Geographical Information Systems and Geostatistics for Modelling Radioactively Contaminated Land Areas

The Chernobyl plume contaminated vast lands of Europe with radiocaesium (¹37Cs) in 1986 because of the deposition of radionuclides on the ground by wet and dry deposition processes. Nevertheless, in a nuclear emergency, contamination data may be very sparse and there is need to make rapid and scientifically supported decisions. Here we analyze the rainfall field, an important precursor of the wet deposition, during the passage of the plume. Thus, estimating rainfall spatial variability can help to identify possible contaminated areas and associated risks when rainfall exceeded a given threshold. In this paper, we show that the conditional probabilities of exceeding threshold rainfall values could be spatially assessed using the mutual benefits of linking geostatistical and geographical information system (GIS) to quantify the evaluation of the risk involved in decision making. In particular, the non-parametric geostatistic technique, termed Indicator Kriging (IK), enables one to efficiently estimate the probability that the true value exceeds the threshold values by means of the indicator coding transform. Afterward, GIS has been used to find the areas probably affected by wash-out (probability >0.5 that rainfall is above a certain threshold). The experimental study has been focused on a test site in Beneventan agroecosystem (Southern Italy) to model the spatial uncertainty over a continuous area from sparse rainfall data. This enabled to generate probability maps delineating area potentially affected by to contamination to be monitored after wet deposition of Chernobyl releases.     

鄱阳湖周边地区土壤垂向剖面 地球化学特征及第Ⅰ环境深度

通过对鄱阳湖周边厚覆盖区土壤垂深剖面的构成特点、土壤酸碱度、元素分布分配规律的分析研究,探讨了区内元素的相关组合特点及元素在深度方向上"含量稳定性拐折点"的位置,揭示了区域内土壤垂深剖面的地球化学特征与环境意义。根据数理统计原理,结合区域内土壤垂深剖面的地球化学特征和大规模生产的条件,指出区域内土壤第Ⅰ环境的合理采样深度为-150～-180 cm。     

The distribution and natural degradation of cyanide in goldmine tailings and polluted soil in arid and semiarid areas

Farmlands and rivers have been seriously polluted by cyanide from a goldmine tailings dam that collapsed in early spring of 1995 in Yining County, Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. The cyanide distribution in the polluted farmland and the abandoned tailings dam was studied, three and 4 years after the accident occurred. The results indicated that natural degradation of cyanide in soils is slower than in natural water bodies. The cyanide transport in the soil section is similar to freely soluble salts. In arid and semiarid areas, cyanide can be highly enriched in the salt crust in which the concentration is even higher than the fresh tailings debris though cyanide has decomposed for 4 years. In the polluted farmland, the sticky layer in the soil section can highly adsorb and enrich cyanide so it can partly prevent cyanide transfer to groundwater. According to the characteristics of cyanide natural degradation in soil, the measures for prevention and cure of soil polluted by goldmine tailing dam collapse have been discussed.     

2002年12月25日乌恰5.8级地震的长、中、短期跟踪预测和反思

在乌恰地区地震活动呈现长期平静异常的背景下,通过多种方法对2002年12月25日乌恰5．8级地震进行了1-3年的中长期预测。应用“模糊地震活动度”和“空区参数法”两种方法进行了1年和半年的中期预测,结合对该地区小震活动动态的分析与震例分析,尤其是预警地震的分析判断,提出了3个月的短期预测意见,较好地预测了这次地震。最后对预测情况进行了正反两个方面的总结和反思,提出了七点看法。     

长江中下游抛刀岭大型中硫型浅成低温热液金矿床的厘定及其找矿启示

长江中下游是全球重要的斑岩-矽卡岩铜多金属矿床成矿带之一,近年来识别出一些大型明矾石矿床、中小规模高硫型和低硫型金±银矿床,但是否存在中硫型矿化蚀变系统还不清楚.抛刀岭是近年来在长江中下游成矿带新发现的大型独立金矿床,文章通过岩芯编录、短波红外光谱和矿物成分的研究,厘定该矿床矿体主要产于～140 Ma英安斑岩脉中,成矿...     

Organic carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in the intertidal sediments from the Yangtze Estuary, China

The natural isotopic compositions and C/N elemental ratios of sedimentary organic matter were determined in the intertidal flat of the Yangtze Estuary. The results showed that the ratios of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes were respectively −29.8‰ to − 26.0‰ and 1.6‰–5.5‰ in the flood season (July), while they were −27.3‰ to − 25.6‰ and 1.7‰–7.8‰ in the dry season (February), respectively. The δ¹³C signatures were remarkably higher in July than in February, and gradually increased from the freshwater areas to the brackish areas. In contrast, there were relatively complex seasonal and spatial changes in stable nitrogen isotopes. It was also reflected that δ¹⁵N and C/N compositions had been obviously modified by organic matter diagenesis and biological processing, and could not be used to trace the sources of organic matter at the study area. In addition, it was considered that the mixing inputs of terrigenous and marine materials generally dominated sedimentary organic matter in the intertidal flat. The contribution of terrigenous inputs to sedimentary organic matter was roughly estimated according to the mixing balance model of stable carbon isotopes.     

中国东部陆架边缘海海洋物理环境演变及其环境效应

中国东部陆架边缘海是支撑中华民族伟大复兴的经济海域,其重要的战略地位及经济贡献对国家发展至关重要。对海洋环境和生物资源的了解有利于国家的根本利益,有利于加快创建和谐社会的宏伟目标,因而对该海域的深入研究是当前面临的迫切任务。国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目“中国东部陆架边缘海海洋物理环境演变及其环境效应”拟对中国东部陆架边缘海这样一个层化结构多变、多种运动形态耦合的复杂动力学系统中的物理环境的演变及其环境效应进行深入研究,进而揭示海洋环境演变规律,为国防安全、渔业生产等提供科学支持;同时对该项目研究的目的、科学意义、关键科学问题及预期目标等进行了简要介绍。     

“黄河流域水资源演化规律与可再生性维持机理”研究进展

黄河是中国第二条大河,流域面积80万km2,它曾是中华民族文化的摇篮。当前在中国西部大开发中具有举足轻重的重要战略地位。但是黄河流域地处中国的半干旱与半湿润地带,流域的水资源量先天不足,流域内的人均水资源占有量很少,相当全国人均水资源占有量的1/3。由于气候的暖干变化与人类活动的影响,过去30年来,黄河下游与其主要支流频繁地发生了断流,这种发展的征兆不仅加剧了脆弱的水资源供应与需求的平衡,而且给流域上、中、下游原有生态系统与环境带来更大的冲击。黄河的治理终归是涉及国家稳定和国家安全的大事。因此,1999年科技部在“国家重点基础研究发展规划”中立项,启动了5年研究项目“黄河流域水资源演化规律与可再生性维持机理”。作者作为项目的首席科学家根据项目各课题已发表的近900篇论文与几十部专著等大量成果,简要概括了黄河水资源的基础性、技术性和应用性研究等三大方面的进展。     

小区域景观的三维可视化

现实世界的复杂性决定了其在计算机中表达的复杂性,三维模型的构建成为3DGIS中亟待解决的一个核心问题。探讨了三维建模思想以及建模方法,并以ArcGIS和SketchUp交互建模方法为例,论述了三维建模流程以及注意事项,通过模型库的构建,提高了该方法在小区域内景观的三维快速构建效率,所得的模型为3DGIS提供了数据源。实践表明,在有限的经济、技术等条件下,该方法具有较强的可行性和实用性。     

TIN向规则格网DEM转换的新算法

由TIN生成规则格网DEM是基于TIN的离散点数据栅格化的重要一步,在基于一种数学原理的基础上运用逆向思维提出了TIN向规则格网DEM转换的新算法,不用传统的分块和建立索引,而是通过逐个遍历三角形来判断格网节点位于哪一个三角形中并实现格网节点的插值。通过编程实现、测试该算法,证明它具有非常高的插值效率。