汶川震区狭陡型泥石流典型特征与防治

汶川MS 8.0强震发生6年来,震区暴发了数量众多、类型多样的泥石流灾害,其中一类可总结为"狭陡型泥石流",其特征指标及防治对策与震前常规泥石流存在显著差异,给灾后重建和灾害防治技术提出了新的命题。在对(极)重灾区泥石流活跃的五大片区(汶川、都江堰、绵竹、北川、安县)进行大量现场调查和资料分析的基础上,提出了强震区狭陡型泥石流的概念并给出定义,提炼了其在形成、活动及危害等方面的典型特征;通过工程实践,分析了其独特的治理难点及相应的防治对策,介绍了几项极具适应性和有效性的防治新技术,可为强震扰动区泥石流治理研究和工程设计提供一类新的思路和借鉴。     

High‐frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics,primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river‐system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub‐daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190 000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Although 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in‐stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic, and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

川滇M≥6.7强震的二维坐标系与时间预测研究

20世纪以来,川滇地区M≥6.7强震时间间隔具有良好的规律性,其地震发生的年份可组成一个二维时间坐标系,并据此建立川滇地区的强震时间预测模型。预测分析表明：未来16年,川滇地区可能存在发生4次6.7级以上地震发生的风险,2012-2021及2025-2029年均有M≥6.7强震信号,且未来强震可能发生在2014-2015、2019与2027年前后。     

2012年6月30日新疆新源-和静MS6.6地震序列震源机制解?

In this article,we use the CAP method to invert the focal mechanism of Xinyuan-Hejing M S6. 6 earthquake on June 30,2012. Our result shows that the best double couple solution of the M S6. 6 event is 299°,68° and 164° for strike,dip and rake angles respectively. The other nodal plane is 35°,75° and 23°. The azimuth and dip angle of the P-axis are 166°and 5°,those of the T-axis are 258° and 26°. The moment magnitude is 6. 3. The estimated focal depth is about 21 km. The predominant rupture direction of this seismic sequence is NWW. The dip angles are between 60° and 90°. The rake angles are in the majority of ± 180°± 30°. The predominant strike of the azimuthal angle of the P-axis is near NS and T-axis is near EW. Preliminary analysis indicates that nodal plane I is the seismogenic fault,which is a NWW-trending,nearly upright left-lateral strike-slip fault.The displacement property,the principal compressive stress of this M S6. 6 earthquake and the P-axis preponderant orientation of this seismic sequence agree with the characteristics of the tectonic stress field of the focal area and its surroundings.     

大地震前体应变临震异常现象

本文对2011年1月至2014年4月间全球发生的80次MS≥7.0级地震前,二张营台和天堂河台Sacks体应变临震异常现象进行了研究,针对复杂震例提出了异常识别的前提条件。统计结果显示,体应变观测对震中距为8000km范围内的MS≥7.0级地震映震和前兆异常反映较好。同时,对异常现象进行了分类和描述,划分了三种异常类型：即固体潮畸变型、突变型和慢地震型,并对各种类型作了统计分析,进行了力学性质初步探讨。从研究结果来看,体应变异常信息对未来全球强震的发生具有一定的预示意义。     

2008年攀枝花6.1级地震序列精定位

利用四川和云南区域数字地震台网震相到时资料,并结合Hypo2000+HypoDD对2008年8月30日攀枝花MS6.1地震序列进行了定位。定位结果表明,地震序列的震中在空间上呈近南北向展布,余震密集区长度约为30km,主震震源深度约为14km。序列深度的分布范围主要为0～4、5～20km,而4～5km范围显示为明显的少震层。沿序列长轴的深度剖面显示,余震区中段存在1个不规则的少震的“空区”,为1955年6?级地震的破裂区,该地震发生在空区的南端。分析认为,2008年8月30日攀枝花MS6.1地震是由汶川8.0级地震后的应力调整造成未破裂的小凹凸体发生破裂所致。余震密集分布区沿垂直于破裂长轴的两个剖面则显示在其北端地震震源分布更深,且断层面向NW倾斜,与已知的红格断裂的倾向一致。     

CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较

通过对15组CMIP3和CMIP5两代模式集合平均对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较,发现CMIP5模式对气温和降水的模拟更接近观测值。CMIP5模式模拟年、春季、夏季、秋季平均气温的相关系数比CMIP3模式分别提升了0.15、0.13、0.24和0.02,冬季下降了0.07。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的平均气温变化趋势的模拟效果比CMIP3有所提高,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3分别减少了0.03℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.01℃/10a、0.06℃/10a、0.14℃/10a。对西北干旱区平均气温年、季的模拟偏差分布上,CMIP5模式的偏差均比CMIP3低1~2℃。但是天山区年、季节平均气温的模拟与整体模拟偏低情况相反,CMIP3和CMIP5分别偏高3~6℃和1~4℃,对夏季的模拟偏高最严重,分别达到6℃和4℃。CMIP5模式整体对西北干旱区降水量的模拟结果与观测值的平均相关系数与CMIP3相差不大,均不超过0.1,而且偏差仍然较大。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的降水量的变化趋势模拟效果比CMIP3有所降低,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3增加了0.67 mm/10a、0.23 mm/10a、0.51 mm/10a、0.11 mm/10a、0.14 mm/10a。CMIP5模式对年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量模拟的均方根误差相比CMIP3分别减少77.6 mm、25.5 mm、25.0 mm、18.8 mm和13.9 mm。在空间上,CMIP5模式对年、季节降水模拟仍然偏高,但是比CMIP3有明显缓解;CMIP3和CMIP5模式对夏季天山区年降水量和夏季降水量的模拟也与大部分区域偏高的趋势明显相反,两代模式对夏季天山区的降水模拟均偏低50 mm左右。     

Seeing financialization? Stylized facts and the economy multiple

One of the most prominent stylized facts about contemporary capitalism concerns its “financialization.” Like all economic stylized facts, however, facts about financialization are recognized by some commentators and not by others. This article offers one explanation why. It argues that the claims we can make about “the economy” depend upon how we envision that economy in the first place. The economy can be pictured in myriad ways – it is multiple, not singular – and different pictures of it enable the identification of different stylized facts about it. So it is with financialization. The article illustrates this by examining the history of two different traditions of picturing the economy. One – national accounting – increasingly has enabled financialization to be seen; the other – mainstream economics – generally has not.     

山西吕梁地区吕梁群变基性火山岩原岩形成年龄、地球化学特征及形成环境

华北克拉通古元古代中期构造环境及演化至今尚存有争议,该时期相关岩浆作用的成因研究可为这些问题的解决提供重要证据。本文对华北克拉通中部山西吕梁地区古元古代中期形成的吕梁群近周营组基性火山岩开展综合研究,获得2 180±19 Ma 的形成年龄,岩石地球化学低TiO₂、高Al₂O₃ 和K₂O,属钙碱性系列。微量元素富集Rb、Ba、Th、U、Sr 等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti 和P等高场强元素,富集Pb,具轻稀土略富集、铕弱异常的右倾稀土模式,与典型消减带弧岩浆产物特征一致。同位素组成显示正ε_Nd（t）= 1.0～2.6 和ε_Hf（t）= 1.8～9.2, 指示它们来源于亏损地幔,低的Ti/Y（246～385）和Ce/Y 值（0.99～1.77）进一步揭示,地幔源区受到俯冲流体的交代和沉积物的参与,是楔尖晶石二辉橄榄岩与石榴石二辉橄榄岩过渡带略亏损地幔区发生部分熔融,并经历了橄榄石、单斜辉石等矿物分离结晶作用而形成。结合同期埃达克岩-高镁安山岩-富Nb玄武岩-安山岩组合以及弧花岗岩类的出现提出,2 200 Ma 华北中部带已演化至活动大陆边缘弧的构造环境。     

人类世生态地质学研究方法及应用研究

地质学家和社会学家广泛关注“人类世”这一新概念,但是,对于“人类世”的时间跨度仍然存在很大争议。在结合前人研究结果的基础上,对人类世提出了新的划分方法:认为人类世是一个以人类活动为主导因素的地质时期,要探讨人类世的生态与环境演化过程,就需要寻找一种有时间序列、分辨率高、分布范围广并且与生物活动紧密相关的沉积层。选取粪土层作为过去生态环境信息记录的新载体,运用多学科交叉的方法探索南极生态、气候和环境变化的问题,是南极无冰区生态地质学的理论基础。南极无冰区生态地质学是人类世生态地质学的组成部分,是沉积学与地球化学、考古学、生态学多学科交叉的结果,它的理论和方法已被成功地运用到北极和中国的南海地区,它应该放在全球的沉积学大平台上,开拓新的领域。并详细讨论了人类世生态地质学的研究方法及应用实例,对于了解人类世以来气候、环境和生态的变化及其与人类活动的关系具有重要意义。