三稀矿产资源新兴产业发展及政策建议

三稀矿产资源是战略性新兴产业发展的基础原料,广泛应用在国防、航天、高端电子设备、核工业、发光材料等高精尖技术领域。本文在系统收集国内外三稀矿产资源生产、消费领域、价格以及进出口资料的基础上,提出了促进三稀矿产资源新兴产业发展的政策建议     

承德初霜冻预报指标分析及其预报方法

应用常规观测资料与ncep1°×1°再分析资料,对承德市各县区初霜的时空分布特征及南北县区初霜出现时间的稳定性进行了分析,在对117个初霜环流形势分析的基础上,建立了初霜预报的天气概念模型;筛选因子,分县区确立了预报指标;采用概率、指标、数值预报产品相结合的方法及概率区间取值法建立了分县区初霜预报模型;检验表明,该模型对于中重度初霜冻预报准确率可达95%以上,对轻度初霜的预报准确率可达68%以上,无漏报出现。     

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。     

Use of an inside buffer method to extract the extent of urban areas from DMSP/OLS nighttime light data in North China

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)/Operational Linescan System (OLS) nighttime imagery provides a valuable data source for mapping urban areas. However, the spatial extents of large cities are often overestimated because of the effect of over-glow from nighttime light if a fixed thresholding technique is used. In the work reported here, an inside buffer method was developed to solve this issue. The method is based on the fact that the area overestimated is proportional to the extent of the lit area if a fixed threshold is used to extract urban areas in a region/county. Using this method, the extents of urban areas in North China were extracted and validated by interpretations from Landsat Thematic Mapper images. The results showed that the lit areas had a significant linear relationship with the urban areas for 120 representative cities in North China in 2000, with an R² value of over 0.95. This demonstrates that the inside buffer method can be used to extract urban areas. The validation results showed that the inside buffer model developed in 2000 can be directly used to extract the extent of urban areas using more recent nighttime light imagery. This is of great value for the timely updating of urban area databases in large regions or countries.     

姚家岭锌金多金属矿床围岩蚀变三维空间定量分析研究

姚家岭锌金多金属矿床是近年来在长江中下游成矿带铜陵矿集区新发现的大型多金属矿床。姚家岭锌金多金属矿床的成矿作用具有多阶段性的特点,矿床范围内围岩蚀变强烈,蚀变类型复杂多样。三维地质信息技术及三维空间分析方法为定量化分析围岩蚀变的空间分布以及与矿化之间的相关关系提供了有利工具。本文基于上述方法,有效地对姚家岭锌金多金属矿床的围岩蚀变的分带性及其与不同矿化之间的关联性行了定量分析。较之于传统研究方法,不仅能快速地对蚀变与矿化的分布特征进行分析,还能从定量的角度获取不同信息之间的规律性和相关性。本文采用的相关方法不但有助于更准确的判定蚀变分带及规律,还可为矿床的成矿模式及找矿模型的建立提供定量化的数据支持。     

Study on the Relationship between Large Volcanic Eruptions and Temperature Variation Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Millennium

Volcanic eruptions can significantly cool the global troposphere on the time scales from several months up to a decade due to reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols and feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The impact of volcanic eruptions on global climate are discussed in many studies. However, few studies have been done on the impact of volcanic eruption on climate change in China in the past millennium. The 1300-year and 600-year temperature series were reconstructed based on the six tree-ring temperature proxy data in northeastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Three warm periods occurred in 670-920,1000-1310 and 1590-1930, and three cold periods happened at 920-1000,1310-1590 and 1930-2000 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. There were two obviously warm periods (1385-1450 and 1570-1820) and two cold periods (1450-1570 and 1820-2000) in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Contrasting with volcanic eruption chronology, we analyzed the relationship between volcanic activity and temperature variation in the eastern Tibetan plateau during the past millennium using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) method. The results indicated that the temperature decreased one year after large volcanic eruptions located beteen 10°S and 10°N in latitude in northeastern Tibetan Plateau and two years in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The volcanic eruptions occurred at different latitudes have different impacts on the temperature variations, which may be caused by regional difference, the nature of the eruption, the magnitude of the resulting change in incoming solar radiation, prevailing background climate and internal variability, season, latitude, and other considerations.     

滨里海盆地Z油田油藏类型与成藏因素研究

Z油田主要含油层系包括白垩系-中侏罗统低幅度背斜构造油藏、中三叠统盐檐断鼻油藏和上三叠统岩性圈闭油藏3种油藏类型。通过对紧密围绕盐有关的构造和有效盐窗这两个影响Z油田油气成藏的关键因素的研究认为成藏模式为"盐下生成、盐窗沟通、盐边盐间断层输导、高点聚集、后期保存"。Z油田油源充足,盐窗大而有效,多种有效的输导体系,圈闭类型多而好,埋深适中,储盖层发育且配置良好,侧向遮挡条件具备且后期保存条件良好,可作为今后勘探首选目标区。     

北方某经济开发区地下水污染调查评价

本文应用污染指数法,对北方某经济开发区及周边地下水水质进行了污染评价,结果表明研究区地下水水质以轻污染和中污染为主,局部地区出现较重污染,主要指标为硝酸盐氮、三氯甲烷和三氯乙烯。通过对工业废水、再生水、河水水质的检测,发现研究区地表水水质与污水处理厂再生水排放密切相关,地下水污染很可能与开发区企业排污有关。由于开发区所处位置的环境敏感性和脆弱性,建议今后在开发区及附近继续开展相关研究,进一步查明地下水的硝酸盐氮及有机污染物来源、污染途径,建立完善的监测体系,以便及时切断污染源,保障城市及当地供水安全。     

海洋生态重要性区域的内涵与识别方法研究——以黄河口为例

海洋生态环境目前正在承受来自人类活动和气候变化的巨大压力;急需必要的管理工具或决策支持系统来应对这些压力所带来的生态环境问题。对海洋生境的分类识别是开展生物多样性保护的基础和前提;海洋生态重要区识别作为一种客观、科学和灵活的生境分类评估和选划方法;已被科学界和管理者广泛接受和认可。本文首先介绍了海洋生态重要区的概念内涵以及识别方法的研究进展;给出了海洋生态重要区的定义;之后以黄河口为例;初步建立了针对该区域的生态重要区识别标准和评价方法;对黄河口及邻近海区进行了生态重要性等级划分。本文是对生态重要区识别方法在我国近海的首次应用尝试;研究结果可为我国基于生态系统的海洋管理提供科学方法和工具;也可为其他区域的研究提供借鉴。     

Seeing the ocean through the eyes of seabirds: A new path for marine conservation?

Seeing the ocean through the eyes of seabirds could help meet the challenges of managing common-pool marine resources both in protected and unprotected areas. First, seabirds are top-predators, exposed to all threats affecting the oceans, and this makes them ideal sentinel organisms for monitoring changes within marine ecosystems. Second, seabirds cross both ecological and political boundaries, and following their movements should help making interdependencies within and between marine ecosystems more visible. Third, seabirds are conspicuous and often charismatic animals, which interact differently with different groups of stakeholders and provide the opportunity to acknowledge and discuss each other's values and interests. In this paper, we present these research avenues using a seabirds’ view, for tackling marine conservation and management issues, and we give operational examples of implementation based on our work in the English Channel.