Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.     

Equations of kinetic and available potential energy evolution in wave-number frequency space

The equations of kinetic and available potential energy for the analysis of the growth and decay of atmospheric waves in wave-number-frequency space are derived. The effects of linear and nonlinear interactions of waves in the velocity and temperature fields, the conversions between the available potential and kinetic energies, and the Reynolds and molecular stresses on wave growth and decay are discussed.     

对流层高层偏北气流在梅雨暴雨中的作用

文中对江淮梅雨暴雨过程中的高低空流场特征及物理过程进行分析．结果表明：对流层上部青藏高原东侧常有高空偏北大风轴汇入南亚东风急流中．在这支强北风轴北端发现高空辐散和辐散的增长．亦即有利于低层辐合上升的持续、发展和加强;表明了低层西南急流与高空青藏高压东侧的偏北强风轴之间的次级环流圈,有利于梅雨暴雨的持续．     

欧亚大陆桥(中国段)沿线气候特征与灾害区段划分研究

分析研究了欧亚大陆桥（中国段）沿线的气候特征与地理环境,影响和阻碍铁路运输的气象灾害;作了气象灾害区段划分,并提出铁路安全运输的气象保障与服务。     

THE APPROACH TO REMOTE SENSING OF WATER VAPOR BASED ON GPS AND LINEAR REGRESSION T_m IN EASTERN REGION OF CHINA

The approach to remote sensing of water vapor by using global positioning systems(GPS)isdiscussed.In order to retrieve the vertical integrated water vapor(IWV)or the precipitable water(PW),the weighted“mean temperature”of the atmosphere,T_m would be estimated to the specificarea and season.T_m depends on surface temperature,tropospheric temperature profile,and thevertical distribution of water vapor.The surface temperature dependence is borne out by acomparison of T_m and the values of surface temperature T_s using radiosonde profiles of BeijingStation(No.54511)throughout 1992.The analysis of radiosonde profiles spanning a one-yearinterval(1992)from sites in eastern region of China with a latitude range of 20-50°N and alongitude range of 100-130°E yields the coefficients α and b of a linear regression equation T_m=α bT_s.     

大气动力学方程组的定性理论及其应用

基于完整的湿大气动力学方程组,利用无穷维动力系统的新理论和新方法,系统讨论了强迫耗散的非线性大气系统的定性理论及其应用。将完整的强迫耗散非线性湿大气动力学方程组化为Hilbert空间中一个等价的算子方程,研究了算子的性质及其物理意义,在此基础上得到湿大气系统全局吸引子的存在性定理,揭示出系统向外源的非线性适应特征,并把结果推广到有地形动力作用和非定常外源强迫的情形。同时探讨了大气方程组惯性流形的存在,大气多平衡态产生的根源以及强迫、耗散和非线性对系统解的渐近行为的影响。在理论结果的基础上,提出强迫耗散的非线性动力系统中存在三类时间边界层、方程组简化准则、分解算法的算子约束原则以及支撑吸引子基底的少数自由度的构造方法,探讨了理论在非线性发展方程差分格式的设计和计算稳定性分析、多平衡态的数值分析、数值模式延伸预报的改进、短期气候预测以及一类中尺度系统分析与预测中的应用,指出描述长期过程动力学模式的必备条件,给出初值与模式相协调的合理解释。最后,对今后的研究方向作了展望。     

华南晋宁期造山运动──地质年代学和地球化学制约

综合了前人和作者最新的地质年代学和地球化学研究成果,对华南晚元古代晋宁期造山运动的演化提供了化学地球动力学制约晚元古代早期（0．97－1．0Ga）的皖南、赣东北和桂北蛇绿岩在元素地球化学上具有相似的岛弧特征,但它们的Nd同位素组成明显不同新获得的高精度结石U－Ph年龄资料表明,桂北地区的本洞、三防和元宝山等三个主要花岗岩岩体均形成于820-825Ma,排除了本区有中元古代晚期花岗岩的存在．扬子南缘中元古代到三叠纪各个时代地层中的泥质沉积岩的TDM在晚元古代早期从约1．8Ga急剧降低至约1．3Ga,反映了这个时期的沉积物源区有大量新生馒源物质的加入．根据研究资料,提出了华南和扬子块体晋宁期陆-弧-陆碰撞模式     

Dependence of Atmospheric Transparency Variations on Solar Activity

The atmospheric spectral transparency variations at 344 nm and 369 nm, averaged at eight Soviet stations between 69°N and 55°N, have been compared with sunspot numbers, or Wolf numbers (WN). The data were taken for the seasonal interval May-August during the period 1972 – 1989. Good negative correlations –0.76 and –0.82 have been found. The correlation coefficient between aerosol extinction at 344 nm and WN is equal to +0.75. Insignificant correlation is found for the transparency variations at 344 nm for stations situated to the south of latitude 50°. The best correlation with WN for both transparency and aerosol extinction at northern stations occurs for the shift of WN ahead of the optical parameters by 6 months. The connection of transparency with cosmic rays in Apatity is also examined. It displays a sign opposite to that for WN, smaller values of the correlation coefficient, and an improbable shift of transparency ahead of cosmic ray intensity. The relative changes of the transparency during a solar cycle can be evaluated at 10% in the ozone-free UVA region     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon by general circulation models

Summary The monsoon simulations of four general circulation models are illustrated. Additional results from the Meteorological Office model showing factors that are important in determining its simulation are presented. The large-scale flow patterns of all the models reproduce the large-scale flow fairly realistically, but more detailed characteristics and, in particular, the rainfall, are poorly represented.