关于地震预报决策程序问题的讨论

地震预报决策是大家所关心的问题。地震预报决策正确与否,关系到能否达到减灾目的。科学的地震预报决策程序是实现正确的地震预报决策的保证。本文就地震预报决策中有关决策目标的确定,地震预测,震害预测,地震对策,预报决策备择方案的制定及评估,决策方案的选择及实施等问题进行了讨论。     

石渠5．1级地震与德格5．0级地震灾害对比

本文根据现场调查资料描述了四川省相邻的两县石渠县和德格县分别发生的Ｍｓ５．１和５．０级地震的灾害情况，并对这两次地震的灾害特征和灾害环境等作了对比。虽然这两次地震的震级相近，宏观震中仅相距约１３０ｋｍ（直线距离），但地震所造成的经济损失和社会影响却相差较大。导致这种灾害明显差异的原因主要是先前的冻胀灾害和自然地理环境以及建筑物场地条件的不同。     

大孔隙与大孔隙率矿石的石蜡法体重测定中的修正问题

以伽玛测井解释含量确定铀矿储量时，矿石体重应该是天然状态下的体重，当矿心孔隙度较大而有部分失水，并存在表面大孔隙时，封蜡法所测得的体重系统偏小。对此，本文改进了测定方法，提出了修正方案，并以某矿床为例分析了产生表面孔隙的原因及修正后的具体结果。     

闽南漳州沙建温泉区的微震观测

1982年9-12月,在漳州温泉区布设了台网进行微震观测。结果表明,在漳州及其以北的沙建温泉区一带均有微震与小震群活动,震级为M_s=-1～1级,震源为3-14km。用震源的分布、震源机制解和微震综合断层面解的结果,研究了地质断裂的现今活动性及其与温泉的关系。认为区内东西向与北东向断裂是控制温泉分布的主要构造,而北西向断裂则是温泉的涌水构造。经探明,在有浅层热储的漳州市以及地质断裂发育的沙建地区,地震波速与介质泊松系数均低于正常值。此外,台网尚观测记录到一些异常的振动现象。根据地震的综合信息,探讨了研究区微震活动与水热活动的关系。     

The Chemical Composition of Global Subducting Sediments and Its Geological Significance

Subducted sediments play an important role in crust-mantle interaction and deep mantle processes, especially for subduction zone magmatism and mantle geochemistry. The current rate of Global Subducting Sediments (GLOSS) is 0.5~0.7 km³/a. The GLOSS are composed of terrigenous material(76 wt.%), calcium carbonate(7 wt.%), opal(10 wt.%) and mineral-bound H₂O⁺(7 wt.%). The chemical compositions of GLOSS are similar to those of upper continental crust which is mainly controlled by the terrigenous materials, and yet the materials formed by marine processes will dilute the terrigenous materials. The components of subducted sediments are different among trenches. In the accretionary margin, the components of subducted sediments are similar to those of the upper crust, while in the non-accretionary margin the components are terrigenous materials plus those produced by marine processes. During subduction, subducted sediments will released fluids, melt or supercritical fluid to affect island arc/back-arc basin magmatism by means of aqueous fluid or sediment melt. In addition, a part of subducted sediments, together with underlying altered oceanic crust/lithosphere, recycle into the mantle and contribute to the mantle heterogeneity. Geochemical tracers indicate that subducted sediments play variable contributions to the magmatic processes in different tectonic setting. Thus, subducted sediments play an important role in two relatively independent dynamics systems (plate tectonics and mantle plume), as well as related mantle evolution models. As a result, by accurately calculating the compositions of subduction sediments and using various geochemical indicators, we can further limit the input and output fluxes of various elements or isotopes, and then obtain more accurately residual subducted components, which can provide us some important clues for geodynamic process.     

诸广花岗岩体放射性水异常的某些特征

本文以寻找铀矿为目的,在该岩体140Km~2面积上进行水化学普查,发现水异常370个,其特征为:若异常多且成片出现,则预示着有单个矿体规模不大的矿体群存在;条带状展布的水异常预示着存在方向相同的矿化带;阻水阻气构造带近旁之异常预示水源上方存在矿化;水温偏高之水异常与矿化关系密切;与矿化有关的多为铀—氡混合异常;大构造处之水异常并不表示此构造存在矿化,面往往是在其附近次一级构造中成矿.     

位移时空综合分析法及其在深基坑中的应用

对于岩土工程设计和施工来说,如何对监测所获的位移信息进行分析十分重要。以往主要采用位移-时间的分析方法。但为了使信息在修改设计和指导施工方面起更大作用,本文提出位移空间比较分析法,并主张与常用的位移-时间分析方法结合使用,以形成所谓位移时空综合分析法。在济南彩云大厦深基坑等的成功应用,表明该法是可行的。     

珠江三角洲电力系统震害预测

在对珠江三角洲电力系统进行抽样调查的基础上，给出了电力系统中网络节点和架空线路的平均破坏率矩阵，并结合地震危险性定数法分析结果预测珠江三角洲电力系统的震害情况。     

珠江三角洲通信系统震害预测

基于珠江三角洲通信建筑物的调查资料，对典型的通信建筑物做了时程地震反应分析和单体震害预测；对另一些建筑物做了群体震害预测；并就通信设备震害预测问题做了简单评述。