The mass and radius of the M dwarf companion to GD 448

We present spectroscopy and photometry of GD 448, a detached white dwarf – M dwarf binary with a period of 2.47 h. We find that the Na  I  8200-Å feature is composed of narrow emission lines, owing to irradiation of the M dwarf by the white dwarf, within broad absorption lines that are essentially unaffected by heating. Combined with an improved spectroscopic orbit and gravitational redshift measurement from spectra of the Hα line, we are able to derive masses for the white dwarf and M dwarf directly (0.41 ± 0.01 and 0.096 ± 0.004 M_⊙, respectively). We use a simple model of the Ca II emission lines to establish the radius of the M dwarf assuming the emission from its surface to be proportional to the incident flux per unit area from the white dwarf. The radius derived is 0.125 ± 0.020 R_⊙. The M dwarf appears to be a normal main-sequence star in terms of its mass and radius, and is less than half the size of its Roche lobe. The thermal time-scale of the M dwarf is much longer than the cooling age of the white dwarf, so we conclude that the M dwarf was unaffected by the common-envelope phase. The anomalous width of the Hα emission from the M dwarf remains to be explained, but the strength of the line may be due to X-ray heating of the M dwarf owing to accretion on to the white dwarf from the M dwarf wind.     

Confirmation of the oblique pulsator model for the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 3831

We have detected pulsational radial velocity variations in the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 3831 which are amplitude- and phase-modulated in the same manner as the photometric variations. In particular, the radial velocities show the same 180° phase reversal at magnetic quadrature as the photometric variations. This confirms the oblique pulsator model, and rules out the spotted pulsator model for these stars.     

ASCA X-ray observations of EX Hya: spin-resolved spectroscopy

We analyse the spectral changes over the spin modulation in the intermediate polar EX Hya using archival ASCA data. We find that the modulation can be modelled as either (1) the effect of occultation of the accretion poles by the limb of the white dwarf, or (2) the effect of phase-dependent photoelectric absorption. We argue, on the basis of the partial X-ray eclipse, that the accretion columns in the system are tall, with shock height ∼ R _wd, and hence that the spin modulation is caused mainly by occultation. We find that the temperature distribution along the accretion shocks is incompatible with the calculations of Aizu, except for a restricted parameter regime with a high M _wd. Hence the material in the shock must cool faster than predicted by theory.     

The EC 14026 stars – VII. PG 1605+072, a star with many pulsation modes

We report the discovery of large-amplitude (∼0.25 mag) pulsations in the bright ( V =12.8) sdB star, PG 1605+072. The dominant period is 480 s, but more than 20 periods were present on at least three separate occasions. Frequency analysis of the complete data set yields more than 30 periods. A few of these are harmonics or linear combinations of the strongest modes. Excluding the latter, the periods span a range of almost 400 s, which contrasts with the typical range <20 s for most other EC 14026 stars.
Analysis of multicolour photometry limited any cool companion to being a main-sequence star of type M0 or later. Balmer line profile fitting yielded an effective temperature of 32 100±1000 K and a log g of 5.25±0.10, significantly smaller than in the other stars of the EC 14026 class, and possibly indicative of a more evolved state. The lower gravity is probably responsible for the fact that the pulsation periods and amplitudes are respectively much longer and larger than in other stars of the class. This star is an obvious target for asteroseismological investigation using a multilongitude photometric campaign.     

Discovery of the high-field polar RX J1724.0+4114

We report the discovery of a new AM Herculis binary (polar) as the optical counterpart of the soft X-ray source RX J1724.0+4114 detected during the ROSAT all-sky survey. The magnetic nature of this V  ∼ 17 mag object is confirmed by low-resolution spectroscopy showing strong Balmer and He  II emission lines superimposed on a blue continuum, which is deeply modulated by cyclotron humps. The inferred magnetic field strength is 50 ± 4 MG (or possibly even ≈ 70 MG). Photometric observations spanning ∼ 3 yr reveal a period of 119.9 min, directly below the period gap. The morphology of the optical and X-ray light curves, which do not show eclipses by the secondary star, suggests a self-eclipsing geometry. We derive a lower limit on the distance of d  ≳ 250 pc.     

Influence of weak trends on exceedance probability

Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible non-stationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow. Received: March 27, 1997     

A Two-Dimensional Zonally Averaged Ocean Carbon Cycle Model

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Using Bayesian belief networks to analyse the stochastic dependence between interevent time and size of earthquakes

The purpose of this article is to show how Bayesian belief networks can beused in analysis of the sequence of the earthquakes which have occurred in a region, to study the interaction among the variables characterizing eachevent. These relationships can be represented by means of graphs consistingof vertices and edges; the vertices correspond to random variables, whilethe edges express properties of conditional independence. We have examinedItalian seismicity as reported in two data bases, the NT4.1.1 catalogue and the ZS.4 zonation, and taken into account three variables: the size of thequake, the time elapsed since the previous event, and the time before the subsequent one. Assigning different independence relationships among these variables, first two couples of bivariate models, and then eight trivariatemodels have been defined. After presenting the main elements constituting a Bayesian belief network, we introduce the principal methodological aspects concerning estimation and model comparison. Following a fully Bayesian approach, prior distributions are assigned on both parameters and structuresby combining domain knowledge and available information on homogeneous seismogenic zones. Two case studies are used to illustrate in detail the procedure followed to evaluate the fitting of each model to the data sets andcompare the performance of alternative models. All eighty Italian seismogenic zones have been analysed in the same way; the results obtained are reportedbriefly. We also show how to account for model uncertainty in predicting a quantity of interest, such as the time of the next event.     

初始地应力场多方程回归分析

在初始地应力场分析问题中,采用了多方程回归方法。该模型同时考虑了一组变量(包括自变量与因变量)之间的所有关系。在此基础上,采用逐步回归法进行计算,进一步提高了计算精度。由此,得到了回归效果更显著的初始地应力场。     

1∶10000及1∶50000比例尺DEM信息容量的比较——以陕北韭园沟流域为例

运用比较分析与数理统计的方法,以1:10000DEM为基准,探讨在黄土丘陵沟壑区1:50000地形图所建立的数字高程模型描述地表形态的精度特征。样区为陕北绥德县韭园沟流域,基本技术平台为ARC/VIEW地理信息系统软件,研究结果表明,在该地区内,利用1:50000DEM所提取的降水累积量、地面坡度、地面坡向3种地形因子都不同程度地存在着误差。该研究成果对于DEM应用精度的估算与误差的纠正,都有一定的指导意义。