolution to be characteristicof AFC. The volume flux of the assimilant from the crust tothe magma chamber is suggested to have decreased progressivelywith time (proportional to t^–1/2), and was about 3 x 10^–2m/year at t = 10 years and 1 x 10^–2 m/year at t = 100years. It has been commonly considered that the heat balancebetween magmas and the surrounding crust controls the couplingof assimilation and fractional crystallization processes (i.e.absolute value of r). However, it is inferred from this studythat the ratio of assimilated mass to crystallized mass canbe controlled by the transport process of the assimilant fromthe crust to magma chambers. KEY WORDS: assimilation and fractional crystallization; mass balance model; magma chamber; melt transport; Pb isotope     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

TRMM星载测雨雷达和地基雷达反射率因子数据的三维融合

TRMM卫星上的测雨雷达(TRMMPR)探测资料分布均匀且具有很高的垂直分辨率,但灵敏度较低;地基雷达(GR)水平分辨率较高且具有较高的灵敏度,但其垂直分辨率低。通过将TRMM PR与GR反射率因子数据的三维数据融合,得到了更优的反射率因子图像。测雨雷达与地基雷达三维数据融合主要分为以下几步:测雨雷达与地基雷达数据预处理——如去杂波、衰减校正;测雨雷达与地基雷达时空匹配;选取和应用合适的三维图像融合算法;对融合后的图像进行效果评估。试验结果表明:融合后的图像不仅增大了信息量,更好地检测弱降水,还提高了空间三维(3D)分辨率,能更好地反映降水区域细节,且使得数据总体上具有更高的完整性和可靠性。此外,还将基于雷达资料估测的降水数据与地面雨量计数据进行对比,估计反射率因子数据融合在降水测量上的有效性。      

变分同化框架通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束的研究进展

通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束是变分同化框架设计的重要环节。它不仅帮助实现变量间的协同分析,提高观测使用效率,还能改善变分极小化问题的性状。本文在系统梳理通过背景误差协方差引入动力平衡约束的方式、流程的基础上,对求解目前全球和有限区域变分同化系统普遍采用的准地转平衡和静力平衡约束的共性问题和存在的不足作了归纳总结。分析了求解准地转平衡约束的三类方案:动力平衡方程方案、统计方案和动力-统计相结合方案的优缺点。对照比较了不同垂直离散方案下求解静力平衡约束时遇到的欠定问题的表现以及解决途径。最后,展望了基于背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束在赤道等特殊地区、高分辨率同化系统、以及集合-变分混合同化系统发展中面临的挑战和机遇。     

EnSRF雷达资料同化在一次飑线过程中的应用研究

本文利用包含复杂冰相微物理过程的WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,针对2007年4月23日发生在我国华南地区的一次典型飑线天气过程,分别进行了确定性预报和集合预报试验,发现确定性预报能大致捕捉到飑线系统的发生发展过程,但对飑线后部的层云区模拟效果较差。集合预报能够有效地减少模式的不确定性,大部分集合成员对飑线的模拟效果优于确定性预报。进一步将集合预报得到的40个成员作为背景场,采用EnSRF（Ensemble Square Root Filter）同化多普勒天气雷达资料,并将分析得到的集合作为初始场进行集合预报,通过与未同化雷达资料的集合对比,考察了EnSRF同化多部雷达资料对飑线系统的影响。结果表明:EnSRF雷达资料同化增加了模式初始场的中小尺度信息,大部分集合成员的分析场能够较准确地再现飑线的热力场、动力场和微物理场的细致特征,并且模拟出飑线后部的层云结构。通过对EnSRF分析的集合进行模拟发现,大部分集合成员较未同化雷达资料时模拟效果有明显改善。同化后的集合预报ETS（Equitable Threat Score）评分最高,其次是未同化的集合预报,确定性预报的最低。