Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio in the Study of Seismicity in the Region of Iran

The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.     

Comprehensive Multi-Level Exploration of Buried Active Faults： an Example of the Yinchuan Buried Active Fault

The paper introduces the steps and methods of multi-approach,multi-level exploration of buried faults in thick Quaternary sediment regions by taking the test exploration of the Yinchuan active fault as example.Based on the comprehensive analyses of previous data,we choose the Xinqushao Village of Xingqing District of Yinchuan City as the test site for the comprehensive exploration.Firstly,we adopted shallow seismic investigation with group intervals of 10m,5m and 1m to gradually trace layer by layer the master fault of the Yinchuan buried fault from a deep depth to a shallow depth where drilling could be used.Then,with composite geological profile drilling,we determined the precise location and dip angle of the fault.The drilling show the buried depth of the upper offset point is 8.3m.Finally,large-scale trenching revealed that the actual buried depth of the upper offset point of the fault is 1.5m from the ground surface and there are paleoearthquake events of 5 stages.Combined with the preliminary result of corresponding sample age,we conclude the Yinchuan buried fault is a mid to late Holocene active fault.     

REGULATION OF FLOW AND SEDIMENT LOAD IN THE YELLOW RIVER

Small runoff, large sediment load, and incompatible relationship of flow and sediment load are very important characteristics of the Yellow River. They are also the crux of the most prominent problems of the Yellow River. To solve these problems, the regimes of flow and sediment load have to be improved by increasing water, reducing sediment load, and by using reservoirs to regulate flow and sediment load. The results of experiments for regulating the flow and sediment load in the last three years by the Xiaolangdi Reservoir have indicated that this measure is a realistic and effective way to mitigate the prominent problems in flood control of the Lower Yellow River at present and in the near future. However, the regulation system is still imperfect. It is advisable to speed up the pace of research and construction of the system for regulating flow and sediment load.     

洪泽湖枯水年比较及与ENSO事件关系

本文利用1954－1999年洪泽湖水文资料，总结出1999年干旱年汛期湖水入不敷出属历史旱年罕见。同时对湖区的干旱年与ENSO事件关系作了初步研究，得出拉尼娜事件结束的当年和次年洪泽湖都不会出现干旱年。     

北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟

文中利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计的两层大气环流模式 ,模拟研究了北极海冰厚度和面积变化对大气环流的影响 ,尤其是对东亚区域气候变化的影响。模式中海冰厚度处理趋于合理分布 ,导致东亚冬、夏季风偏强 ,使冬季西伯利亚高压和冰岛低压的模拟结果更趋合理 ;另一方面 ,海冰厚度变化可以激发出跨越欧亚大陆的行星波传播 ,在低纬度地区 ,该行星波由西太平洋向东太平洋地区传播 ;海冰厚度变化对低纬度地区的对流活动也有影响。冬季北极巴伦支海海冰变化对后期大气环流也有显著的影响。数值模拟结果表明 :冬季巴伦支海海冰偏多 (少 )时 ,春季 (4～ 6月 )北太平洋中部海平面气压升高 (降低 ) ,阿留申低压减弱 (加深 ) ,有利于春季白令海海冰偏少 (多 ) ;而夏季 ,亚洲大陆热低压加深 (减弱 ) ,5 0 0 h Pa西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北 (南 )、强度偏强 (弱 ) ,东亚夏季风易偏强 (弱 )。     

中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。     

强弱南海夏季风活动及大气季节内振荡

应用ＮＣＥＰ再分析资料和中国降水资料，分析研究了对应南海强、弱夏季风的环流形势及其与之相应的中国东部的降水异常。其结果表明，由强、弱夏季风所引起的中国气候异常是完全不同（甚至反相）的。分析大气季节内振荡（ＩＳＯ）的活动还表明，对应大气强（弱）南海夏季风，南海地区 ８５０ ｈＰａ也有强（弱）大气 ＩＳＯ；而强、弱南海夏季风环流（２００ ｈＰａ和 ８５０ ｈＰａ）主要由异常的大气ＩＳＯ所激发。本研究还揭示了南海地区大气ＩＳＯ的变化往往与江淮地区大气ＩＳＯ的变化反相，例如南海地区的强（弱）大气ＩＳＯ常与江淮流域的弱（强）大气ＩＳＯ相对应。对于大气ＩＳＯ的强度，一般多表现出局地激发特征，经向传播相对较弱。     

辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。     

峰谷平均法及其在计算浅源合成地震图中的应用

为了计算在震源和接收点深度相同或相近情况下分层半空间介质中的合成地震图,在重复平均法的基础上加以改进,提出一种有效的数值积分方法--峰谷平均法.根据被积函数的变化特点,将波峰和波谷值抽取出来组成慢收敛序列,利用重复平均法快速而准确地求出其极限值.与半解析方法相比,本文方法不仅数学处理上非常简单,而且易于数值实现.数值试验表明,本文方法是准确和高效的.     

APPLICATION OF A NEW METHOD IN STUDYING THE SCATTERED STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIP OF UNSTEADY FLOWS

1 INTRODUCTIONThe macroscopic vedation of the stage-discharge relationship of unsteady nows in alluvial rivers is animPortant and comPlex problem. The Jinjiang reach of the Middle Yangtze Xiver swells often and theflood defence of the reach is the most serious. The stage-discharge relationship is the basic featore of theflow characteristics. The three hydrological stahons, Chenglingii station (at the exit of the DongtingLak), Jianll station and Luoshan station, are key stations on the…